Education Development Share Discussion Threads

[bookworm1] 01/4/2010 11:50

Nice 'steady as she goes' announcement from nigel and encouraging news from international (which IMO could be the long term jewel in their crown).

Brokers forecasts (which look a bit damp to me) of PTP £9.9m divided by the reduced number of shares 56.76m gives an eps of 17.4p on a P/E multiple of 12 would give £2.00 by the year end.

Timing of the interms have also been scheduled post election to reassure shareholders that things are still OK.

[strollingmolby] 01/4/2010 10:51

Would be interested in thoughts as to 'how far ahead' sales and profits are over the same period last year?

TRADING UPDATE

Education Development International plc ('EDI' or 'the Company'), the leading
provider of educational qualifications and assessment services, provides the
following update on trading for the six month period to 31 March 2010.

The positive trend reported at the Company's AGM has been maintained over the
past three months and, in line with the Board's expectations, sales and profitability are ahead of the same period last year.

Underlying growth in sales into the UK vocational qualifications market is
encouraging, especially when account is taken of the particularly strong
performance achieved in the same period last year. Government funding of
Apprenticeship and adult training programmes has been tightly managed over the
past six months but we expect to see an increase in the level of activity from 1 April when new funding contracts come into effect.

The international business has performed well, after taking account of the positive impact of movements in currency exchange rates, and this reflects the positive benefits of the additional resources put into this area of our business over the past 12 months.

Development work in connection with our investment programme is in line with the plans and good progress has been made on the integration of Peter Honey Publications Ltd, acquired on 1 February 2010.

Results for the six month period to 31 March 2010 will be published on 25 May.

[mpjsb1] 31/3/2010 13:21

Yes, MLO trading statement has probably helped to focus some attention on the sector as well.

[bookworm1] 29/3/2010 19:36

Interesting to note that the company has been buying shares over the last month around 130p. Probably makes good use of some of their surplus cash especially as we are just comming up to the end of the first half when results will be announced soon. Better than putting it in a bank account especially if the company has some large institutions willing to buy large chunks off them and is willing to wait.

[bookworm1] 26/3/2010 16:47

not according to this guy..

Jim Slater article in investors chronicle:

"It is hard to find many shares that measure up to my demanding criteria but it is well worth the hunt, because when you find a really good one it can perform magnificently. Last year Education Development (EDI) ticked all my boxes. The shares at the beginning of the year were 37p and are now 131p. Even after this very substantial rise, they are still relatively cheap, and on a very attractive multiple in relation to the growth rate with plenty of spare cash and very strong cash flow."

... plus their current investment programme will increase their capability to deliver even more courses.

[melody9999] 02/3/2010 13:09

Started rising at 40p, reached 160p 33% retrace of the gain would be 40p ie 120p. Can see this going lower though.

[melody9999] 12/2/2010 10:01

anyone go to the investor day that can report back?

[bookworm1] 02/2/2010 16:46

Market seems to be in the divergent stage in its learning cycle! Between apprehension and connotation if you apply the Honey-Mumford model.

[gingercat1] 02/2/2010 16:39

Maybe the aquisition it proposed RNS 01/02/10.

[johnthespacer] 02/2/2010 16:31

must be i dont see any reasons for the drop

[porsche boxster] 02/2/2010 16:07

Tree shake?

8p drop on minimal volme.

[stegrego] 25/1/2010 20:37

Thanks bookworm

[interceptor2] 25/1/2010 19:50

Thanks bookworm for the update from the AGM. I believe EDD have a great future and wont be that effected by any cutbacks, and they are still good value at the present price for the future growth on offer.

I'm not sure about where the price is going short term, but will keep a very close eye on developments with a view of buying back in if an opportunity presents itself.

[bookworm1] 25/1/2010 14:35

I managed to meet some of the management team; the Head of Operations (i.e. the guy who is implementing the new systems development), the Head of Marketing and after the AGM the Director of International Qualifications. So I was able to talk to them about their work and get a general feeling about how things were going. The Head of Operations was the same person who had overseen the last expansion in operational capacity so he knew what he had to do. Whilst the Marketing guy had a very clear idea of what he was trying to do.

During the AGM I asked a number of questions to see how the board perceived the current climate. On reflection I believe that they have positioned themselves well and whilst they are fully aware of the pressure that this sector will be under they are working hard to maximise their position.

Nigel made the point that it would be unrealistic to expect the company to continue growing at 30% year on year but I believe that a 30% growth in eps is still possible this year due to the operational gearing effect in the accounts as sales will only have to rise by 20% which I think is achieveable due to the nature of their UK customer base.

The Director of International Qualifications was also very focused on the task in hand and whilst there are many opportunities they seem to be following a very clear and definite strategy that I think will pay dividends long term. My growth expectation for this part of the business is about 15% p.a.

Conclusion: Whatever you think the effect of government cut backs will be on the economy this company is well placed to maintain and develop its existing position. Whilst there might be some short term concerns amongst PI's about this share that might lead them to sell there are some large buyers waiting in the shadows who want a slice of this company and as far as I can see the writing is on the wall with their expansion plans which will enable them to operate at 2 - 3 times the current level of revenue.

It all seems very familar to two years ago...(without the £9m cash in the bank)

[stegrego] 21/1/2010 19:16

Bookworm - pls expand

[dasv] 21/1/2010 18:22

don't like the markets in general right now.

[bookworm1] 21/1/2010 18:07

Hi guys I went to the AGM today and think that you might be being a bit presumptive.

[interceptor2] 21/1/2010 17:05

Apologies for going off topic, but might be worth keeping an eye on AEC Education AEC, a trading statement is due very shortly. They are moving up in anticipation of a positive statement, and I'm hopefull of AEC replicating EDDs recent growth. AEC are based in Singapore and EDD do have a significant share holding.

For investors like me who have sold out of EDD but still want exposure to this sector, it might be worth a look.

[dasv] 21/1/2010 11:39

hi essentialInvestor, interceptor. I followed suit. I am out for now. I am looking to reduce equity exposure after a great run from July onwards in 2009.

My best performers continue to be IDH and CMSH. 115%, 145% gains respectively. Only managed a 26% gain after spread and costs on EDD :(.

I noted Slater's sell and resolved to sell but didn't. The way of the samurai is one of immediacy ;) (from the art of war, and the film ghost dog).

[essentialinvestor] 21/1/2010 10:06

Snap, the Golden period may be coming to an end imv.
Good luck to anyone continuing to hold.

[interceptor2] 21/1/2010 09:03

I think the statement is OK, but not the type to really move the share price much higher. I did sell my holdings first thing this morning, but would look to buy back in at some point.

I have held these since September 2007, so it will feel unusual not to see them in my portfolio.

Good luck.........

[interceptor2] 21/1/2010 08:19

see AGM statement below.

Trading during the first three months of the current financial year has produced sales a little ahead of the level achieved in last year's equivalent period, a challenging comparative given the very strong growth recorded at that time. New customers continue to be signed up and the programme of strategic investments in staff and systems is progressing in line with our plans.

[melody9999] 21/1/2010 07:48

no probs i2 - and by company if you go into the fundamental section then you will see key dates

[interceptor2] 18/1/2010 22:30

Thanks Melody I will add it to favourites.