Empiric Student Property Share Discussion Threads

[briarberry] 02/11/2006 13:53

lagging inflation, not sure how long this will last for...


unit labor costs rose by 3.8 pct in the third quarter. In the past twelve months, unit labor costs have risen 5.3 pct, the fastest annual gain since the fourth quarter of 1982.

[briarberry] 01/11/2006 20:30

SOX - excess chip stockpiles are not going away...


SAN JOSE, Calif. - After two quarters of ballooning semiconductor inventories in the first half of 2006, early results for the third quarter indicate that excess chip stockpiles are not going away, according to iSuppli Corp. (El Segundo, Calif.)

iSuppli's updated estimate shows excess semiconductor inventory in the global electronics supply chain in the third quarter remained flat at the second-quarter level of $3.9 billion.

''After excess inventories rose to $3.9 billion in the first half of the year, the overloaded situation in the supply chain was expected to ease slightly moving into the second half,'' said Rosemary Farrell, semiconductor inventory analyst for iSuppli, in a statement. ''However, based on reported financial results, the third quarter will end up looking much like the second quarter,'' Farrell said. ''This means that the stress on the supply chain caused by excess inventory will remain after the holidays.'' For semiconductor suppliers, the second half of the year already began with an overload of microprocessors that quickly spread across the supply chain. Typically, days of inventory (DOI) at semiconductor suppliers recede slightly moving from the second to the third quarter, according to the research firm.

[briarberry] 29/10/2006 21:41

globalization, by the sounds of it if the USA slows, so will Japan & China...


Japan's recovery

...While they have had an upbeat call on the overall economy for most of the past three years, it has been much more of a capex and exports story than one driven by organic growth in consumer demand.

Collectively, the US and China currently account for fully 37% of total Japanese exports - by far, the largest and most concentrated piece of Japan's external demand.

[briarberry] 29/10/2006 10:26

Inflation, as you know, the Fed say that they're watching wage inflation (chart below), so until that peaks they'll probably be sitting on their hands (no rate cuts).

The "cheap from China" effect could be topping out?

Also, many people are saying that the only thing holding the USD up is high rates

[briarberry] 29/10/2006 10:01

GDP < 1% ... here it is on Bloomers...


U.S. Data Fluke Exaggerated Growth, Will Be Reversed (Update1)

By Carlos Torres

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- An unexpected increase in auto production last quarter was a statistical fluke that will be reversed, making current U.S. economic growth even weaker, according to a former Commerce Department economist.

Last quarter's annualized 26 percent increase in auto production shocked Joe Carson, now director of economic research at AllianceBernstein LP in New York. Without the gain, the economy would have grown at an annual rate of 0.9 percent, not the 1.6 percent the Commerce Department reported today.

The economy will probably grow at an annual pace of 1 percent from October through December

[briarberry] 29/10/2006 09:13

GDP... John Maudlin was good this week, said GDP was actually lower than reported (GDP < 1%), the reported figure was boosted due to the statistical way the data is compiled.


This will lessen the wealth effect:




ALSO...

"Homebuilders have a clear advantage over homeowners, said James Bortz, a real estate agent in Chandler."

"'They're giving out a lot of concessions to get these houses sold, whereas the people who are already in them and trying to sell are more or less locked into a price or have a price that they have to have,' he said. 'I've gone out to new home sales with a buyer and they automatically will give them $40,000 off, then they'll come back and say we can give you another $10,000 if you use our lender, and we can throw in a washer and dryer, etc.'"

"As for 'flippers,' 'it means that the risk they assumed when they started speculating in real estate is for real,' Brown said. They're seeing the size of the risk for that kind of investment,' he said. 'Frankly, they shot the dice. Its a tough time to sell right now.'"

"A lot of people bought houses thinking they could live in them for a year or two, and then they would double in price, 'and it's just not happening,' Bortz said. 'You have a lot of people who took these low interest rates (adjustable rate mortgages) that are now coming due and they can't afford the payments now, so they've got to get rid of the house,' he said."

"'Homebuilders are desperate,' Bortz said. 'You still see a lot of building, but those were the ones that were already started or were planned, or paid for. They have to move their inventory. Worst possible scenario for them is they'll roll them all the way back to a break-even point for them, which is still in their favor and not the resale person.'"

"In the meantime, the number of single-family homes on the Valley market was 45,500 last month, up sharply from about 15,000 homes in August 2005, and lots of homes are just sitting on the market month after month, he said.

[briarberry] 28/10/2006 15:08

wheat - the price looks high but when adjusted for inflation it's still low compared to prior price peaks

US Wheat Stocks to Use Ratio - is on the low side



The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics estimated their wheat crop at 9.5 million tons, down from 25 million tons a year ago.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture cut its 2006-07 global wheat production estimate by 11 million tons to 585.1 million tons. This in turn led to a 7.1 million-ton drop to global ending stocks to 119.3 million tons, the lowest stocks figure in 25 years.

Argentina may limit wheat exports in an attempt to keep domestic prices down. Argentina is also suffering dry conditions.




Drought's toll: grain harvest worst in 10 years

Daniel Lewis, Regional Reporter
October 28, 2006

With parts of NSW experiencing their driest weather on record, the state's winter-planted grain crops have been devastated and Australia is heading for its smallest harvest in more than 10 years.

[briarberry] 26/10/2006 22:57

earnings next year...

