Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[gary1966] 04/1/2023 15:31

Gap on the chart at 110.30p which I am surprised didn't get filled this morning given how close we got to it. They may be starting to act as a magnet.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 04/1/2023 14:54

DEC dividends 2016 | 1.99 cents
DEC dividends 2017 | 5.44 cents
DEC dividends 2018 | 11.22 cents
DEC dividends 2019 | 13.92 cents
DEC dividends 2021 | 16.50 cents
DEC dividends 2022 | 17.125 cents
DEC dividends 2023 | 17.50 cents min tbc..? (4*.04375)

2023 hedge positions price locked in at +8%
2024 hedge positions price locked in at +3%

It would be reasonable to assume with next years hedges on 70-90% of production +, dividends will also be +..? calculated at 40% FCF, hedging will reduce to 50-70% for 2024, and 30-50% for 2025 slowly increasing price exposure..

[greygeorge] 04/1/2023 14:25

lab305 - With your 600,000+ share holding, you should definitely contact Investor Relations direct to register your disgust at the share price. I mean, only three of the seven company directors have share holdings greater then yours. Your views would be of interest to the company, I'm sure. Much better than sitting on the sidelines, whining endlessly.

[greygeorge] 04/1/2023 13:57

clive7878 - There's many factors to the rise and fall of share price in any particular company. One of the factors for DEC for example is the unexploited land they hold where their wells are located. They've drilled some exploration wells, and have found more resources, but it's only economical to exploit those when gas is selling at a certain price. So, I imagine that falling gas prices affects the value of not only proven resources in the DEC portfolio, but also potential resources that would only produce a profit and be worthwhile drilling when the price is higher. It's not all about MMs and hedge funds conspiring to steal the little mans' money - Not always, anyway, lol.

[clive7878] 04/1/2023 13:35

lab305 - 15% dividend Assuming they don't cut the dividend !
Would have paid to have sold out at 135, and then bought back in again.
As the drop in share price more than cancels out paid since then.

Never understand the market makers
There is the same buy / sells and the share price has fallen,
What is their ploy - so that investors sell up when their stock hits their stop loss price and sells,
then the MM can buy cheap -
and then others investors buy dear when they push the price back up ?
There is madness to their pricing.

[greygeorge] 04/1/2023 13:32

lab305, you were a fanboy of Carillion. Shortly after you posted this, in March 2017, the company was discovered to be cooking the books (rumours were rife about the deception the board of directors were carrying out in their accounting methods, you chose to ignore, or were truly ignorant of that though, it seems), and went into liquidation. Maybe you should sit down and shut up about things you know nothing of. Out of interest, how many £100 of thousands did you lose on this beauty ?
'...Most are missing the point here. This is still a good business with a strong order book making decent profit. It is well run and hasn't hit the problems of its peers and yet the share price has been decimated. The dividend which many on here now speculate is unsustainable is covered around 1.8 times.
A PE of 12 to 15 would be the norm of a company with the above criteria but this one trades at around 7. The share price has collapsed 30%. Why is this? There has been no profit warning and the company continues to win contracts.
Sure the order book is down around 5% and so was profit after exceptionals but does that really justify the slaughter of the SP?
Many detractors on here both old and newly converted continually harp on about debt but as recently proven the company continues to borrow at even cheaper rates than before and has acknowledged that it will reduce debt going forward.
My point is that we are at crisis price but not in a crisis situation. The company is not in meltdown but the shares are. I continue to hold...'

[skinny] 04/1/2023 11:34

Exactly!

Pick a price just above the 12 month high..........

I assume the tumbling gas price is having some effect.

[woodhawk] 04/1/2023 11:07

fordtin,

No reason. I don't pay much attention to analysts - hence 'FWIW'. They're just as fallible as anyone else - and may well have their own agenda anyway.

[1knocker] 04/1/2023 10:58

llb I was lucky. I got in here when the shares were in the 80s, though I was sceptical at first and started with a relatively modest holding. I can't recall who or what orriginally put me on to DEC. COP jamborees and a couple of 'hatchet jobs' over the years then provided good top up opportunities!

I have long suspected that if the dividend was lower the share price might actually be higher! The accounting conventions make the accounts look dire (and pretty impenetrable too), leading I think to many putting DEC into the 'too good to be true' category. Personally, I think peeps with small brains like me should not make their brains hurt trying to make sense of the bottom line, but just keep an eye on the free cash flow. This is a share par excellance where you have to trust the management. Anyone who does not should not be invested here. So far, I am more than satisfied.

[fordtin] 04/1/2023 10:48

Morning Woodhawk.

Did Jeffries give a reason why they think their previous assesment was wrong?

[woodhawk] 04/1/2023 09:58

IG Index honour the W8-BEN, iWEB (Halifax) don't.

................

FWIW Jefferies cuts Diversified Energy price target to 145 (165) pence - 'buy'

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 04/1/2023 09:24

#1knocker, IMPs received and DEC in the pot at 111p for free, funny how a day or 2 delay on dividends landing can sometimes work in your favour for the next buys, my average is not quite as good as yours but as an income share with well protected hedged earnings, mustn't grumble.. :o)

ECOR, still in there yes and a well covered 7 pence a year, but as the PF gets built out and debt winds off the CEO has indicated that dividends will increase..

Does anyone know if a W8-BEN is read across different platforms..? I have 1 in with IB which is US based but struggling to get any UK bank to pass on the 15% offset..

