Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[whites123] 19/1/2024 08:24

topazfrenzy19 Jan '24 - 08:19 - 277 of 277

New lows tested and lower lows to be breached.

Dividends dont come into it when the dividends + share price = less than purchase price of stock.

Congress have not even sharpened their teeth yet and finances are dreadful.

£8 soon to be breached, what say you Topaz?

[stevensupertrader] 19/1/2024 08:23

DEC is a basket case , no buyback , share price just going south. 😞 😞 walleye just shorting like no tomorrow and having a laugh 😂

[topazfrenzy] 19/1/2024 08:19

Dividend coming up let's see this back at £12 please

[topazfrenzy] 19/1/2024 08:17

Whites, stop nursing your PFC losses on me, it's your fault you were buying that dog on that big bounce before it collapsed 40% two weeks later

You're only on this board to talk about me ... what a sad little man you are lol

[bluemango] 19/1/2024 08:16

Rusty must be having a rough time at the moment with people pulling him in different directions, but to my mind there are 2 clear priorities:

1. An energetic, aggressive campaign of investor presentations to existing and potential new institutional investors. If Rusty truly believes there is a compelling investment case then it needs to be communicated. Hopefully to institutions that aren't infected with the current woke aversion to O&G, but to those that know the need for a reliable Gas supply isn't going away and that there's serious money to be made.
2. Address the dividend. If there's a long term commitment to the current high level, then with the current ridiculously high yield surely buybacks are a non-brainer. But alternatively if there's a consideration for reducing it, even if only temporarily, then this boil needs lancing and start saving the cash. All the market requires is clarity.

Get the valuation back firmly on an upwards trajectory, then acquisitions etc become far easier.

[leoneobull] 18/1/2024 18:58

Time DEC came out with a superlative set of results end January to put all this speculation to rest.

[fordtin] 18/1/2024 17:27

Walleye raised their short from 0.5% to 0.61% on 16th, then dropped it to 0.58% yesterday.

[justiceforthemany] 18/1/2024 17:17

Crooked Wall Eye reducing their short a bit.

[bountyhunter] 18/1/2024 16:39

Time for a rise in New York now that London has closed?

.

[cassini] 18/1/2024 16:33

Indeed, if no one's seen Al Capone, sorry, Biden, threatening to end the Nordstream pipeline in what I'd call a turf war, watch this (for about 40 seconds).

Note the smirk at the end of his reply to the woman reporter. The plans were in the bag at that stage.

[whites123] 18/1/2024 15:30

topazfrenzy17 Jan '24 - 15:39 - 257 of 267

I see new lows have been reached.
I anticipated £8.00 this week, however it now looks like it will be next week £9.00 is breached and £8.00 beckons.

Jeeezuz Topaz, you dont half pick them.

[johnhemming] 18/1/2024 14:48

@scrwal I have not checked the details of the companies forecasting. The people who are funding the ABS (which are bankruptcy independent meaning no guarantees from the holding company) will have checked that.

The depletion rate itself reduces over time. I don't know precisely where to, but when I do my own forecasts I am only doing reasonableness forecasts over the next 5-10 years.

It remains, however, that to keep up the dividend they need to do acquisitions and I cannot think they will do an RNS on any acquisition (where any contract may already be signed) until they announce the annual results.

The issue with this sort of production is that the tail goes on for a long time and can be matched to an extent with interest bearing debt.

[parob] 18/1/2024 14:14

Bounced off the 955p area twice now. Let's hope that's the bottom.

[topazfrenzy] 18/1/2024 13:56

Imagine they actually increase the dividend this year! We'll soon be at 40% yield lol

[stevensupertrader] 18/1/2024 13:31

Goodness - what is the yield if old money was 48p ? Must be about 30%?

[loganair] 18/1/2024 13:25

Down to 48p in old money which is down circa 60% from its 1 year high and 70% from its 3 year high.

[scrwal] 18/1/2024 13:23

johnhemming
Re your post 7347 where you quote your depletion rate compared to those used by the company. Given said rates what is your view on the June 2022 ARO supplement where a major assumption is "4.5% long term production decline rate".

[brianblu] 18/1/2024 13:20

Finding this all strange company releases no reason for drop but wow what a constant drop mmm 🎣

[cassini] 18/1/2024 13:14

FUD - Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt...

[sandeep67] 18/1/2024 13:10

politics and uncertainty is driving the volatility here and everyone knows Mr Market does not uncertainty

[97peter] 18/1/2024 12:35

UK shareholders just need a little patience and once we get a week or 2 before x-divi date, the shortest and MM fraudsters will disappear and run to the hills as this gets back to £12 a share a week before x-divi date!!

[renewed1] 18/1/2024 12:33

Its interesting how all of the experts including presumably the equities shorting,investors chronical etc are so well informed about the profitability and cash flow of the business when they cant possably know the details of the hedging that has been taking place and is in place for the next two years. Rusty says there is no operational or company-specific reason for decline. The banks signed off the finances a few weeks ago!!!!
So unless that ex CFO knew something and has spilled the beans I cant see how so many people consider they know there is a financial problem/ or not within the company!!!!

[johnhemming] 18/1/2024 12:21

@riskvreward time will tell. I have done my own modelling. Form 20f is quite informative.

[riskvsreward] 18/1/2024 12:01

Every share buyback will save almost a third of today’s share price for the company in just one year and basically means the cash used to buyback shares at today’s price will pay it back in three years. Can one be 100% sure that any new investment in other assets will ensure a long term return of this magnitude? You also ignored the fact that buyback means less demand on the cash for future dividend payment. As long as the dividend payment is decreasing faster than the depletion effects of the current production assets, depletion is not an issue because by the time depletions is an issue, the shareholders have long been adequately awarded by the dividends. Of course, if share price increases significantly or the dividends is much reduced, the. The merit of capital deployment will be a different matter. So it is dynamic and the management is paid to manage such dynamic effectively.