Ecora Resources Share Discussion Threads

[1knocker] 14/9/2023 22:30

If you believe that the 'number 1 duty of the CEO is to look after the share price', it is probably time you bought a 'nutshell' guide to company law.

In any event, what (legitimate) tools do you imagine the CEO has at his disposal to enhance the share price?

Only the enhancement of the business and, to the extent of the authority given to the board, share repurchases. Unless the shares are substantially oversold, which on your analysis of the company's medium term prospects it appears that you do not think they are, the value of the company net of the repurchase price will fall in proportion to the number shares repurchased, with no increase in the share price and no benefit to the continuing shareholders. yYu had better buy a nutshell on share valuation too.

[pockstones] 14/9/2023 21:55

Feeling more confident after all the QP posts he was all over it last time around these levels and it touched 200p after that

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 14/9/2023 17:29

#Cocopops, looking after the business is the CEO number 1 priority, protecting it from risks, maintaining the dividend with cover and positioning for growth opportunities, not focusing on the daily machinations of the share price, that is the wrong way to make the right decisions..

Our CEO has bought 130,000 shares in recent months as above because he thinks we are undervalued..

A very welcome bounce +2% on the wider markets today after getting mostly nowhere for 2023 so far.. :o)

[cocopah] 14/9/2023 15:51

Pretty uninspiring Investor Meet presentation.

The usual corporate response and no new information. I expect the share price to deteriorate as income deteriorates and it may well be two years before this recovers.

The CEO doesn’t seem to appreciate that looking after the share price should be his number one priority.

[1knocker] 14/9/2023 15:03

That is certainly the way to play ecora. You have to be prepared to trade in and out.

[masurenguy] 14/9/2023 14:44

Having cut my position by 80% early this year, post 162, I've added some back this afternoon as I think that we are close to the bottom. As nickel and copper prices recover Ecora will be well placed to benefit. CEO seems to think so too as he's added circa 130,000 shares over the past few months.

[1knocker] 14/9/2023 14:04

Does anyone here hold Gold Royalty? If so, any insight into what has been going on there and whether there is any prospect of improvement would be welcome. Unfortunately I hold a few, and I think llb (I hope I don't malign him) may have done so too at one time. Gold Royalty really has been a stinker, the worst performer in my entire portfolio, by a distance..

[quepassa] 14/9/2023 10:43

This share is a fools' paradise.

And it is astonishing just how many fools there are.

Share price performance

2019 -220p.
2023 -110p.


Absolutley dire share price performance.

Best avoid.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[pockstones] 14/9/2023 09:55

Que is a brilliant market timer so long as you buy when he says sell

[quepassa] 12/9/2023 06:16

This share is a fools' paradise.

And it is astonishing just how many fools there are.

Share price performance

2019 -220p.
2023 -110p.


Absolutley dire share price performance.

Best avoid.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[muffster] 12/9/2023 06:10

Qp, you're the fool. Wise up

[quepassa] 12/9/2023 05:21

This share is a fools' paradise.

And it is astonishing just how many fools there are.

Share price performance

2019 -220p.
2023 -110p.


Absolutley dire share price performance.

Best avoid.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[farrugia] 06/9/2023 08:23

the world is slowly entering one hell of a recession even if Goldman Sachs say it will probably be avoided. China is also slowing. Where does that leave industrial miners?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 05/9/2023 14:02

#1Knocker, more a slow burner here IMO, I was hoping for a 200 pence spike on our record income year, however macro events have impacted and taken it down, along with weaker commodity prices on top of half the Kestrel revenues, an unsurprising result really..

I view this as a safe, risk diversified 6% yield, and just let it grind along paying our debt and taxes down from income as VB/WM wind up and deliver from 2024/2025 resp..

Interest on debt has been rolled over onto LIBOR +2.75% to 4.50% and hurts the bottom line, debt should peak in H2 as the Kestrel tax liabilities wind off along with the last two S32 payments, INCOA tranche 02 has gone out to 2025 while the get their plant operational which suits our cash flows..

Should any deals come up which are too good to turn down, we will have USD150M liquidity to draw on, but paying down debt should be a priority now IMO..

[1knocker] 05/9/2023 12:40

All pretty uninspiring - like its bloody silly name! Not sure about the current CEO. He keeps pretty quiet, but that is not necessarily a bad thing. Is ecor a sleeper which will surprise us all, or just a mediocre operation? A comparison with (say) Altius minerals over, 1, 3, 5,10 years - any period you chose really - suggests the latter. Altius pays a much smaller dividend of course, but all the same, my Altuus holding cought in December 2019 is up 80%. Ecor, a very different story.

At present my preferred buy is TRR on dips - I bought more at 38 and a bit a few days ago. I am leery of buying more Altius at the present exchange rate, but if the $ should hit the buffers It would be on my watch list. If ecor falls below 100 I may at least be tempted, but would probably want to see 95 in order to succumb to temptation.

To make money on Ecor you have to espouse its volatility, and be ready to sell any spike. My selling average is above my buying average, but alas not sufficiently so to paint it blue in my portfolio capital account (education does not come cheap; my first purchase at 183 many years ago did me no favours. I bought at a sell price, but at least I have not made the same mistake again with ecor).

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 05/9/2023 10:50

#Stemis - net debt as at 30 June 2023 of USD43.3M /cash +USD6M
05.09.2023 net debt of USD73.0M

Vizcachitas project from Los Andes Copper Limited USD20M paid out
2 further instalments of deferred consideration in relation to the S32 WM royalty paid.
The Groups net debt is expected to increase further while remaining below USD100.0M during H2 2023..

12.07.2022 - our S32 deal included a cash consideration of USD55M paid in 6 instalments over the next 18 months (6*9M), so we will have paid out 4 of them now..?

[quepassa] 05/9/2023 10:26

Yes.

but...

"In the short-term Kestrel revenue will become more volatile on a quarterly basis as operations move in and out of the Group's private royalty area. Production will remain outside of the private royalty area for the majority of H2 2023 with volumes that had been anticipated in Q4 2023 expected to be deferred into H1 2024."


read last sentence carefully.


all imo. dyor.
qp

[stemis] 05/9/2023 09:47

Dividend cost $11m in H1, compared to ebitda of $37m

[quepassa] 05/9/2023 09:37

Poor results.

outlook mixed at best.

all metrics under downwards pressure.

ouch.

is the current dividend sustainable when they just reported at $10m half-year loss and with fluctuating future income from wind-down Kestrel?

not propitious results.

all imo. dyor.
qp

[stemis] 05/9/2023 09:21

Quite a lot of bad news already in the share price. 106p = mkt cap of $342m, plus debt of $43m gives EV of $385m, which is 5.2 x annualised H1 ebitda of $37m. The problem is that the market looks at the diminishing contribution of Kestrel, but not really the future royalties from South 32 and Voisey deals (which should more than replace Kestrel). In the meantime the share has a dividend yield of 6.4%

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 05/9/2023 09:15

As expected, strong income and an accounting offset loss based on the revaluation of Kestrel, some good updates there on Incoa, WM, VB, S32 payments, Narrabri income, 4 mile resolution and back dated income..

Another 2.125 cents dividend in the bag and we just need to sit tight until next year and things pick up at VB/Kestrel, if the share price goes much lower we will probably see another BB at the same level as 2020..

A poor day on the wider markets so not surprised to see us marked down 4 pence.., commodities have come off highs last year and H2 will be light, but still a reasonable c60M FY income all in..

[cocopah] 05/9/2023 08:48

Short-term forward guidance even worse … expect sub £1.00 incoming.