Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[kaos3] 25/3/2024 14:33

here. i am waiting for another 840p trade



gaps

editet ... was wrong chart for a few min

[blue square] 23/3/2024 10:42

I exited my position of 5800 shares
at £9 (9.60p with divi) in profit.
Disappointed that shorts keep
on rising and NYSE have run out of
steam.
I now see this a good intra-day
trading opportunity, if the circumstances are right because
of the NYSE listing
Long term bullish on this share but
I feel there is plenty of time to
position, I dont see this moving for
the next few months,so opportunities
elsewhere.

[aleman] 22/3/2024 21:34

Futures gas prices in Europe and Asia have risen slightly over 4-6 weeks. It's not a big rise but it's enough to drag US futures up marginally higher over the same timeframe. The pattern for futures and spot has been quite similar of late actually. They are all creeping up because the low price is encouraging suppliers to ease up and maybe do some maintenance or close older marginal wells, while demand only goes one way. The current low price contains within it the seeds of the next rise, though it will probably need Europe to shift its massive storage surplus first before any significant lift. A hot summer might quickly turn things around. I don't think the gas price will stay this low for long, though I would not rule out a small further fall yet thanks to that European surplus. It would only make suppliers ease off more, though, and ultimately lead to a bigger rise. Large or small, I think a rise is baked in - I just can't predict when any more than I can predict this summer's weather.

[stevensupertrader] 22/3/2024 19:49

PAL - Henry Hub and Natural gas Live price are the same . I cannot see any diff .

[bountyhunter] 22/3/2024 19:13

>> Just check natural gas live price

That's meaningless. Which natural gas are you actually looking at? I've posted the Henry Hub spot price which is the relevant baseline in the US so that's the most relevant gas price for DEC's 15% unhedged production and above whatever you may be looking at.
Only 85% hedged at significantly higher prices!

[stevensupertrader] 22/3/2024 17:04

Just check natural gas live price .
Only 85% is hedged and still 15% not .If gas price doesn’t recover from this Low level , future hedging will be down and revenue will be lower and always under pressure .

[bountyhunter] 22/3/2024 16:56

Where are you getting $1.64 from!?

It's the natural gas price in the US that's relevant where the Henry Hub price is the benchmark. Aside from that around 85% of DECs production is hedged at significantly higher prices!

.......................

[stevensupertrader] 22/3/2024 16:51

Everything is not going properly for DEC .
Natural Gas has dropping to $1.64 and share price in NYSE has fallen to its lowest trading
Of $11.05 . What is wrong with DEC and Mr Rusty . Nearly all that bought DEC are nursing with a deep wound and might not recover 😞

[bountyhunter] 22/3/2024 13:14

HH Natural Gas, the US benchmark:

.......................

[stevensupertrader] 22/3/2024 11:36

Nat. Gas $1.67 currently at 5 years low

[kaos3] 22/3/2024 08:23

same old .... from the smarts..... drive it down, load, 3-5 years rise, repeat

[fordtin] 22/3/2024 07:39

Well done lads, give yourselves a pat on the back and a big reward for trashing the share price and slashing the dividend!




Net Award
 
Shares Held Post-Award
 
% of Issued Share Capital




Rusty Hutson, Jr
18,989
 
1,226,634
 
2.58%


Bradley Gray
15,638
 
162,585
 
0.34%


Benjamin Sullivan
9,603
 
40,417
 
0.08%




To be fair, they are called performance share units. Nowhere did it say the performance had to be positive!

[leoneobull] 22/3/2024 06:53

Shorts have increased. Probably due to low natural gas prices in the US. 1.68....! If Donald T is reelected, markets fear there will be unending supply of natural gas emanating from his every pronouncement. Long and awaiting the dividend here!

[blue square] 21/3/2024 20:32

Its one those where you could just
come back, is Dec going to do anything
for the next 3-6 months, with shorts
now standing at 4.5%.

[bountyhunter] 21/3/2024 20:24

Or wait for the gas price to recover if the futures are correct.

[blue square] 21/3/2024 20:16

With shorts increasing, this could
stagnate, perhaps best to look for
other opportunities?

[2wild] 21/3/2024 18:28

Suspect OaTree never imagined natural gas in the US would fall by over 80% in just over 1 year

[justiceforthemany] 21/3/2024 18:25

Shorts continue to rise, even at these levels and with the dividend cut announced.

What unreleased info are they insider trading on?

[scrwal] 21/3/2024 16:30

The Oak Bloke still needs to modify his ARO reasoning. The $5,961,000 is purely in relation to the DEC wells being retired and not any third party wells which would be accounted for directly in the profit and loss account. The costs for DEC wells are debited straight to the ARO provision - there is no offsetting which if it was treated like that would result in a qualified audit report.

It was surprising to see Oaktree divest their interests but I believe that there may have been a breakdown in the business relationship as there was no participation by Oaktree in the 2023 acquisitions. Furthermore Oaktree tend to have fairly long term views on their investments and don't go for shorter term speculation so I have a nagging suspicion that Oaktree wanted to get out even if the timing wasn't ideal.

[aleman] 21/3/2024 12:37

Energy stocks have only been lower 3 times in the last 40 years - article in Shares Magazine.

[drk1] 21/3/2024 11:08

and quite a few of us Kaos3! ;-)

[kaos3] 21/3/2024 10:59

125 mil fc after the divi pa, + leverage gives a huge potential to play with compared to the present mc

and they do play

so i see dec suddenly as a growth story

a surprise to my self

[kaos3] 21/3/2024 10:57

well - i loaded lots in the last month or so... am just a few per cent in minus considering just one divi... and this stock will be put away to pay for itself in just a few years /divi + some divestment later on/

i see no down risks atm

fast deleveraging, fixed divi, cheap gas as an opp for mergers /done/ ... and on and on it goes

one to put away on an auto pilot for a few years - 4-5 years

[drk1] 21/3/2024 10:40

@elpirata - good to hear I'm, not alone and if we get anywhere near Stifel's target of 2800p, I'll be one very happy bunny! I think we are already seeing the impact of the revised strategy and sentiment change, even though there remains quite a substantial chunk of shorters, who as we all know, will have to close at some point. ;-)