Emmerson Share Discussion Threads

[cyberbub] 15/7/2020 12:59

Yes it's true that there isn't any concrete news due for a while. It's also the summer and the City boys are finally able to go on their holidays, so share prices will be weak until September as usual. Nevertheless I think as more people start to realise what EML have, they will see that a £35M cap is ridiculous even at this stage. Personally I struggle to see why we're under 10p. Hopefully we will get there in the coming weeks when we're past the summer lull.Patience all. There is certainly still risk here, but unless the management make a total a*se of the next 6 months (seems unlikely given their calibre), the commodity price collapses to unprecedented levels, or there is some black swan event, then eventually 5p will be long gone!Nice to see you on board Rhuvaal!

[micky67] 15/7/2020 12:59

Lew, yip agreed. He intimated he was looking to get the full whack. Also looking at reducing the capex and GC now dealing with ESIA finalisation to secure the licence and finalising the construction and tender details for the build tendering contracts. Pretty sure finance has more or less been rubber stamped otherwise they wouldn’t have taken GC on board for the construction so looks like full steam ahead.

[lew82] 15/7/2020 12:48

Hi Micky that is true, but that is the fall back position. The preferred EML & optimum solution for the project is to raise the full £350/400m I think it was for the full project. I would expect EML to take that £200m on debt factoring then look for a strategic partner i.e. OCP to raise the other half via a preferential supply agreement. Job done, Hayden just give me a call I'll sort it lol.

[micky67] 15/7/2020 12:40

Lew, an indication of finance of $230M was already offered last year (June 10th) based on the lower scoping study figures. The new DFS will confirm “at least” $1.8 Billion NPV. The first DFS for the initial mine showed an NPV of $1.4 Billion.

Hayden’s comment re financing last year as follows:-

We have already had early engagement with several potential debt financing parties, one of whom provided Emmerson with an indicative debt financing proposal. This showed that it would be willing to finance around US$230 million, or roughly 60% of our construction cost based on the current capital cost estimates. Importantly, this early indication was made using very conservative underlying assumptions in the financial model, and the Company is confident that it will be able to negotiate better terms in several areas, which would increase this quantum and thus reduce the remaining amount to be financed.

This leaves the equity portion to finance. The Company is engaged with numerous potential sources of capital and will continue to progress these options in parallel. These include both financial and strategic investors. On the strategic side, there are several fertiliser industry participants for whom a secure source of potash would be highly valuable and, given Khemisset's low capital cost, Emmerson presents a much lower risk entry for these groups. This presents several opportunities to attract equity finance to construct the mine.

Hayden will now have a strong negotiating position regards securing more direct funding and possibly a wee equity issue (if indeed any extra is required) which would be at a 17-20p share price

The new DFS is being worked on and the ESIA is due to be submitted to the Moroccan government CNEIE before the end of this quarter. As previously intimated the licence seems to be a formality.

[sportbilly1976] 15/7/2020 11:47

rhuvaal,

no rush indeed on the news front - ESIA due over the next 6 weeks or so and then mining permits and financing by year-end from the Co's timeframe

price wise with some good coverage and interest it could and should get going towards the broker valuations for the current stage of the project of c.20p

welcome aboard

[rhuvaal2] 15/7/2020 11:34

sportbilly & cyberhub = made a start here today from EUA, thank you both: no rush

[lew82] 15/7/2020 11:31

The only way there will be any news on finance is if it is announced contingent on mining permission being granted, which can only happen once the environmental study has been submitted.

Would you throw down a minimum of £200m without the mining permit, course you wouldn't!

That said the current share price is undervalued based on progress to date, we should be higher, real demand for the stock is low currently, its just a waiting game.

[grannyboy] 15/7/2020 11:11

There will not be any news of significance for a while, and to claim that the share price is overdue a rise is just impatient speculation.

[cyberbub] 15/7/2020 11:06

True MF, it could be a 5M+ day if it continues at the same rate.... Looks like my top-up yesterday might have been well timed...?

[bmwman3] 15/7/2020 11:05

I've joined the party this morning! Good luck to us all! News soon I hope!

[sportbilly1976] 15/7/2020 11:00

max 150k at 5p currently

[mad foetus] 15/7/2020 10:35

Today could turn into a high volume day

[cyberbub] 15/7/2020 10:09

Need to see some higher volume IMO

[micky67] 15/7/2020 09:08

Word will start to be getting out around about this now so we should see it moving quickly on expected good news. The low ball sellers should be cleared so a nice move up well overdue as this is a steal just now. So much so I got paid today and I’m seriously thinking about a small amount more. Holiday or EML - what a quandary.

[sportbilly1976] 15/7/2020 08:51

need to flush the flippers though...

4.7p not worth selling at yesterday but in a rush to take 4.9p? Really???

[mad foetus] 15/7/2020 08:44

Next leg up starting? If so should be 7.5p pretty quickly

[parob] 15/7/2020 08:42

This is looking much better.

[sportbilly1976] 14/7/2020 16:37

hopefully another blue day tomorrow given the shocker of a UT trade there at 4.7p

[1airbag] 14/7/2020 16:04

they want me to pay 4.87p for another 100k.

[1airbag] 14/7/2020 16:01

took 100k instead of the original 200k

[cyberbub] 14/7/2020 15:58

I think there maybe a decent sized sell published after close...

[sportbilly1976] 14/7/2020 15:51

airbag,

IG will get me a buy quote on that for just over 2.8p...suggesting they would execute but at a premium - 4.827p

[korvet] 14/7/2020 15:42

It's a true skill, I pride myself on my ability to buy into a share and watch it drop. Today is a perfect example. Sold the share price 500, it's up. Bought BRWM, it's down. Tell yus , at this rate we'll soon be in the cardboard box outside the shopping centre, which will have shut down.

[1airbag] 14/7/2020 15:41

just tried to buy another 200k and Harg Lans won't fill order.
will let me buy 100k at 4.77p.

[donald pond] 14/7/2020 15:30

I really am surprised anyone would sell out now. You had a chance on the spike up to 6.5, then on the slow drift back. Why would you sell just as it appears to be picking up again. But it happens time and again across all shares, people always seem committed to buying at the top and selling at the bottom.