Empiric Student Property Share Discussion Threads

[briarberry] 21/11/2005 12:45

methane hydrates next? there's lot's of it, if they can get it into the pipe without releasing it into the air ?




Hydrates store immense amounts of methane, with major implications for energy resources and climate, but the natural controls on hydrates and their impacts on the environment are very poorly understood.

Gas hydrates occur abundantly in nature, both in Arctic regions and in marine sediments. Gas hydrate is a crystalline solid consisting of gas molecules, usually methane, each surrounded by a cage of water molecules. It looks very much like water ice. Methane hydrate is stable in ocean floor sediments at water depths greater than 300 meters, and where it occurs, it is known to cement loose sediments in a surface layer several hundred meters thick.

Methane, a "greenhouse" gas, is 10 times more effective than carbon dioxide in causing climate warming.




burning ice :)

[briarberry] 19/11/2005 21:52

chilly all week

[briarberry] 18/11/2005 21:53

UK natural gas, and the forecast is for more frost...


Prices of wholesale gas have almost doubled during the past week, prompting fears about winter supplies to the UK.

Prices hit an eight month high of 80p a therm, sharply higher than last week's price of 43p, before dipping slightly.






Operators have begun to draw gas from the country's largest store – a highly unusual event so early in the year. The Rough offshore storage facility is normally filled at this time for use in January and February, traditionally the coldest months.

Shipments of liquefied natural gas bound for Britain have also been diverted to the US and Spain over the past six weeks, where they have been fetching a higher price. A new import terminal at the Isle of Grain in Kent is thought to have been idle since early October.

Finally, a reversible gas pipeline between Bacton and Zeebrugge has been operating at less than half its capacity, despite soaring UK prices. Compressor problems in Germany are thought to have been partly responsible for the lack of gas flowing from the Continent. But many UK buyers also suspect that continental European operators are holding back gas supplies.

If the UK suffers an unusually cold winter, the operator of the gas pipeline network has said that some heavy industrial users and power plants may have to be cut off. The Met Office has said there is a 65 per cent chance of a colder-than-average winter, something not experienced in a decade.

[briarberry] 17/11/2005 21:25

Nasdaq did well but the SOX didn't make it and the vxn took a dump, NDX:VXN ratio back at it's highs

could still go higher, and be more overbought but tempted to start shorting ?

[briarberry] 17/11/2005 18:59

A report from the California Building Industry Association shows new home sales in Northern California fell 40 percent during the past three months, compared to the same period last year. It's the sharpest such drop in the last 15 years.

[briarberry] 16/11/2005 20:52

Prudent Bear

Late-cycle booms are inherently exulting, precarious affairs. Resiliency prevails throughout. Seductively, the boom-time economy comes to be viewed as irrepressible, while abundant marketplace liquidity waxes only more intoxicating. Increasingly specious analysis evolves to justify the Credit-induced prosperity that a receptive audience is thirsty to indulge. And, over time, issues that were of real concern no longer seem to matter much in the marketplace or elsewhere. After all, how many years can we expect the ballooning U.S. Current Account Deficit to be a cause of serious concern? Policymakers similarly change their tune. The foreboders are discredited and silenced, creating a void the opportunistic Pollyannas cordially utilize. In the end, investors, speculators and policymakers (not to mention bankers, the business community and consumers) unite to extrapolate the unsustainable.


Crosscurrents

Volatility has fallen again for most of our studies, and again is near decade old lows. Low volatility can feed a bull market, just like the old adage, "never sell a dull market short." However, this is also the kind of circumstance that leads to a blind side attack against the bulls, just like another old adage, "the calm before the storm." Given that the fundamental background is perilously weak (read higher interest rates, higher inflation, an unpopular President, energy prices, waning consumer confidence, etc.), it is quite astonishing that price movement remains so tame. Best bet: keep looking over your shoulder!

[briarberry] 13/11/2005 21:55

what's going to keep them spending next year when everyone who wants a car has bought one and everyone who can afford a house has moved in ? wages are still being held down by global competition and savings are still declining, will borrowing ever reach a ceiling ?

[briarberry] 13/11/2005 21:45

Almanac Investor Alert: Weekly Update - 11/10/2005

The trade deficit released this morning was nothing short of jaw dropping, logging an all time high of $66.1 BILLION last month! China alone accounts for about a third of this gap. We imported over $171 BILLION dollars worth of goods last month. To put this number into perspective, every man, woman and child in this country (nearly 300 million) imported about $570 worth of goods from abroad; $2,280 for a family of four. Even if you believe that our economy is growing at 3.8% (wink, wink), this pace of imports and trade deficits is not sustainable. The US economy in our opinion is standing on shaky ground to say the least.

The trade deficit joins housing, energy and inflation as primary reasons why we are skeptical about the health of the stock market. We are still advocating only selective buying. The week before Thanksgiving, the S&P has been up 11 of the 13. The Dow however has not performed well on the Monday before and the Friday of options expiration.