[lab305] 04/1/2023 08:52

Well the strategy isn't doing the share price much good is it ? What happened to the share buyback scheme ? A 28 day wonder . The excuse given by some is because the pound has strengthened . True from 1.08 to 1.20ish or about 11.5%. The share price however has weakened from 129 to 112 or 13% so no excuse.
Like several others here this is also my largest holding at just under 600k shares . I was happy just five months ago when they were 144p as they had finally broken a four year malaise . However as others point out the dividend compensates but I do not accept the the share price should not increase.

[greygeorge] 03/1/2023 23:34

1knocker, I have to admit, I've always been sceptical of oil and gas companies. I remember a few years ago, laughing at 'Afren' fanboys and girls who were rabid about the prospects for that company. Allegedly, Afren had some magic oil wells that could produce oil at a price far lower than any of their competitors. Of course, they tore into anyone who pointed out to them that there was no 'magic oil' production. It wasn't just Afren I've seen come and go, but that was the most fun to see mugs lose their money.

About 18 months or so ago, I came across this board, and one of the first posts I read was from lab305, bemoaning the hedging strategy, and DEC management in general. Hello, I thought to myself, we have another company fleecing investors, and this poster obviously has seen the fraud they're perpetrating on these poor investors who just can't see it. Let's go take a look. I have to say, I can't find the scam. Just a poster, maybe a couple of posters, who are disappointed that the conservative management of this company hasn't fed their desire for a quick profit at the cost of a medium term liquidation of a company with a 'magic gas' formula.

So, yes, I'd be in for a few more at sub 110p.

[cassini] 03/1/2023 23:30

Looks like it's being attracted to the 109/110p level.

[greygeorge] 03/1/2023 23:20

lab305 - Whatever this means '...If the share price keeps going the way it is we will be on 15% ....how comforting !...'

I'd like to be much more positive - or negative - than you, and state that if the share price keeps going the way it is we will be on 75%....how comforting !

If only I knew what your random cascade of words actually meant. *Sigh*.

[1knocker] 03/1/2023 19:42

Yes, my IMPs divi arrived this morning from HL.

Watch HL though if yo sell ex div. I sold some Shell ex div (at £24, bought back a few days later at £23.80) but the div was pad only on the retained part of the holding - as also with a Shell ex div sale on another family account I manage. I sent a message pointing out the error and asking what was going on, and both accounts were corrected. HL did not explain how the error occurred, but said it would have been picked up by them anyway. Would it? I have no way of knowing. It is clearly safest not to rely upon HL to credit divs correctly, and to to check yourself.

Tobacco has been very resilient the last year or so. I would be inclined to wait for another US legal or regulatory threat and a decent pull back before topping up.

Are you still positive Ecora (or whatever it now calls itself)? I have had a buy limit odder in for some time at 140, but it has never quite triggered. Still hopeful though, as my last top up there was 126, after which it raced away to the 180s and then fell back. Surely the reduced div prospects warrant a dip to 140 sooner or later?

Is there a bb these days? If there is a new 'Ecora'ADVFN board, it has eluded me!

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 03/1/2023 18:22

#1knocker, the way the DXY is heading today we might well be able to top up a bit lower yet .. :o)

Has your IMPs dividend landed yet..? I am still waiting, but it might do me a favour as I was going to add here today with it and have some more for free..!

Natural gas prices might well be pulling back, but as we are largely hedged it makes little difference..

[1knocker] 03/1/2023 17:51

Here's hoping greygeorge. I am overweight here (my largest single holding), but I have put in a limit order today to buy a few more at 110. If it gets down to that price, a further top up would be irresistible.

I have held DEC for some years, and learned to relish dips. My average buying price is currently 101, so it is easier for me to take a relaxed view about the share price as my holding is still comfortably in the blue, but all holders are recouping their capital outlay at a very satisfactory rate, especially if they hold them in a SIPP as I do.

Nothing is certain in life or investing, but DEC seems a better bet than most stocks.

[lab305] 03/1/2023 15:38

If the share price keeps going the way it is we will be on 15% ....how comforting !

[greygeorge] 03/1/2023 15:22

bothdavis, more likely to hit 110 than 130 unless they announce another acquisition, in the short to medium term at least. Just forget about it for a while.

[renewed1] 03/1/2023 11:15

About 12% in a SIPP and compounding...beautiful almost a Rembrandt!!!

[rhubarbcrumble] 03/1/2023 11:12

Agree entirely LLB.

I am not looking for capital appreciation as this will only increases the IHT.

As an income producing share, this is outstanding.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 03/1/2023 10:41

#bothdavis, the share price is getting pulled along by the FX, a stronger USD results in a cheaper GBP buy price, and a stronger GBP hurts the dividend FX so swings and roundabouts, but overall a pretty flat share price taking currencies moves into consideration, an income share IMO, keep them for a decade, own them for nothing and they will should still be worth the same at the end depending on how tightly we mirror the FED on rates, but I doubt we will be far adrift in efforts to prop up the pound..

Forward hedging prices for 2023 (+8%)
Forward hedging prices for 2024 (+3%)

The DEC model will consistently return c10% which is what the company is about, new acquisitions offset retired plugged wells, as inflation pulls back we are pushing ahead in adjusted income terms..

Own them inside an ISA, we do get clobbered 15/30% US tax at source but zero UK tax on income and almost 10% net.. :o)