Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[bluemango] 09/4/2024 13:16

Agree re the chart.

The clearest double bottom you could wish for - very bullish for future direction.

[marksp2011] 09/4/2024 13:05

@bull

Yes, I think psychology is 90% of it.

People think they know more than they do and they won't take a loss as that would admit they were wrong :(

All ends in tears

[justiceforthemany] 09/4/2024 12:57

Henry Hub gas price up near $2 again.

[marksp2011] 09/4/2024 12:49

LLB

80% of my pot is in collectives

5 key holdings at about 15% each 4 x Globals and 1 x UK Gilts

The other 17% is in a herd of ITs and debt/credit/infra funds

I only have 8% in single stocks and DEC was always a small position. I have been cycling them recently and kept the "profits" as stock so I now have c 1400 shares.

I try and work in percentages but I still choke 15% sounds OK, the cash value of that 15% is more than my house cost

[bulltradept] 09/4/2024 11:32

Marksp2011,

"Maybe its the difference between trading and investing?"

I think is probably is. Plus a whole host of factors people don't always take into account; psychology, temperament, etc etc.

[leoneobull] 09/4/2024 10:37

I reckon 1300 on cards within weeks at this momentum. Shorts put of the money, investor roadshows starting today. Chicago today, gotta be some buyers stateside

[kaos3] 09/4/2024 09:20

breakout into a new channel

with strenght and momentum

After double bottom

beautiful chart

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 09/4/2024 08:43

#Marksp2011, always interested to hear other views, portfolio weighting is so important, as demonstrated by DEC dropping 50%, if a holder was over weight it would hurt and send you scrabbling to recover it taking ever bigger risks pulling your hair out and that is if you have any left, the lessons are do not get over weight to start with, safety through diversification no matter how shiny the prizes and promised returns might be..

Sensible would be: ..?
PF of 20 * 5%
PF of 25 * 4%
PF of 50 * 2%
10% cash

I do not feel comfortable with an 8 * 12.5%, or even a 10 * 10% , 1 of those goes to the wall and it can take years to recover from, each to their own though, the counter argument of course is if a 10% holding goes on a rip you catch a lot more of it.. :o)..

[blue square] 09/4/2024 08:37

Dec doing well despite the shorts,
I called this wrong.

[marksp2011] 09/4/2024 08:28

@Lab,

I agree, most fund managers don't get near their index or chose an index that they can beat easily. SW run an EM equity fund and they have chosen a benchmark that is related to LIBOR/SONIA - completely irrelevant.

Returns are quoted after fees I pay 0.14% for my ETFs so not a great imposition

ETFs will meet the index less their charges. Some collective investments consistently beat their index.

Most traders are pretty poor at it and would be much better off in a global tracker and historically better off still in a quality screened global tracker doubling their pot every 6 years.

[marksp2011] 09/4/2024 08:18

@bull

% year TR on ISF is +5.61 positive but not exciting.

I know what you mean, if you can trade successfully you can get a better return. I doubled my money on Kier inside a year. The point I was making to the whingeing guy was that making a bet that loses 50% of your beans and then making another bet that gets most of the loss back doesn't win you a prize.

Stephen Yiu at Blue Whale Growth basking in the glory of beating the index sizeably in 2023 but ignoring the massive fall in 2022 - he just about broke even over the two years is not a cause for celebration. All it does is make punters feel the need to trade

The key thing about running a pension is that you need to manage risk against the return. I run a decent amount of money, well above the LTA as was, and I have very strict limits on single stock holdings both in terms of numbers and values.

Maybe its the difference between trading and investing?

[lab305] 09/4/2024 07:56

Desperate times need desperate measures . Most fund managers do not achieve the performances that you cite and then they take commission. My sipp was disproportionately weighted with Dec as it was withholding tax free and yes I criticized Dec relentlessly after a series of broken undertakings. Just look at the subsequent share performance .

[bagpuss67] 09/4/2024 07:38

Thnaks Marks. 15% tax in an ISA with the WBEN? I'm at HL.

[bulltradept] 09/4/2024 06:37

marksp2011,

The points you make do have merit. It all depends on what you are trying to achieve and in what time fame.

I've come to the conclusion most investors should beat the UK indexes every year, if they've managed their position sizing correctly and they do enough research. People say a lot of fund managers can't so it's best to invest in trackers, but they are up against the law of big numbers, retail investors don't have that so should AIMVHO beat them in percentage terms regularly.

[marksp2011] 09/4/2024 06:01

15% tax with a W8 Ben with AJB or ii

[marksp2011] 09/4/2024 06:00

5 year total returns annualisedDEC -1.87%LLOY. -0.61%VWRL +10.87% -Vanguard global trackerFundsmith equity I Acc +10.99% Probably the most famous UK based global equity fundFgqd. Fidelity global tracker with a quality screen +12.2%JGGI. +16.75% JP Morgan global best ideas Investment TrustWhere do you think a sensible person running a pension should be investing?

[bagpuss67] 09/4/2024 05:53

Sorry to raise an old subject again... I can see no tax is deducted in a SIPP but what about an ISA? I just bought in my ISA not my SIPP thinking they would be the aame tax treatment.

[marksp2011] 08/4/2024 20:47

Wow. You didn't get it did you!Let me try again.Losing a bucket load of money that obviously stressed you out judging by the month's of whining posts and then making the money back on another single stock trade is not a success and certainly no way to run a SIPP.A popular fund manager who lost 22% of his fund in 2022, but made 23% in 2023 was not a success. I could have done better in an instant access account at Chase.I could have put my SIPP in Kier last April at 62p and sold it this March at 140.....but I didn't. Just 1.5%. same with Hollywood Bowl. Just 1.25%Careering around with big punts on single stocks is a recipe for disaster. Let's see what you next one doesIt is people who can't run a portfolio that are encouraging the FCA to regulate SIPPs to stop fools being parted from their money by gambling it away and then crying about it afterwardsIf you can't do it properly then don't do it. Just buy a bond or a global trackerI hope that helps

[bountyhunter] 08/4/2024 20:12

Closed up in London and New York today.

[lab305] 08/4/2024 17:24

Yes I am proud that between October and now I recovered virtually all my losses from Dec . I was honest and posted when I sold out at a loss. When I last looked Government bonds didn't have a return of 35% in just over 5 months . You have the gall to criticize my profitable recovery strategy while likely wedded to substantial losses here. It is anyone that blindly believed Dec and followed them down fron 142p to 45p that "needs their head examining". Put simply I was right both then and now. I think it is you that needs lessons in profitability. !

[marksp2011] 08/4/2024 16:16

@lab

Please don't buy any dec shares
Your continual whining is hard to read.

Congratulations with your Lloyds shares. I wouldn't touch them with a barge pole but, every dog has it's day.

I would consider buying a government bond. I dont think you have the the psychological makeup for this game. Anyone who bought a load of DEC shares in a pension needs their head examining. You seem proud of your "double or quits" trade. I would be embarrassed.

Have you considered taking some lessons in portfolio construction?

have a good evening

[stevensupertrader] 08/4/2024 15:45

PAL, never be too greedy - already over £10 , be happy 😂

[this_is_me] 08/4/2024 15:05

Past the important £10 level. If we can get past the £11 level it is onwards and upwards to making serious money.

[tsmith2] 08/4/2024 14:00

US opens this moves up

[bulltradept] 08/4/2024 12:07

Perhaps a slow climb up at first though..