Empiric Student Property Share Discussion Threads

[briarberry] 06/10/2005 16:59

UK August industrial production much weaker than expected at -0.9% mom and -1.9% yoy following July's -0.4% mom and -1.6% yoy and against forecasts for +0.2% mom and -0.7% yoy.

[briarberry] 06/10/2005 15:51

US gasoline is still only around GBp 42 pence per litre

[briarberry] 05/10/2005 15:34

not looking so good for the UK either :(

[briarberry] 05/10/2005 10:44

US Bankruptcy filings soar ahead of new law
13,000 Americans a day seeking seeking protection from creditors

Two weeks before a new, more restrictive national bankruptcy law goes into effect, financially strapped Americans are rushing to file for protection from their creditors, with filings climbing to an unprecedented average of 13,000 a day last week.



Week after week records are toppled. Last week's 68,287 new filings surpassed the record set the week before by 24 percent

[briarberry] 04/10/2005 19:46

this is worth a read...

summary...

Investment Outlook - Bill Gross | October 2005

The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System have just released Discussion Paper #841 entitled "House prices and Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Study," a project covering 18 major country housing markets since 1970.

I think it's pretty clear that real housing prices have peaked on average four to six quarters after the central bank first raises interest rates and following what appears to be 200 basis points of short-term rate hikes. The tightening then continues another two quarters thereafter for what looks like a total cyclical increase of 300 basis points or so. With the caveat that many countries in this study have housing markets with greater sensitivity to short rates than our own, I find it illuminating that our own Fed has raised policy rates for nearly five quarters now to the tune of 275 basis points, dead on the average point where real housing prices have peaked over the past 35 years.

Additional studies have shown that the current level of short rates is beginning to eliminate many first time buyers from the market since they have increasingly used adjustable-rate mortgages to squeeze through the door. Affordability indices, primarily a function of mortgage rates, are hitting 15-year lows, and banks' willingness to lend - a function to some extent of regulatory pressure - is going down as well. Because upwards of 20% of new home purchases now are either for second homes or for condo flipping to a hoped for "bag holder," speculators cannot be sleeping easily these nights.

Greenspan states that homeowners borrowed $600 billion last year against the growing equity in their homes made possible by the annual gains in housing prices of near double-digits in recent years. That $600 billion amounts to nearly 7% of disposable personal income. While Greenspan again does not take the risky step of suggesting how much of that flows through to spending, private economists and good old common sense suggest at least 50% and maybe more. People don't borrow money to deposit it in the bank. They borrow money to spend. If so, and using a conservative 50% figure, the chart points out that home equitization has added ½ to 1% annually to the U.S. GDP growth rate in recent years. Should home prices stop going up at recent rates, equity extraction will become more difficult.

In either case, however, our Fed with its new Chairman will likely be in the enviable position of lowering rates come mid-year 2006

[briarberry] 03/10/2005 18:54

US house prices are starting to go down...






usually a good selection of news and comments...

[briarberry] 29/9/2005 18:50

US demand for gasoline has been dented by the higher prices but production has a larger dent, and gasoline is still cheap by our standands...



Over the last four weeks, gasoline demand has averaged more than 8.8 million barrels per day (bpd), or 2.8 percent below the same period last year.

Gasoline prices vaulted to well over $3 (1.63 pounds) a gallon in many parts of the United States after the hurricane shut down most of the region's oil production and refineries. Gasoline had sold for about $2.60 a gallon before the hurricane hit.

i make that 43 pence per litre



from post 299

Unfortunately not every part of the USA is graced with an efficient mass transit system such as NYC - many Americans have no alternative other than driving to work. According to the 2000 US census, 87.9% of Americans commute by car, van or truck. In fact, a Wall Street Journal poll of 4,000 people conducted on August 15 reported that 31% of respondents said they have already cut driving activities, 21% said they would cut driving when gas reaches $3-$4 a gallon while another 18% said that they wouldn't cut driving until gasoline prices hit $4-$5 a gallon.


Sport utility vehicles and light trucks average 16 miles per gallon. Americans buy more SUVs than cars.

[briarberry] 29/9/2005 18:46

Oil - Gulf of Mexico, facts and figures from Tuesday...

[briarberry] 28/9/2005 21:17

Oil and gas producer ConocoPhillips Inc. on Wednesday said damages from Hurricane Rita may keep its Lake Charles refinery in Louisiana closed until mid-October.

To brace for the storm last week, ConocoPhillips shut its 229,000 barrel-per-day Sweeny refinery in Old Ocean, Texas, as well as its 239,000 barrel-per-day Lake Charles refinery in Westlake, La. The Sweeny plant weathered the hurricane without damage and operations should return to normal this week, the company said.

[briarberry] 28/9/2005 19:26

US Credit-card delinquencies hit record

Pain at the pump is a major factor, according to the American Bankers Association.

The ABA found that the 4.81 percent of credit-card accounts had payments that were past due by 30 days or more between April and June. That's up from 4.76 percent in the first quarter, which was the previous record. The ABA started tracking delinquencies in 1973.

[briarberry] 28/9/2005 19:15

Damaged, lost rigs used for exploration may delay discovery of new global oil supplies, paper says. - September 28, 2005: 8:08 AM EDT


Rigs were in short supply even before the hurricanes, the newspaper reports. They cost $90 million to $550 million, and a rig ordered today to replace a damaged or destroyed rig won't be available before 2008, according to the report.

[briarberry] 27/9/2005 19:56

an author on Finacial Sense put this simple idea in my head...


energy = the capcity to do work

working = earning money

therefore, energy = money

thus without an expansion in energy there can be no expansion in the economy

[briarberry] 27/9/2005 19:36

Prudent Bear...

