Empiric Student Property Share Discussion Threads

[briarberry] 01/9/2006 10:24

US: Another Post-Bubble Shakeout

Stephen Roach (New York)

Five and a half years ago the equity bubble popped. Within six months, the US economy went into mild recession, and the global economy was quick to follow. Today, America's housing bubble is finally bursting. Is the die cast for another bubble-induced downturn in the US and global economy?

[briarberry] 28/8/2006 14:09

Interesting chart, would be amazing if it turns out like this ?


The following quote and chart is taken from John Maudlin's frontlinethoughts.com. It is attributed to David Rosenberg at Merrill Lynch.

"The chart below is rather intriguing - the NAHB homebuilders index leads the S&P 500 by 12 months and with a near-80% correlation - a correlation that over time has actually strengthened, owing to the growing influence that the real estate market has exerted on the overall economic and financial landscape over the past five years. In fact, we can trace almost two-percentage points of the 3 1/2% average annual rate in real GDP over that time frame to the boom in housing construction and home prices - the direct impact on homebuilding, the spin-offs to other sectors like real estate services, architecture, engineering, legal, etc and the multiplier impact from the 'wealth effect' on consumer spending, especially on home improvements and household furnishings."

[briarberry] 28/8/2006 13:29

I think we could be near a turning point: "corporate profits have climbed to their highest share of US GDP since the 1960's"



Real Wages Fail to Match a Rise in Productivity

By STEVEN GREENHOUSE and DAVID LEONHARDT
Published: August 28, 2006

The median hourly wage for American workers has declined 2 percent since 2003, after factoring in inflation. The drop has been especially notable, economists say, because productivity - the amount that an average worker produces in an hour and the basic wellspring of a nation's living standards - has risen steadily over the same period.

As a result, wages and salaries now make up the lowest share of the nation's gross domestic product since the government began recording the data in 1947, while corporate profits have climbed to their highest share since the 1960's. UBS, the investment bank, recently described the current period as "the golden era of profitability."

Until the last year, stagnating wages were somewhat offset by the rising value of benefits, especially health insurance, which caused overall compensation for most Americans to continue increasing. Since last summer, however, the value of workers' benefits has also failed to keep pace with inflation, according to government data.

At the very top of the income spectrum, many workers have continued to receive raises that outpace inflation, and the gains have been large enough to keep average income and consumer spending rising

In the first quarter of 2006, wages and salaries represented 45 percent of gross domestic product, down from almost 50 percent in the first quarter of 2001 and a record 53.6 percent in the first quarter of 1970, according to the Commerce Department. Each percentage point now equals about $132 billion.

Total employee compensation - wages plus benefits - has fared a little better. Its share was briefly lower than its current level of 56.1 percent in the mid-1990's and otherwise has not been so low since 1966.

Over the last year, the value of employee benefits has risen only 3.4 percent, while inflation has exceeded 4 percent, according to the Labor Department.

In Europe and Japan, the profit share of economic output is also at or near record levels, noted Larry Hatheway, chief economist for UBS Investment Bank, who said that this highlighted the pressures of globalization on wages. Many Americans, be they apparel workers or software programmers, are facing more competition from China and India.

In 2004, the top 1 percent of earners - a group that includes many chief executives - received 11.2 percent of all wage income, up from 8.7 percent a decade earlier and less than 6 percent three decades ago, according to Emmanuel Saez and Thomas Piketty, economists who analyzed the tax data.

[briarberry] 21/8/2006 18:47

US housing

[briarberry] 13/8/2006 20:33

a few folks are pointing to the chart of this US Credit Card Company as a sign of things to come ????

took a hit last week...

Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE)

[robby balboa] 11/8/2006 09:26

It's only a click away?!

[bluenose851] 11/8/2006 09:26

thanks anyway rocky

[bluenose851] 11/8/2006 09:26

too far away for me

[bluenose851] 11/8/2006 09:17

anyone know where rog is???

[frank spencer] 09/8/2006 15:00

Try speaking to the poster known as rog.

He lives in Spain, but can't trade anymore.

[bluenose851] 09/8/2006 14:59

no one trades from spain...cant beleive that

[bluenose851] 09/8/2006 14:03

Im sitting here in beautiful Moraira on the Costa Blanca.

Are there any other traders out here in Spain??

[briarberry] 13/7/2006 12:51

Bank of Japan to Start Pivotal Meeting Amid Expectations for First Interest Rate Hike in 6 Years

TOKYO (AP) -- Japan's central bank was to start a pivotal two-day policy meeting Thursday amid widespread expectations it will raise interest rates for the first time in six years.

