Education Development Share Discussion Threads

[rcktmn] 20/2/2009 20:06

getting interesting !

[interceptor2] 20/2/2009 18:12

All doom and gloom in markets today, apart from this litle golden nugget. Check out the last 10min buying action with 3 x 1 million transaction, mm's must be getting short of stock by now.

[rcktmn] 20/2/2009 12:48

will it crash thru the 60p+ barrier? it's looking good... was thinking of selling this morning but will now hold on for a while longer!

[barn owl] 20/2/2009 12:36

Keep going you beauty.

[battlebus] 20/2/2009 12:36

Don't spend it all at once and spread it between banks!

[res1606] 20/2/2009 12:29

Good luck to all. Have enjoyed this and your company over the past 4.5 years.

Auf wiedersehen.

[cockneyrebel] 19/2/2009 20:02

RNS from the co after the close - G.Sachs down yo 3% - they had 8% like Octopus and I assumed they were duplicate announcements. If Octopus hasn't sold 5% then there's another big interesting buyer around.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 19/2/2009 19:59

The fall in eps is down to tax.

What matters to me is this:

Pre tax profits growing @ 70%, that shows the true growth. The forecasts for pre-tax profit to grow just about 10% or so this year is nonsense. With the growth in unemployment I expect the current forecasts to get beaten and £6m pbt be achieved at least - that's 10% ahead.

They should also do at least 30% growth next year so £7M looks more like the pbt next year imo - 9.5p eps fully taxed I reckon.

They also have £6m cash. Strip that out and the PE is around 5.5 on that basis and fabulious growth that's rare in this climate.

Johnthespacer - I think the rise is down to the extremly bullish trading statement, the directors buying loads and Octopus buying a big chunk - I saw their fund manager on Bloomberg last week - a very clued up guy imo. The recent buys of millions of shares are boosting it too - doesn't look like that's Octopus or we'd have had an RNS by now imo.

CR

[interceptor2] 18/2/2009 23:23

I have also found the brokers forecast for 2010 a tad hard to understand, even if you used a full tax charge at 28% it still doesn't work out. As you say bookworm they had £4.3m of unused tax credits on 30/09/08 and would still have some to use this year. The last results EDD were taxed at a 15% rate. I think the brokers are being too cautious for 2010, I know brokers are normally cautious and like to upgrade the figures during the year, but in this case they saying that 2010 will see only 5% growth, but when you read the bullish trading update then it is clear that they will outperform.

I find it an odd statement to say that most of the growth has come via acquistion. On the last full year report the BOD state that growth has come from strong organic growth, and this is bourne out when you check the results, Revenue was £21.5m of which £2.2m was from acquisitions.

There are so many reasons for EDD share price to continue to perform well, maybe after a pause for breath. After one of the most bullish trading statements I have yet to see this year, the directors wasted no time and brought heavily on the same day. And we have seen some very heavy buying volumes on 5th Feb and yeasterday. As I said on a earlier thread I had always thought EDD would be a takeover target some point, and with a weak pound now would be a very good time.

[bookworm1] 18/2/2009 21:55

john after trading sideways since Oct 07 I suspect the recent Trading statement has done a lot to calm any concerns and the share price has seems to have resumed its normal upward trend (which IMO is where it should have been a long time ago). However where it will go over the next 12 months is anyones guess. Certainly this is a very well run little company that is starting to get noticed for all the right reasons; appearing to be quite recession proof and being well balanced between both the corporate and educational sectors as well as home and overseas markets.

But whilst an analysis of the fundamentals demonstrates that the company does what it says it will do if you look at the share price over the last 12 months it has not not totally been able to avoid the influence of market forces despite despite holding up very well in comparison.

So whilst I share your enthusiasm for EDD and welcome the recent (spectacular) improvement in price I am wondering what fundamental or technical improvement is likely to drive the share price even higher when it could just as well consolidate at this price level and trade sideways for another 12 months (going up and down) until the next year end results are delivered.

I would like to be proved wrong but how would you feel if you buy into this share and when all the tipster shareholders get bored and impatient find that the price falls between now and the summer only to rise again on positive interim results?

I would welcome a discussion from anyone on this board about any of the fundamental or technical factors that are likely to drive or influence this share price over the next 12 months.

I did run EDD past JTCod for his opinion and whilst he was quite complimentary about the result he made the following observation that "Growth is only being supported by acquisitions" which I would dearly like to counter but to date have been unable to disprove with any numbers or analysis. My gut tells me that he is wrong and that what he sees as growth funded by acquisition in fact masks a fundamental restuctruring of the cost base that has taken place and is now starting to deliver.

[johnthespacer] 18/2/2009 20:27

I wonder how much of the rise in the share price is to do with the fact that EDD has been tipped twice in the last month?

I am waiting for the right time to buy in - was going to this a.m but held off in case of a drop after a rise on the back of the tips if its next movement is up again i will be straight in there but cant justify buying until i see just in case

Spent 3 hours last night researching this one and all is looking sound and positive! Cant wait to be part of it...

[cockneyrebel] 18/2/2009 18:26

No, not seen anything but they did £3.3m pretax last year and are forecast to do £5.65m this year. With growth of 70% this year the forecast for just £6m next year looks a gross underestimate imo. I guess with this year only 5 months under the belt the brokers cannot guide too far ahead of seeing the interims but I am wishing I bought a load more at 48p and can see why this isn't falling back.

Their market is growing at a pace for them with the increasing unemployment and re-training and we haven't seen all these redundancies turn up at the colleges yet, they've only just lost their jobs.


CR

[bookworm1] 18/2/2009 18:00

Has anyone seen any brokers notes about EDI? The last ones I saw were Brewin Dolphin & Redmayne Bentley but those were about a year ago and had price targets of 50p and 56p respectively.

[cockneyrebel] 17/2/2009 17:04

where do you see they are conditional?

Looks like the last 2 1m might be the sells to fill the earlier two 1m buys to me.

375K buy at the close.

CR

[knitcraft] 17/2/2009 15:45

Think the 1m trades are switches, last 2 are conditional and were traded for a turn.

[cockneyrebel] 17/2/2009 15:19

4 x 1m share buys now - that's 7% of the co shares.

CR

[interceptor2] 17/2/2009 14:27

Funny you say that, I have been expecting a bid at some point, and with the strong dollar that is where I expect the bid to come from. And if you remember on 5th Feb almost 9% of shares traded in just one day, and most were buys. Should be some intersting RNS news soon.

[cockneyrebel] 17/2/2009 13:01

anpther 1m gone through - that's getting on fr 5% of the co traded today and at premiums too.

Not in for a bid are they? City & Guilds?

CR

[banksy] 17/2/2009 12:25

looking toppy!!

[barn owl] 17/2/2009 12:10

This looks a less risky bet than LLOY shares!

[rcktmn] 17/2/2009 11:28

Wow! yes....looking good! RNS to follow ?

[cockneyrebel] 17/2/2009 10:57

agree bookworm.

Seen those two trades of 1m @ 58p? paying over the ask!

CR