There is no slack in household budgets. Our public has a negative savings rate, a taste for luxury goods, mounting liabilities, stagnant earnings and rising global labor market competition. Personal spending rises- for years based more on debt growth than income growth. We have bought more than we could afford for so long that a work out would rattle the globe and plunge the domestic economy into a prolonged recession of historic proportion. According to data provided by the Board of Governors of The Federal Reserve System, total households assets rose 103% 1994-2004. Across the same years household liabilities rose 134%.

The doubling of credit card minimum payments on balances has begun. This doubling, from 2% to 4%, will fall hard on the average balance- now around $10,000. Next month the new bankruptcy bill takes effect. This will make it harder and more expensive to enter Chapter 7, and will push many toward a newly restrictive Chapter 13 filing. Higher burdens of hardship proof, counseling classes, means testing and lesser protections will soon apply. The consumer engine of our economy will be running on a lean mixture without all its cylinders. To these stressors are added home heating costs - likely to be at least 160% of the 2004 bill, and painfully expensive gasoline, easily 156% of last year's price.

[briarberry] 27/9/2005 18:55

US refineries...

Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Oil refineries near the Louisiana- Texas border may be shut for a month because of damage from Hurricane Rita, heightening the threat of fuel shortages in an industry that has yet to recover from Hurricane Katrina.

Motiva Enterprises LLC said its refinery in Port Arthur, Texas, about 100 miles east of Houston, had flooding and wind damage. Valero Energy Corp. said its plant there had extensive damage to its electricity supply and two toppled cooling towers. Citgo Petroleum Corp. said its plant in Lake Charles, Louisiana, was without power. Valero had the only estimate among the seven area refiners of when it may open -- two to four weeks.

The Port Arthur and Lake Charles areas ``got hammered, and that's where the real damage is,'' said Chuck Dunlap, president of Pasadena Refining System Inc. in Pasadena, Texas. ``The damage done there, you're talking weeks to get back up, or longer.''

The country was already missing about 5 percent of its refining capacity before Rita. Three plants on the Mississippi River near New Orleans and a fourth on the coast in Pascagoula, Mississippi, were damaged and flooded by Katrina, which struck Aug. 29.

Only Chevron Corp.'s Pascagoula refinery set a timetable for recovery, predicting it will be at full output by mid-November.

Before Katrina, U.S. refineries were working at about 97 percent of capacity. They were running almost flat out and were barely keeping pace with rising U.S. demand, which was being spurred by economic growth.

[briarberry] 27/9/2005 14:24

fellow gamblers/traders - i think we should all be aware of stuff like this :(


StretchArmstrong - 27 Sep'05 - 10:35 - 394 of 429

Can't believe it, IG just deactivated my online dealing. I called them and they said it's because I am beating them! I'm allowed other markets but no oil products.

[briarberry] 26/9/2005 21:21

Monday, September 26, 2005 - Diamond Offshore Drilling, reported that the drilling rigs Ocean Saratoga and Ocean Star broke free from their moorings as Hurricane Rita passed west of both semisubmersibles. Both of the units and their well operations were secured and personnel were evacuated well in advance of the storm.

Monday, September 26, 2005 - GlobalSantaFe reported that two of its jackup rigs, the GSF Adriatic VII and GSF High Island III, could not be found on their drilling locations during a search by fixed-wing aircraft Sunday.

Monday, September 26, 2005 - Rowan Companies reports that, in the aftermath of Hurricane Rita, its jackup rigs Rowan Odessa and Rowan Halifax were not at their pre-storm locations. In addition, the hull of the jackup Rowan Louisiana apparently detached from its legs and is aground offshore Louisiana.




Typhoon tension leg platform (located in 2,000 feet of water in the Green Canyon area approximately 165 miles south-southwest of New Orleans) was severed from its mooring and suffered severe damage during the storm. The facility has been located and is being secured.

Chevron operates the platform, which began production in 2001 and produces 40,000 barrels of oil and 60 million cubic feet of natural gas per day.

[briarberry] 26/9/2005 21:17

Greenie can print $s but he cannot print oil...


The Fed added $10 billion in overnight repos against no expirations for a massive $10 billion net add, as it responds to the dislocations caused by Hurricane Rita. This may only be the beginning of a series of adds. Huge Treasury paydowns could also put a bid under the market later this week

[briarberry] 26/9/2005 18:23

UK economy, Panorama (old news for us traders but it's on tele now)

In the north-east, one recent estimate puts the public sector of the economy at close to 60%. That's roughly what it was in Hungary before the Berlin Wall came down.





The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) said Britons could face "stealth taxes" equivalent to three pence on income tax.

Mr Brown had forecast that UK growth would be 3-3.5%, but analysts believe that figure could now be 2.5% or less.

IMF experts believe that the UK's gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 1.9% in 2005.

[briarberry] 26/9/2005 18:11

Mike in FL said...

speaking of existing home sales, yes they were up and at 7.29 million units, just shy of June's record pace. But look more closely at the numbers and you'll see the "tight supply" story being completely debunked month-in and month out. The inventory for sale figure just hit 2.86 million in August -- the highest in history. Even if you strip out condos and just look at the historical single-family homes for sale reading, you get the highest since at least 1989 and possibly longer (I don't have data before that point). In other words, investors are flooding the market with product because they know the market is turning. Watch what happens to prices in the coming months as the "get rich quick" psychology turns into "hmm, maybe I missed the top and this isn't such a good idea."