A decision is expected Friday, when the Bank of Japan's policy board members vote. Raising rates, from virtually zero percent, would be the clearest sign yet that the world's second-biggest economy has emerged from a decade of doldrums. But it also raises concerns that higher borrowing costs might undercut the country's tenuous economic comeback.

Analysts and investors generally expect the BOJ to raise a benchmark rate to a scant 0.25 percent. The overnight discount rate now stands at 0.069 percent -- effectively zero.

The prospect of higher rates has sparked concern among ruling party officials because they want the BOJ to avoid the mistake it made in August 2000, when it lifted borrowing rates prematurely -- and choked a recovery.

But the economy is much stronger than six years ago, with corporate profits surging, salaries rising, unemployment falling to eight-year lows and the trend of spiraling price declines, known as deflation, largely defeated. Japan's economy has turned in five straight quarters of growth, and forecasts call for up to 3 percent growth this year.

Raising rates would bring the BOJ in line with central banks in the U.S. and Europe, which are also tightening credit. In June, the European Central Bank raised its key interest rate to 2.75 percent, while the Federal Reserve has lifted the fed funds rate 17 times straight to 5.25 percent.

Japanese government officials have given conflicting signals in the meantime.

Top government spokesman Shinzo Abe, who has repeatedly urged the central bank to hold off until it is clear Japan has pulled out of deflation, has said earlier this week zero interest rates are "desirable" for some time.

However, a senior ruling party official said the government should trust the central bank with the timing of a rate hike.

"We should trust the Bank of Japan and leave the decision up to them," Tsutomu Takebe, secretary-general of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, was quoted as saying by Kyodo News agency.

Shadowing the rate decision is a brewing scandal over private investments made by the BOJ's embattled governor, Toshihiko Fukui. Calls for his resignation have surged since he acknowledged he had invested in a fund run by Yoshiaki Murakami, a well-known shareholder activist who was arrested on charges of insider trading last month.

The investment wasn't illegal, but it has prompted questions about conflict of interest -- and public outrage that Fukui's investment had more than doubled to 22 million yen (US$190,000; euro150,000), while most Japanese were earning virtually no interest on their savings because of the Bank of Japan's zero interest rate policy.

Fukui has repeatedly apologized while denying any wrongdoing. He also has donated the entire investment to charity.

But polls show that as many as three in four Japanese still think Fukui should step down.

[briarberry] 26/5/2006 09:27

Ike Iossif talks about the 4 year cycle versus the QQQQ/SP500

traders more bearish (looking at Rydex) than before prior 4yr cycle declines

[briarberry] 25/5/2006 14:14

SPX

PC ratio gone mental, i hope we retrace back up to 1300 (go short again), although could see one more test of the lows first ???

that's what i'm thinking now

1290's maybees fingersX

[briarberry] 25/5/2006 13:56

US New Home Sales - possible big negative for the economy, if that's the top ? (chart below)


The new housing data appear to confirm what many economists have already said: as real estate speculators bow out of a peaking market and mortgage rates rise, the torrid pace of home sales is cooling. Compared with last April, sales of new homes fell 5.7 percent.

"It does look like things seem to be steadying," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist with RBS Greenwich Capital. "Now, we're more or less just back to the fundamental demand that was there all along of people who actually want to buy and live in a home - the family with two kids and a dog."

Inventories are also rising, yet another sign of weakness in the latest housing data. At the end of April, the number of homes for sale reached a record 565,000.

The median sale price of new homes nationwide rose to $238,500 in April, up from $232,000 in March, but little changed from a year earlier.

[briarberry] 22/5/2006 11:09

This morning in Asia, the Tokyo and Hong Kong markets dropped by around 2%, while the Indian stock exchange was forced to close for an hour after losing more than 10% of its value, though it later regained some ground.


Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE)

[briarberry] 30/4/2006 16:36

SPX - still waiting, wondering if the market will follow the BKX up

still could be too many bears for a big dip, a few sentiment charts


if it wasn't for the oils and tech taking a wobble i'd look for a long (short term)

TA... negative divergences (edit: longer term TA -ve divergences) suggest shorting a big move up

bonds are oversold


Microsoft... i was wondering about the big dip in MSFT, it might just be that their customers are likely to wait for Vista before they buy, now due 2007



Last month, Microsoft said it was delaying until early 2007 the release of Windows Vista for consumers, missing out on the important upcoming holiday selling season. The company will ship its version for corporate users in November as planned.