Smith (ds) Share Discussion Threads

[sammyshares] 30/10/2019 21:21

Becoming a chore to hold.

[jeffian] 30/10/2019 20:21

And there are a few of those about!

You can't forecast a share price. If it was that easy we'd all be millionaires.

[moorsie2] 30/10/2019 19:28

97Peter - I am sorry but uk politics is virtually irrelevant for SMDS share price!

Very little of their revenue and profits are from operations in uk and of those revenues the sensitivities to domestic politics are very very marginal.

Misleading and or misinformed posts are dangerous for amateur investors!

[97peter] 30/10/2019 19:11

Forecasts for 6 months are 430p and 12 months 503p. Starting to believe once we get a Cons majority in Gov, watch this country and business fly.

[97peter] 26/10/2019 20:27

Thanks both Moorsie and EJ.

[moorsie2] 26/10/2019 13:11

Trading update at the end of this week starting tomorrow

[97peter] 26/10/2019 08:31

Moorsie and bear is this going to break 370p? Have not seen any quarterly figures from DS Smith about new orders or packaging output. Have you guys seen any recent figures? I am a long term holder with quite a large stake but happy with divi’s and acquisitions and takeovers, what next for SMDS? Anyone?

[moorsie2] 24/10/2019 17:48

I have bought a few bear :)

[taurusthebear] 24/10/2019 16:00

This could be in danger of going above 360p again, notwithstanding further stable genius tweets. :0)

[dr_smith] 21/10/2019 17:14

Had to think about that.
I am happy with my real name thank-you Mr Scanjet. ;-)

[scanjet17] 21/10/2019 16:45

To avoid confusion perhaps Dave should change his name to Mike?

[dr_smith] 21/10/2019 13:44

Cheers Moorsie.
Dave (Middle name Russell, not a Doc)

[moorsie2] 21/10/2019 12:21

spot on again Dr Smith

[dr_smith] 21/10/2019 12:19

The old adage is "where there is a will there is a way", so if plastics were taxed (like diesel and petrol to influence), then there would be increased commercial imperative to find alternative packaging - and the green tax could also be used as grants to bolster commercial research.
At presnt I see likes of SMDS only being re-active not pro-active to green issues, so another reasdon why I think gov policy is needed - and on a world basis too, though likes of Trump is more desctructive than constructive on world stage to address these issues, and as we are in a world market, is does need worldwide policies.
I don't really know the paper industry/SMDS, but I assumed they would have a R&R section for developing alternatves to plastic. Upon reflection, they must use age old processes and any creativity is in style of packaging, whereas industrial chemists are the skills required.
My idle thoughts.
Dave

[moorsie2] 21/10/2019 09:45

Good analysis.

My opinion is that move from plastic and ecommerce are only small factors in the performance of this sector now and over the next 5 plus years. But all the public and investors know such factors and therefore can empathise with such stories...

[dr_smith] 21/10/2019 09:10

Pondering whether Bre*it affects the business, I found t/o by country on page 4 of annual report.

"Where we operate
Our corrugated packaging business operates in five geographic segments,
four in Europe and one in North America. Recycling and paper form an
integrated part of our global supply chain operations."

I can't think of any Bre*it influences up or down.
Green issues:
I am surprised by lack of marked evidence of supposed moving out from plastics.
I can only guess wood pulp supply and prices are a constraint, so another material is dictated. Page 7 of the above report talks of sustainability, but I don't see a pronounced shift, only subtle. I sense corporate lip service to avoid plastics and it would seem it needs world governments to dictate - perhaps a plastix tax (if there isn't one alreasy?) is way to go.
IMO
Dave

[moorsie2] 21/10/2019 08:31

SCA and SKG announce quarterly results on 30th and SMDS on 31st announce a trading update.

Should get a good steady run up to these numbers with only upside to share price imho once announced as all bad news already factored into the price due to MNDI announcement

[marksp2011] 17/10/2019 21:08

I prefer MACF at the moment.
i have traded SMDS 3 times in the last few months and done OK but, I can see it not bouncing on one of these dips. It isn't the best in the sector and it has some stock specific issues. If we start to get growth again, all may be fine and dandy but.....wtfk.

[essentialinvestor] 17/10/2019 18:17

No industry association, besides following Jefferson Smurfit
prior to it becoming SKG. Hold a small amount of Mondi only, held SKG previously.
In terms of sector valuation a lot depends on whether we fall in to
recession in 2020/21. The sector is expensive on that outcome.
Longer term some interesting secular growth drivers (I hope!).
More consolidation for definite.

[moorsie2] 17/10/2019 18:16

Hi Steevie - you are right re occ. The drop today all happened after 12cet when risi announced paper price drops of circa 20 per tonne in Germany after 4 months or so of flat prices. Guess this has spooked the institutional holders and created sells. This may well continue for a few more days. But for private Investors it's not material enough to change an investment approach.

I have a peculiar view on this share. It definitely overpaid for the last 2 big acquisitions and has had a dropping ROCE to the lowest in the sector over the last 4 years. That's why its shares have been hit from 550 all the way to 335 now. I fear it can still go lower to 300 but if it does it becomes highly attractive as a TO itself and thus would come with a bid premium. Big caution is I always try to avoid investing in a dropping share on the basis that they could become a target. However for this one I have taken that plunge on the basis that the mgt need to do something to get out of a declining ROCE and the offer from IP to SKG has put a spotlight once more on transatlantic mega deals...

[stevieweebie2] 17/10/2019 18:04

Moorsie, I'm 40yrs in the paper industry next year but all in fine paper and tissue , never packaging. I hold this in my sipp and I'm slightly underwater at the moment I think. Occ market is being decimated by China pulling out but the raw material cost is also falling, the depots will be making a loss by now I would have thought but the manufacturing mill should be benefiting from cheap fibre. I haven't looked behind the drop today but it's a fairly steep one

[moorsie2] 17/10/2019 17:43

I have worked in the broader sector and had holdings of differing scales for over 20+ years, so I understand it and have always kept an interest in it. I also dont like to go too heavy with anyone company but rather look for valuation gaps and cyclical opportunities. Historically I was bullish on SKG as it traded at a discount to its peers. It no longer does and now the discount is with SMDS making them attractive in my reasoning. Finally I have always held in high regard MNDI for their strategic clarity allowing them to get the highest returns on capital in earnings.

What is your interest in this sector