[briarberry] 13/11/2005 21:38

Ike Iossif Interview with Carl Swenlin - 11/11/2005

lots of nice charts too :)

[briarberry] 13/11/2005 21:16

seasonality


Options Expiry - November 18th

Thanksgiving - November 24th

Yale Hirsch, of the 'Stock Trader's Alamanac' says be invested the day before
and after Thanksgiving. These two days have been consistent gainers for
stocks without a loss since the end of WWII.

Thanksgiving is celebrated on the 4th Thursday of November.


BEING STREET SMART - Sy Harding

Positive seasonality; the flow of extra money that automatically flows into the market beginning in November (from mutual fund distributions, Christmas and year-end bonuses, employer contributions to employee profit-sharing and pension plans, year-end fees collected by hedge-fund managers, money-management firms, income-tax refunds, etc.) almost always overcomes any concerns that investors may have at the time anyway. Thus does the market seem to be able to 'climb a wall of worry' in its favorable season.

And next year is the 2nd year of the Four-Year Presidential Cycle, which has the record of experiencing most of the bear markets of the last 75 years.

[briarberry] 13/11/2005 20:30

CEO confidence & employment... bearish signs for 2006 if they persist...








October Employment Report Strikes A Note of Caution

[briarberry] 13/11/2005 19:42

sentiment update interview

Mark Young, expects a pullback, but he believes the "top" is weeks away

(file 3mb)



Investors' Sentiment: Ike Iossif, President, CIO, of Aegean Capital Group, Inc., and Mark Young, President of Equity Guardian Group, LLC., discuss the changes in investors' sentiment after the most recent rally. A presentation of www.marketviews.tv

[briarberry] 12/11/2005 22:21

Oil...



bhg - 12 Nov'05 - 20:11 - 24752 of 24753


Kuwait's biggest field starts to run out of oil

It was an incredible revelation last week that the second largest oil field in the world is exhausted and past its peak output. Yet that is what the Kuwait Oil Company revealed about its Burgan field.-






The peak output of the Burgan oil field will now be around 1.7 million barrels per day, and not the two million barrels per day forecast for the rest of the field's 30 to 40 years of life, Chairman Farouk Al Zanki told Bloomberg.

He said that engineers had tried to maintain 1.9 million barrels per day but that 1.7 million is the optimum rate. Kuwait will now spend some $3 million a year for the next year to boost output and exports from other fields.

However, it is surely a landmark moment when the world's second largest oil field begins to run dry. For Burgan has been pumping oil for almost 60 years and accounts for more than half of Kuwait's proven oil reserves. This is also not what forecasters are currently assuming.

Forecasts wrong

Last week the International Energy Agency's report said output from the Greater Burgan area will be 1.64 million barrels a day in 2020 and 1.53 million barrels per day in 2030. Is this now a realistic scenario?

[briarberry] 06/11/2005 21:33

just wondering if the NDX or Qs are going to manage to break-out this time (or even just a fake-out)

left a nice gap below on Thursday

the Q's have had trouble staying above $40 this year (closed at 40.08, 40.11 in afterhours)

just going to wait and see what happens, because you never know, if $40 holds as support, we could see another leg up

also, interesting to see if BKX can make it above 100 again (from an SPX earnings point of view)

[briarberry] 04/11/2005 14:25

US mortgage mountain, there are a lot of borrowers still on low starter rates, they're going to be paying more over the next couple of years




new higher rates




wages not keeping up

[briarberry] 23/10/2005 23:06

if the FTSE100 doesn't bounce here it's the end of the uptrend, plus EMA(8) is worth a look (as it seems to support the uptrend and act as resistance on the 2000 to 2003 downslope)...

nice chart from eminimee...

[briarberry] 21/10/2005 21:31

PPT: The visible hand of Uncle Sam

John Embry and Andrew Hepburn provide a valuable entry into the world of finance. The two analysts illuminate the shadowy trail of the "Plunge Protection Team" in its apparent mission to rig the American stock markets.



full report, in pdf format...

[briarberry] 20/10/2005 21:31

US earnings seem to be coming in ok so far...


October 19, 2005

Companies have started to report third quarter earnings. With the economy facing various crosscurrents, earnings will be able to shed light on the strength of different sectors. It will also be important to see which companies are able to pass along higher costs. So far there have been 130 S&P 500 companies that have reported third quarter earnings. Overall, earnings have been better than expected with 67.7% exceeding estimates and 18.5% missing analysts' forecasts. However, aggregate earnings are lower than forecasts. A large portion of this shortfall, if not the entire difference, is likely due to the larger than expected loss from General Motors

[briarberry] 15/10/2005 17:55

FTSE250 December, closed all shorts in profit, it's done a big ABC down now, so thought i'd take the money


FTSE250 March, net short, above 7,800 :)

[briarberry] 15/10/2005 17:51

FTSE100 shorts, December (end of year) contracts, in net profit now, lowered stops. not going to make much on them, too many low ones, didn't add enough near the top

starting to smell a possible recession now but it's still not hitting profits (FTSE100) too much



FTSE100 dividend yield of 3.5 per cent