Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[bountyhunter] 22/3/2024 13:14

HH Natural Gas, the US benchmark:

.......................

[stevensupertrader] 22/3/2024 11:36

Nat. Gas $1.67 currently at 5 years low

[kaos3] 22/3/2024 08:23

same old .... from the smarts..... drive it down, load, 3-5 years rise, repeat

[fordtin] 22/3/2024 07:39

Well done lads, give yourselves a pat on the back and a big reward for trashing the share price and slashing the dividend!




Net Award
 
Shares Held Post-Award
 
% of Issued Share Capital




Rusty Hutson, Jr
18,989
 
1,226,634
 
2.58%


Bradley Gray
15,638
 
162,585
 
0.34%


Benjamin Sullivan
9,603
 
40,417
 
0.08%




To be fair, they are called performance share units. Nowhere did it say the performance had to be positive!

[leoneobull] 22/3/2024 06:53

Shorts have increased. Probably due to low natural gas prices in the US. 1.68....! If Donald T is reelected, markets fear there will be unending supply of natural gas emanating from his every pronouncement. Long and awaiting the dividend here!

[blue square] 21/3/2024 20:32

Its one those where you could just
come back, is Dec going to do anything
for the next 3-6 months, with shorts
now standing at 4.5%.

[bountyhunter] 21/3/2024 20:24

Or wait for the gas price to recover if the futures are correct.

[blue square] 21/3/2024 20:16

With shorts increasing, this could
stagnate, perhaps best to look for
other opportunities?

[2wild] 21/3/2024 18:28

Suspect OaTree never imagined natural gas in the US would fall by over 80% in just over 1 year

[justiceforthemany] 21/3/2024 18:25

Shorts continue to rise, even at these levels and with the dividend cut announced.

What unreleased info are they insider trading on?

[scrwal] 21/3/2024 16:30

The Oak Bloke still needs to modify his ARO reasoning. The $5,961,000 is purely in relation to the DEC wells being retired and not any third party wells which would be accounted for directly in the profit and loss account. The costs for DEC wells are debited straight to the ARO provision - there is no offsetting which if it was treated like that would result in a qualified audit report.

It was surprising to see Oaktree divest their interests but I believe that there may have been a breakdown in the business relationship as there was no participation by Oaktree in the 2023 acquisitions. Furthermore Oaktree tend to have fairly long term views on their investments and don't go for shorter term speculation so I have a nagging suspicion that Oaktree wanted to get out even if the timing wasn't ideal.

[aleman] 21/3/2024 12:37

Energy stocks have only been lower 3 times in the last 40 years - article in Shares Magazine.

[drk1] 21/3/2024 11:08

and quite a few of us Kaos3! ;-)

[kaos3] 21/3/2024 10:59

125 mil fc after the divi pa, + leverage gives a huge potential to play with compared to the present mc

and they do play

so i see dec suddenly as a growth story

a surprise to my self

[kaos3] 21/3/2024 10:57

well - i loaded lots in the last month or so... am just a few per cent in minus considering just one divi... and this stock will be put away to pay for itself in just a few years /divi + some divestment later on/

i see no down risks atm

fast deleveraging, fixed divi, cheap gas as an opp for mergers /done/ ... and on and on it goes

one to put away on an auto pilot for a few years - 4-5 years

[drk1] 21/3/2024 10:40

@elpirata - good to hear I'm, not alone and if we get anywhere near Stifel's target of 2800p, I'll be one very happy bunny! I think we are already seeing the impact of the revised strategy and sentiment change, even though there remains quite a substantial chunk of shorters, who as we all know, will have to close at some point. ;-)

[elpirata] 21/3/2024 09:40

DEC & its peers fwiw

[elpirata] 21/3/2024 09:37

I bought again on Tuesday too Drk1, its been considerably derisked and the deleveraging reduction in enterprise value should correspondingly transfer to mcap enhancement, its not all about the (still 10%) divi, theres considerable share price upside from here imho, and thats notwithstanding any fututre buybacks

[mondex] 21/3/2024 09:25

EQT CEO warns lack of natural gas storage will trigger dramatic price swings
Joe Ryan, Bloomberg March 20, 2024
(Bloomberg) – The chief of the largest U.S. producer of natural gas has warned that a lack of pipelines and storage facilities will trigger dramatic price swings in the years ahead, causing them to surge as much 350%.

Gas demand in the U.S. has jumped 50% since 2010, while pipeline and storage capacity have increased just 25% and 10% respectively, EQT Corp. Chief Executive Officer Toby Rice said during an interview at the CERAWeek by S&P Global energy conference in Houston. That leaves the market prone to wild price swings, ranging from today’s level of about $1.75 per million British thermal units to as high as $8, Rice said.

“This is the world we live in unless we get serious about getting more infrastructure built,” said Rice, whose company last week agreed to buy Mountain Valley Pipeline developer Equitrans Midstream Corp.

Rice is a long-standing and vocal critic of the US regulatory framework and permitting process that he says holds up the construction of new pipeline infrastructure. In November, he warned that a pipeline crunch threatened to trigger an energy crisis. Rice also said in December that falling prices will lead to a slowdown in drilling, and that prices were well below the break even cost of production.

U.S. gas prices have undergone a dramatic collapse this year, plummeting to the lowest in four years and prompting several producers including EQT to slash production.

Another factor threatening to send prices swinging in the other direction is the dozens of coal plants that have closed in the US in recent years. Coal plants have traditionally helped keep gas prices in check because when it gets too expensive, electricity generators turn to coal for more of their power.

“That’s no longer an effective lid on prices,” Rice said. “So, you can see prices run through that and unfortunately start seeing industrial demand destruction driving price. That’s sort of the dynamic you saw in 2022 and would leave you with prices close to $8.”

[bluemango] 21/3/2024 09:06

People may not have picked up on the fact that Oakbloke has re-written and expanded his 19th March article, given it a new title but same link/reference as original one for that date (see header, or as copied below)

[drk1] 21/3/2024 08:47

As I said the other day, whilst a little taken aback by the substantial divi cut I see this as being good news and more importantly, a solid foundation for future growth which is why I did add pretty close to the bottom following the madness that ensued post RNS. In case anyone missed it, this is Stfel's take on events:-



Once the shorters have had their fill, we should see a substsntial & speedy recovery.

[bountyhunter] 20/3/2024 20:16

Closed up 1.14% in New York.

[bountyhunter] 20/3/2024 13:17

Huge volume yesterday, no surprise there but twice that in London vs New York.

[scrwal] 20/3/2024 12:47

I'm still waiting for the ARO supplement to be issued as the last one was for 30 June 2022.
Looking at the 2023 figures DEC is stating that it retired 222 of its own wells. The Annual Report on page 182 note 19 ARO obligations states that the Asset retirement costs were $5,961,000 which means the average cost per DEC well retired is $26,851 and not any lower net figure being shown elsewhere.

[bountyhunter] 20/3/2024 12:22

I thought you were saying "Lord God" for a moment 1k!