Duke Capital Share Discussion Threads

[sapporo59] 02/9/2022 08:55

still don't understand why with a great business model and the super dividend on the horizon the share is sliding down?

any idea?

Is there actually a possibility the div can be cancelled?

Let's wait for the results and presentation next thursday anyway

[sapporo59] 02/9/2022 08:55

ok, fair enough, I did see the large instit buy now, apologies

[kadvfn1] 02/9/2022 07:56

It wasn't a sell off by institution but stock changing hand mainly imo

[rosejs2] 02/9/2022 02:29

On the 31st Aug 2022.LF Gresham House UK Multi Cap Income fund announced they had accumulated 6.37% share capital of Duke.. A signicant glimmer of light on how they perceive the prospects for Duke.

[sapporo59] 01/9/2022 22:33

huge sell off by the instis, quite concerning, anybody?

[bwm2] 26/8/2022 12:42

Was very happy to add today at the off

[btgman] 26/8/2022 12:37

I don't like the share price action other than the ability to gain a 9% return. I am not concerned about Duke their model is solid and their exposure to risk is less than most as they are the first to get paid.

AIMHO
GLA
BTG

[roddyb] 26/8/2022 08:43

I really don't like the share price price action, Mr Market seems to doubt the company's exposure to risk. I thought it was solid at 36p and enjoyed the ride upwards but was it broke my entry point on the way back down that sent SELL signals to me. I don't think I am the only one as we have drifted down to 32p on what has been a great income producing share.

[btgman] 26/8/2022 08:29

Over 9% return results and presentations due 8th September. Lets see what the results bring but very undervalued down here 40p still yields a solid 7%

AIMHO
GLA
BTG

[cwa1] 24/8/2022 17:49

Some fairly chunky looking trades going through today

[btgman] 04/8/2022 08:30

Excellent trading update very happy to continue to add as funds become available. Yield currently over 8% with another record quarter forecast to September. Looking forward to September accounts and dividend declaration.

AIMHO
GLA
BTG

[smidge21] 04/8/2022 08:28

Bought 150k yesterday funded out of TRIG where I see limited upside after steady improvement; no offers this morning - not a great surprise

[swiss paul] 04/8/2022 08:26

I thought it would have contained a bit more of a future projection which concerns me. It does state in the announcement:
We look forward to updating our shareholders on our progress in the near future."

So would have preferred this now rather than a teaser.

[cwa1] 04/8/2022 07:40

Neil Johnson, CEO of Duke Royalty, said:

"Despite the headwinds prevalent in the world economy and the volatility seen in global stock markets, it was business as usual for Duke in the quarter. I am pleased to report that the Company produced another record of normalised cash revenue in Q1 FY23 and I expect this growth trend to continue into Q2 FY23 by virtue of Duke's annual yield adjustments linked to underlying companies' revenue performance in this inflationary macro-environment. Duke's secured position and exposure to 48 different underlying operating companies provides investors with exposure to a diverse portfolio of profitable, long-established businesses in low-risk sectors which are well managed to navigate through challenging environments.

The Company's flexible model continues to be attractive to SMEs operating 'buy and build' acquisition strategies and management buy-out opportunities, as such we continue to review a healthy number of new investment opportunities. While we have increased total liquidity available, we will continue to deploy capital prudently through our rigorous due diligence and evaluation process in light of the changing macro-economic conditions. We look forward to updating our shareholders on our progress in the near future."

[btgman] 03/8/2022 10:43

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the majority of Duke's Companies to have done well last year. Your comments suggest you don't think they will have. The results will confirm.

Duke are across many sectors and locations it is very negative to infer last year won't be positive and next year will show a down turn. If last year is positive and next year is negative it would be neutral.

Let's wait for the results

AIMHO
GLA
BTG

[carcosa] 03/8/2022 09:57

Which companies do you think will have significant changes in their reported turnover and why?

Inflation is great for us provided demand remains. That's somewhat doubtful.

Personally am far more interested in the change to fair value; which I am estimating to be about GBP 3.1m

[btgman] 03/8/2022 09:46

There are a lot more companies than that I still have a view that we will see positives in the results to be released in September 2022.

What is the thinking behind lower revenues going forward. A thought is royalties are based on turnover we have inflation which leads naturally to increase in prices charges which leads to higher turnover. I get turnover may drop in a tough climate but the inflation aspect initially points to a higher turnover on a stand still basis.

AIMHO
GLA
BTG

[carcosa] 03/8/2022 09:03

The reset is calculated once a year, each year for the life of the royalty agreement, based on the gross revenue growth (or decline) of the royalty partner over the preceding twelve months.

The first possibilities are shown below for the mentioned companies:

Tristone: 30 June 2022
Atlas 01: Jan 2023
Creō-Tech: 01 Jan 2023
Meteor HoldCo: March 2022

However, seems to me several of the older companies may report lower revenues over their preceding 12 months and it will not be until this time next year that we start seeing higher annual revenues because of timing issues.

[btgman] 03/8/2022 07:24

Results due September from memory I am expecting a significant number of 6% royalty uplifts as portfolio likely to have traded well last year
AIMHO
GLA
BTG

[melody9999] 02/8/2022 22:30

No issue with investee companies during the pandemic - and not sure why it would be any different now. Recent additional funding in sectors such as IT services, care homes, data / telecoms, leisure (caravan parts) looks OK to me.

[btgman] 02/8/2022 20:23

Duke is a classic long term compounding asset most don't understand the concept of long term let alone compounding.
AIMHO
GLA
BTG

[wednesday6] 02/8/2022 20:06

Duke’s royalty Companies proved remarkably solid during the pandemic. All the loans are secured on assets. The one royalty company that went bust DUKE took their assets which was 3 river boats and sold them at a 5% loss.

[btgman] 02/8/2022 19:19

You don't hold reasonably cyclical. Sounds like you need to go and do a serious amount of research.
Have done this I am more than comfortable Duks is well placed for continuing returns and capital appreciation via exit fees and equity holdings
AIMHO
GLA
BTG

[riverman77] 02/8/2022 18:10

There seems to be a lot of focus on the size of the dividend, but little attention to what's under the bonnet. How resilient are the underlying companies in the event of a severe recession? If one of these goes under then you can say goodbye to the 2.8p dividend (or whatever it is). I don't hold currently, but if I did I would want to take a close look at the royalty companies. I can see some of them look reasonably cyclical.

[podgyted] 02/8/2022 11:23

The company has been dreadfully quiet since the placing - it looks like people are getting nervous, myself included.

Opportunity or poisoned chalice?