Upside guidance this earnings season has not been as positive. Just six percent of companies have guided higher (so far), which is the lowest level seen since the first quarter of 2003.

[briarberry] 26/10/2006 16:51

The median price for a new home sold in September was $217,100, a drop of 9.7 percent from September 2005. It was the lowest median price for a new home since September 2004 and the sharpest year-over-year decline since December 1970


Durable Goods Orders
Excluding nondefense aircraft (the Boeing order), new orders actually fell 1.1 percent, following a 0.5 percent boost in August.

[briarberry] 25/10/2006 18:15

gasoline is starting to bounce, commercials are net long, cpi is going to be interesting if this holds up

[briarberry] 25/10/2006 18:08

SPX spike - I've been told that they pulled a stunt like this before, on 5th Sept 2000, so yes it was probably just scam to mug traders holding shorts

[briarberry] 23/10/2006 09:04

SPX spike... obviously, if the SPX goes down, and the spike high (Dec 1398) turns out to be the top I'll change my view about the spike, it seems more than a bit suspect to me

[briarberry] 23/10/2006 00:32

SPX - there was a big spike up in the futures when they reopened in the US (I think about 20 pts), I'm guessing the fall in crude price scared a lot of US traders into closing their shorts

[briarberry] 22/10/2006 23:34

GOOG, saw this on another site, if this is right GOOG insiders are selling $billions of their stock

[briarberry] 22/10/2006 23:31

sentiment, people are starting to buy the higher prices (this really is a mugs game)...


AAII reported 54.20% Bulls and 29.77% Bears (this week) vs. 48.98% Bulls and 37.76% Bears (last week).

Investors Intelligence reported Bulls unchanged at 52.2% vs. 52.2%, and Bears at 30.0% vs. 30.4%.

LowRisk reported 54% Bullish vs. 36% Bullish the previous week, and 26% Bearish vs. 42% Bearish the previous week.

[briarberry] 22/10/2006 23:26

S&P earnings - John Mauldin - October 20, 2006


S&P think that reported earnings will be lower in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2007 than they are in the same respective quarters of this year, by as much as 6%!

Basically, S&P analysts are expecting a lot of write-offs and other expenses to crop up later next year.

So, even without a recession or an economic slowdown, earnings are likely to disappoint next year. And when the expectations of investors are disappointed, it creates problem for stock valuations.

[ian56] 20/10/2006 11:15

Yes, I am watching the banks as well.
110 is the lower trendline from Oct 05 and Jul 06.
At the moment the move down from 4th Oct could be impulsive.

Interesting comment mixed in with JPM's results.
Something along the lines of - credit conditions have been benign but we are repositioning for an expected return to more normal or even adverse conditions next year.

Regards,
Ian

[briarberry] 19/10/2006 21:54

SPX - GOOG could be the good news that the shorts have been waiting for (from a contrarian point of view, obviously), could see another 1% up on the SPX before it tops out though :)


Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Google Inc., owner of the most-used Internet search engine, said third-quarter profit almost doubled as the company sold more advertising and extended its lead over Yahoo! Inc.

Net income rose to $733.4 million, or $2.36 a share, from $381.2 million, or $1.32, a year earlier, Google said today in a statement distributed by Business Wire. Revenue rose 70 percent to $2.69 billion. Excluding sales passed on to partners, revenue rose to $1.86 billion, compared with the $1.8 billion estimate of Jefferies & Co.'s Youssef Squali.

[briarberry] 19/10/2006 20:09

Home builder Ryland Group Inc. said Wednesday that its third-quarter profit fell 26% as sales incentives reduced earnings. Ryland said new orders fell 45.6% to 2,372 from 4,361 in the same period last year.

[briarberry] 19/10/2006 11:43

BKX component WM, profit declined 8.9 percent...


Washington Mutual Earnings Fall Short of Estimates (Update1)

By Elizabeth Hester and Christine Harper

Oct. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Washington Mutual Inc., the largest U.S. savings and loan, said third-quarter profit declined 8.9 percent, missing analysts' estimates, as demand for home mortgages flagged and short-term interest rates climbed.

Net income dropped to $748 million, or 77 cents a share, from $821 million, or 92 cents, a year earlier, the Seattle- based bank said in a statement.

Washington Mutual has cut more than 9,700 jobs, or 16 percent of its workforce, so far this year.






the S n P bull bus seems to be leaving the financials behind

[briarberry] 19/10/2006 00:54

The scope for America's struggling property market to improve significantly appeared to be limited. Permits for future ground-breaking, a gauge of builders' optimism, fell by 6.3 per cent in September to 1.619 million units a year, the lowest rate since October 2001.

[briarberry] 19/10/2006 00:46

The U.K. factory workforce shrank by 82,000 in the quarter through August from a year earlier to 3.04 million, the lowest since records began in 1978, the statistics office said.

[briarberry] 19/10/2006 00:42

UK inflation...

John Butler, of HSBC, said that the key figure in the release was core goods prices, which exclude food, drink, tobacco and petrol and which rose by 0.4 per cent year on year, the first annual rise in the measure of prices on the high street since June 1998.

Analysts were also troubled by the rise in the retail price index (RPI), a wider measure of inflation that includes mortgage interest payments, which climbed to 3.6 per cent, the highet rate since June 1998.

The RPI is widely used to set wages and economists gave warning that, with the wage-bargaining season approaching, price rises were likely to feed through into the labour market.