Smith (ds) Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 17/10/2019 14:59

Moorsie, I'm guessing you are either holding some large stock positions and/or
have an association with the sector.

[moorsie2] 17/10/2019 14:24

Easy. I subscribe to the industry data. Simples www.risi.com

[essentialinvestor] 17/10/2019 14:14

Where do you get your info from!!. You always appear to have sector
news at your fingertips ).

[moorsie2] 17/10/2019 10:56

So monthly German published paper prices are having a much bigger impact on the share price that the breakthrough of a brexit deal between UK and EU!! Funny old world

[taurusthebear] 16/10/2019 11:29

Not entirely true, as there are often forced buyers and forced sellers. Also, many PIs operate stop-losses; rather less so than those that operate stop-gains, I imagine.

[moorsie2] 16/10/2019 07:19

please do not misunderstand me. I have no disrespect to you or any other genuine contributor on here.

I just know this sector well as an investor following it for over 10 years.

My personal view is that SMDS is not a good investment at these prices based on its fundamentals of constantly declining ROCE over the last 4 years and below its peers. However I do hold shares on the hope that strategically it becomes attractive to others as the price drops and therefore the premium they have to offer becomes affordable.

Best of luck to your investment strategies

[taurusthebear] 15/10/2019 20:56

Moorsie2 filtered. :0)

[moorsie2] 15/10/2019 15:49

:) the quote of 24 hours was just illustrative of the bigger point from yesterday not the time horizon for my investment decisions.

There is however a peculiar silver lining to my dark cloud comments re valuation to peers. If SMDS continues to underperform in share price to its peers (most probably as a result of over paying for acquisitions) it perversely becomes more attractive to an aquisitor. Remember in 2018 IP from the US came looking to buy SKG. So maybe IP or West Rock could be interested in buying a low price SMDS especially when sterling is low and borrowing costs are low.... Unique window of opportunity maybe

[jeffian] 15/10/2019 15:35

24hrs, eh? A 'Long Term Holder'?!

;-)

[moorsie2] 15/10/2019 15:30

p.s. in the last 24 hours since we started this particular discussion Mondi and Smurfit has outperformed SMDS in share price gain....

[taurusthebear] 15/10/2019 14:44

Moorsie2 - there's a bloke called Warren Buffett who has done quite well over the years, not in momentum investing or buying trendy shares but by buying, and holding, shares in companies that offer value because, for whatever reason, they have been overlooked by the market.

If you want to chase the market, good luck, but there's an undeniable logic, regardless of timescale, to BLASH.

If you can't see it, keep taking the pills. :0)

[moorsie2] 15/10/2019 06:56

Well done congratulations.

I am simply pointing out the logic error in your statement that could lead to loss of investment. Nothing personal

Good luck

[moorsie2] 14/10/2019 19:15

Taurus - please explain why you make that statement. It is obviously illogical! If true then we should all invest in underperforming shares because on your logic it will bounce back stronger over time! Point to me any share or sector this pattern has occurred over the last 5 years!??

[taurusthebear] 14/10/2019 13:35

"However I have done this and against its most similar competitor share price in SMDS has been hit much more than the share price in SKG over the last 10 months..."

Hence it should do better going forward. Doh!

[moorsie2] 14/10/2019 12:58

Erogenous - the way to test your hypothesis is to benchmark other companies in the same sector exposed to the same markets you refer (Germany, USA, UK etc) and see how they fare. If they follow a similar trend then you are right.

However I have done this and against its most similar competitor share price in SMDS has been hit much more than the share price in SKG over the last 10 months...

I am bearish on this one..

[buyzantium] 11/10/2019 10:15

EJ - Very well done, must admit I was tempted but failed to to take the opportunity. I remain a strong long term holder albeit the volatility continues to be unsettling. Many weak holders must have been shaken out by the antics of the MM's and short term traders.

[pughman] 06/10/2019 20:01

If ever there was a share to embrace the volatility with,its DS Smith. I've lost count of the number of times I've traded it in the last 5 months.