Smith (ds) Share Discussion Threads

[moorsie2] 17/11/2019 19:39

Hi Riggerbeautz

Yes sentiment on cyclicals moved to positive just 2 weeks ago and this one was heavily oversold on the way down when sentiment moved against the industry 14 months ago.

I feel this has more to run to get back to industry average. 430 or so I will review my holding

[davr0s] 17/11/2019 16:31

I had a share a few years back that started small and I added as it broke out and repeated itself until it became 40% of my account lol. It then tanked one day and I sold having lost something like 15% in one day. But it added in the region of 25% to my account. It's why I do what I do now as when they come along they can transform your account profitability. I'm not expecting SMDS to be that kind of share as it's quite a large mkt cap already but you never know how far they are going to go when they start moving

[jeffian] 17/11/2019 16:14

EJ,
Sorry if we've had this discussion before on another thread - it's a point I often feel moved to respond to - but I find myself in a similar position to you but at the other end of the spectrum in investing attitude. I know it depends entirely on one's appetite for risk and that at our time of life we should be avoiding risk and putting it all in bonds or cash but, like someone else above, I find myself drawn to winners and for the past decade or so have specifically targeted shares in my portfolio which are performing well and yet still do not seem expensive and continue to pile into those. The result is that my most successful shares often represent a significant proportion of my portfolio - over 50% in one case - and that is how one can achieve outperformance. If you set a target of 3% for any one share, you will always be selling winners and your performance is bound to be average. I came to SMDS from RPC which, via additions and Rights Issues etc had come to represent 12% of my portfolio before the takeover. As I say, I entirely respect that you may with good reason be more risk-averse, but it's a method which is bound to punish your best shares.

[davr0s] 16/11/2019 18:39

Yeah it's on my watch list for Monday. I'm a systematic trader and I've done a lot of analysis across 10years of UK and US data as knowing when to sell and not when you buy is the really hard bit. My aim is always to buy into a share breaking upwards and hold forever (well until the trend breaks). The sweet spot varies with market conditions which makes it doubly hard. So for this share I buy the break and will sell if it drops below he recent consolidation regardless. I then ride the trend until the trend weakens and breaks - I have absolutely no idea at what level that will occur!

[joshuam] 16/11/2019 17:51

Good points davros biggest problem I have is selling too early or not selling quick enough, always good to re-evaluate your stock regularly and read others view points. I have gone long......good luck all.

[davr0s] 16/11/2019 11:25

Price can go anywhere but ask yourself this question... If you sell or top slice a share breaking out then how will you ever own a share that going to be a bigger winner. Key to this game is hanging onto shares going up and adding to them as they can become big winners and avoiding the big losers which means chopping shares that break down as not all come back up and these are the ones that destroy your portfolio

[davr0s] 16/11/2019 11:21

I sold out much higher up when trend broke but looking interesting again. Of course price can go anywhere but any share making 52w high is one I'd want to already be in or consider buying as I trend trade

[97peter] 15/11/2019 16:00

Patience all PI's this is going steady and upwards between now and May 2020, back to 420p by February 2020, then onto 450 by May 2020. Plenty of new contracts and mergers and acquisitions all now merged and in profit, plus plastic company sold and funds from that going into business and next years divi.

[craftyale] 15/11/2019 08:25

Take a look at the share price previous to the past 12 months. More than a hold here.

[joshuam] 15/11/2019 08:14

12 month high reached, I’m in that what to do area top skim or hold

[moorsie2] 05/11/2019 14:20

VRP had a buy on Smurfit Kappa to 32 euros at the same time it set a buy on SMDS to 428.

They have now said that as the target price has been reached they reduce SKG to a hold.

Shows how much more this one could run now that sentiment has changed in the sector...

[bountyfull] 05/11/2019 09:05

The Motley Fool rates SMDS too -

[joshuam] 01/11/2019 10:00

428 would be very welcome moorsie

[moorsie2] 01/11/2019 09:03

Hi Jos

Yes indeed I hope you are right. I saw yesterday that industry analysts VRP has put a price target of 428 on this.

My comment was purely based on what the company was likely to report on 5th December and therefore was struggling to sè what the company could say or do to move the share price VRPs view is that the share price has fallen so much that it is now at a discount to others and therefore worth a few quid as opposed to anything the company is actually doing

[joshuam] 01/11/2019 08:50

Moorsie, you say we are stuck in a range but the chart looks to me like higher lows and trending higher highs

[97peter] 31/10/2019 18:10

EJ checkout uk.stoxline.com there site has been purity accurate over the last 12-18 months with Footasylum, BAE, STX, Proactis, STX, SMDS andXPS but good name 8-12 shares I have bought in and out of DYOR.

[moorsie2] 31/10/2019 12:44

But happy to be proven wrong :)

[moorsie2] 31/10/2019 09:34

stuck in this 345 - 365 range it seems.

Hard to see anything the company will report or do over the next two months that will break it out..

[alan@bj] 31/10/2019 08:30

Looks okay to me. Pretty much as expected.

[jeffian] 30/10/2019 22:39

For traders, maybe, but it fits my investment criteria.