Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[carcosa] 15/11/2022 08:55

I think it's quite easy to dismiss most analysts price targets. For example earlier this year Cenkos said

"– We update our valuation following the East Texas acquisition, increasing our price target to 181p, a 48% premium to the current share price"

So basically pick any number you like.

[spangle93] 15/11/2022 08:26

Cenkos note out this morning

We increase our price target following the Q3/22 results to 174p (from 166p), a 32% premium to the current share price.

[asp5] 15/11/2022 04:58

DEC have recently stopped buying back shares. Given that they ceased purchasing shares exactly 2 weeks before yesterdays announcment, I was wondering if anyone on this board is aware of any blackout rules that apply?

Will be interesting to see over coming days if the buybacks start back up ......

[1knocker] 14/11/2022 21:32

Total return is what counts for me Lab. And the prospect of that total return continuing.

But if you know a better investment, sell up DEC and invest there. It is not compulsory to hold any share.

[lab305] 14/11/2022 20:47

1knocker your analogy is fatuous. The hedging level has increased over the years as has seemingly the distance into the future. Since you have such a grasp of history you will remember the stock hitting 1.32 back in early 2018. Pity we did not maintain that trajectory. Have you compared the performance of other US gas companies over the last couple of years ? They are not as you imply all similar. Anyway we have crossed swords before over the same issue. Your glass is half full and mine half empty . Gas prices have been higher than Dec achieves for years now and the gap is widening.

[fred177] 14/11/2022 18:42

No 1knocker he should have made millions with his big position you are so rude

[voci] 14/11/2022 16:19

Malcy likes Dec:

DEC continues to deliver, its model is straightforward and has been proven since it came to this market, the strategy of acretive acquisitions is proven time and time again. The model makes for increasing production, 135 Mboepd in Q3 increasing to 144 at the quarters exit as the Conoco deal feeds in.

Opex rose slightly but on the back of higher gas prices and is still low and gives sector beating cash margins staying over 50%. The 20% fcf yield remains a highly positive metric, it ticks a lot of boxes and with successful hedging increasing gas prices in 2023 by 8% and in 2024 by some 4% means that the company has been able to increase the 3Q dividend to 4.375c as well as buying back some 8m shares with more to do.

It is worth looking at just how attractive DEC shares are, especially when compared to its peer group. On the dividend front the company reminds us that it has the potential to deliver ~$5 billion of dividends equal to ~4x current market capitalisation which significantly proves the point, as does the point made above by using the strong dollar to buy in undervalued shares.

Also the strong cash flow covers current plugging liabilities and the asset retirement performance is making significant progress with its ‘illustrative’ 50-year model along with the Next LVL team where market dominance is expected.

I remain positive that the company are delivering in all areas, I expect more acquisitions and therefore more ABS securitisations which will yet again firm up the base. This in turn funds fcf, dividend payments and buy-backs and gives me confidence that the shares will perform via both capital and income returns, holders should be delighted.


hxxps://www.malcysblog.com/2022/11/oil-price-dec-union-jack-sdx-and-finally/

[push n run] 14/11/2022 15:18

Scrwal, I noticed that as well, they have assumed the dividend would remain below the current value. Another thing I wasn't sure about was the expectations for the forward gas price strip being above the current long term strip at $4.66.

They also haven't taken buybacks into account on that working.

I assume this all means that they think they are ahead of schedule in terms of cash generation, but it would be nice to get some clarification.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 14/11/2022 13:54

Each to their own, but this is exactly why I am invested here, for the downside protection in what can be a very volatile market place..

Through a consistent and appropriate hedging strategy, we prefer to mitigate revenue volatility and protect cash flows to fund accretive growth and support our commitment to deliver stable dividends for investors while maintaining prudent leverage. As one observes our model against this market backdrop, with a portfolio of existing wells, substantial natural gas reserves, and consistently strong, growing free cash flow, we are positioned as a clear market solution to the needs of the energy transition given our proven ability to extend the lives of existing mature wells and avoid the drilling of new wells.

[lab305] 14/11/2022 13:12

Expected that Woodhawk, usual stock rebuff to criticism. Why don't you address the point ??? I have been invested here since 2017 and remain so with around 600k shares at present. It has been a good investment and I picked the right sector but when compared to other gas producers it's a dog. They should be awash with cash right now not going cap in hand to banks to borrow at 7.5% . I note that the speed of acquisitions has slowed and no wonder as the price of gas producers will have rocketed and quite rightly so. We should have the cash from sales to easily purchase more assets but we have not all due to the very high level of hedging.... and regrettably it's in place for years. They did very good deals at the right time and run the assets extremely well and so I remain invested in the hope that one day they will achieve the potential which is blatantly obvious.

[woodhawk] 14/11/2022 12:46

Worth a read...

[woodhawk] 14/11/2022 12:29

Why have you invested in a 'corpse called hedging" in the first place then, lab305? Didn't you undertsand the model? Didn't you do any research? Doesn't seem like you have a clue what you are doing. Suggest you sell up and move on, given your view.

[scrwal] 14/11/2022 12:28

Divi up to 4.375c per quarter but the ARO on page 11 has as a Major Assumption Dividends held at 17c for 5 years being 40% of FCF.
The 2022 presentation on page 11 is different to the 2021 page 13 especially regarding the time frame which is now 50 years down from 75 but the overall totals are very similar.

[1knocker] 14/11/2022 11:19

The dividend rise is welcome. Sterling is up a bit at present which will reduce the value to sterling holders, but with a government which has been in power 12 years spending as though there is no tomorrow (let's hope they are not right about that) and only now noticing that the cupboard is bare, it remains reassuring to have some dollar earnings.

[holts] 14/11/2022 11:17

Damp squid

[renewed1] 14/11/2022 09:02

Thanks Tag...well pointed out.

[tag57] 14/11/2022 08:52

R1 - Dec have bought back 8m shares /$12m dollars not 8% of shares.

[renewed1] 14/11/2022 08:37

Sounds like a very good chance of the US listing coming off in the next 6 months....Still a SIPP banker!!

[renewed1] 14/11/2022 08:31

Given theyve used our money to buy back 8% of the shares I thought a 3% uplift in Divi a bit miserly!!!!

[carcosa] 14/11/2022 07:18

New presentations



Also new corporate presentation here:


(seems like this is an unauthorised publication i.e in Draft form with multiple comments saying data need modifying etc., in the Supplementary section.

From

Shows asset retirement, dividends, third party revenues etc etc etc.

[shanklin] 14/11/2022 07:17

Slide 15 is worth a look…

PDP PV10 per Share vs Current Share Price(b)

$2.82 vs $1.44

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 14/11/2022 07:09

Dividend up +4% to 4.375 cents… :o)

2023 hedge prices up 8%
2024 hedge prices up 4%

[woodhawk] 11/11/2022 14:46

I've already done very well here since I switched out of APF (or ECOR as it's now called). I didn't like their cavalier attitude to divis - unlike the approach here. At least double the yield and some superb capital gains after a modicum of trading too. Onwards and upwards!