Smith (ds) Share Discussion Threads

[marksp2011] 05/12/2019 15:11

Gabster
I think that is the issue with the numbers.
they are chock full of adjustments and "underlying" and reported profit increases but
underneath all that

Debt rose - not big but going the wrong way
FCF generation fell - not big but down
There are obvious issues in North Europe and the US - no hiding those - big numbers.
Some of the other areas have grown well.

Overall it looks like adding Europac has let the ship stay where it was as the original business has faltered. These results should have been a big fanfare on how the market was wrong to underestimate SMDS but they havent done that. the allegation was that they had overpaid and at the wrong time in the cycle. i don't think these results have proved the maysayers wrong

[gabsterx] 05/12/2019 14:51

Did anyone watch the webcast? One of the analysts highlighted that the results ex. Europac (ie organic growth) was negative, there were some evasive answers by the CFO rambling about the addition of Europac making 'mathematical' sense and that prices of paper had gone down by 20% so what did he expect.. Not very convincing.

They did give a strong guidance for H2 growth though and underlying fundamentals are still sound, I'll be adding some more shares of it drops below 350p.

[moorsie2] 05/12/2019 14:19

Market really destroying this half year result news. Management needs to reflect and consider a way forward

[martindjzz] 05/12/2019 10:42

Been holding since mid 2015 and am slightly underwater versus my average acquisition cost with divis producing an overall positive return for me. Having listened to the half year webcast this morning I am optimistic about better times ahead.

[marksp2011] 05/12/2019 08:35

I would strongly recommend reading Note 3 to the accounts

[gabsterx] 05/12/2019 08:13

Market does not seem to like it, probably read through the lines that organic growth was weak and masked by Europac performance.. Don't mind the correction as I've been waiting to add some more shares to my position.

[martinthebrave] 05/12/2019 07:50

SMDS A bit to do in H2 but looks okay to me. Plastics division sale to complete before year end, 30% PBT growth & pretty positive outlook "we anticipate an acceleration of volume growth in the second half of the year which, together with the resilience of our business model, supports our expectation of further growth in the year". I do hold these though as they seem to be in a nice space.

[marksp2011] 05/12/2019 07:40

That is a really mixed bag.

Revenue was flat and times look tough in N Europe and the US

Debt leverage is 2.3x
Debt is up a bit and FCF is down again.

The market will either see these as in line or, will react to the deteriorating cash position which is one of the "negatives" often quoted about the company versus the competition.

Your guess is as good as mine as to what the reaction will be but I would wait for it all to calm down before buying anything.

Then again, I could be wrong. I thought Galliford would sell the construction bit and concentrate on building houses. How wrong can one man be :)

[gabsterx] 05/12/2019 07:38

Solid results, however not looking good in North America where rapid growth was expected. Got hammered both on top line and even more on profits.

Also this: "For the half year period, revenues increased by 3% (4% on a reported basis), principally reflecting the contribution from Europac and volume growth in corrugated boxes."

I was not able to find how much Europac contributed to revenue.. I think we would have seen a decline in sales without the Europac boost.

[togglebrush] 05/12/2019 07:13

Interims out Revenue (+4%), Profits before Tax (+30%),
Divi 5.4p (+4%) XD 14 Apr Paid 1st May

[riggerbeautz] 05/12/2019 07:12

Those results look good to a new investor, be interested what everyone makes of them.

[jeffian] 04/12/2019 10:57

Maybe, maybe not. I think macro-economic issues rule at the moment - Brexit, trade wars, banking system worries - so good results do not necessarily get their immediate rewards. This is one of my bigger holdings as a result of transferring part of my ill-gotten gains from RPC and for me it is just a question of leaving it there and collecting the divis with the aim of long-term growth, not short-term gains.

[97peter] 03/12/2019 22:11

Should be good figures with turnover and acquisitions and sales all sorted and doing well. Then Friday and or Monday we should see SMDS back over 400p.

[moorsie2] 03/12/2019 17:21

Sector has had a horrible two days. Lets hope management impress with dazzling numbers and story on Thursday

[moorsie2] 02/12/2019 09:06

good buying opportunity ahead of results - trading significantly below its peer SKG at the moment

[s00172] 01/12/2019 16:53

mondis results weren't too compelling- shares dropped 3% b4 picking up

[alan@bj] 01/12/2019 09:13

Interim results this Thursday. The City will be looking for an update on cost savings on the acquisition of Europac, and analysts at Jefferies expect full year pre-tax profits up 6.2% to £604.3m, according to The Sunday Times.

[bertymole] 01/12/2019 06:59

A buying opportunity beckons

[moorsie2] 25/11/2019 15:44

Can see the potential for a nice 8 day run up to results on 5th Dec here.

Looking at how SKG has appreciated since Sept then SMDS has at least 25 to 30p more to catch up on..

lets see if it happens

[dr_smith] 19/11/2019 09:36

Just checking, I see HY results due 5/12/19:

[jeffian] 17/11/2019 23:18

EJ,
Please don't remind me about FOUR! I used to be a shareholder in Bemrose via a family connection and didn't really understand what it was about when they sold the printing businesses and became a 'virtual' promo company. Sold at around 40p. Price today? About £30. Ouch!

[riggerbeautz] 17/11/2019 22:49

Good to hear from you Moorsie, I’ll add at some point my real concern is the wider economy, for that reason I’ve very few longs but this looked oversold earlier in the year and it still does now.

[dr_smith] 17/11/2019 21:27

While we're in review mode...
Like a few here, I used to be in RPC too.
Gut tells me online market should have positive effect on deamnd, though not aware of general market demand, but on basis of likes of PMI and other indices assume it is somewhere between flat and single digit percent increase presently for packaging.
Is all packaging paper and/or plastic, are there other materials?

I am surprised we haven't seen evidence of plastics scaling back, but expect future policies will result in (non-reusable) plastics use to slowly come down, so paper (and any other green packaging materials) to increase.

Paper based seems to have had a rough time recently due to cost of raw materials, and green aspect hasn't compensated (yet) like I would have expected...so if higher input costs can't be passed on to customer, that implies something else must be taking up demand.
Is that a swing to plastics or another material?
I have no hands on experience in this sector, so unsure why higher input costs can't be passed on to customer.
Anyone know why?
Dave