Distil Share Discussion Threads

[threadworm] 02/2/2018 10:47

Hi monnow - I thought as much, re. the river. I love the monnow valley. I used to occasionally visit an arts centre there. What a super part of the world to live in. I hope it will remain as unspoiled as possible. And I believe you've planted a woodland. We would get along very well, as I've vast environmental interests.

Back to DIS, yes I do make some very fair points. Although I refer back over many years, I've by no means held throughout all that time and the company doesn't owe me anything so don't sympathise for me too much! :O) What the time span, and longstanding view of the business has done however is give me a very broad perspective and familiarity - not just of this individual business but of the markets as a whole.

What I would say is that I see the same mistakes being made - including folk getting 'too close' to a company.....and of course the resident 'house experts' on numerous threads who quite often post what suits rather than having a 'cleaner' and less conflicted view of the given situation.

Rgds to you.

[a_2_b] 02/2/2018 10:25

If you go on lse he's more bullish on there

[monnow] 02/2/2018 10:10

Threadworm: You do make some fair points, I was just trying to get some balance back into what I think is becoming an overbearish cloud. I do sympathise with you, having held for so long it must have become very fustrating and I admire your tenacity for sticking with it, I am sure most people would have thrown in the towel. But the company has radically refocused since then and I do think good progress is being made. I can understand how you and Boffster perhaps feel a little less willing to play the long game in view has youve been in this share for years already. By the way my name is after the river, which runs at the bottom of my property. Loveley area to visit in the summer months.if your ever in these parts.

[berny3] 02/2/2018 09:46

TW - Let me give the data to support my argument of increasing sales - I am interested in your ability to give an opposing view -

11/08/16 RNS
Q1 Revenue 5% growth YoY; Volume 1% growth YoY (no new listings)

17/01/17 RNS
Q3 Revenue 71% growth YoY; Volume 56% growth YoY; Marketing 88% growth YoY (August 2016 announced Morrisons listing 2 lines Redleg Rum and Blackwoods Gin)

18/04/17 RNS
Q4 Revenue 23% growth YoY; Volume 25% YoY (Listing Redleg Rum Asda)

07/07/17
Q1 Revenue 61% growth YoY; Volume 81% YoY (Reflectes 136% increase in Blavod Licensed Sales - Also Easter impact)
Q4&Q1 Revenue 46% growth YoY; Volume 53% YoY

24/10/17
Q1&Q2 Revenue 22.8% growth YoY; Volume growth 41.3% YoY; Marketing growth 36.3% YoY (Q1 includes Redleg listing Asda)

16/01/18
Q3 Revenue 19% growth YoY; Volume growth 19% YoY; Marketing growth 11% YoY (No new listings)

Q1&Q2&Q3 Revenue 21% growth YoY; Volume 29% YoY; Marketing growth 23% YoY (Q1 includes Redleg listing Asda)

[threadworm] 02/2/2018 08:23

Boffster - Totally agree re. Jago's. Another missed opportunity and another brand to stagnate under the Ambler and eventually get pulled. It was good to drink too. However I bought several bottles where the content had completely solidified! They tried to re-formulate it. Relying on Shetland cream also became an issue.

Don't worry about your old posts. We're all new to it at some point or other.

Having been listed since the very early 2000's it's a fair enough question to ask specifically WHY DIS (BBV, BES) has not grown more. 25K case sales for the entire stable of drinks is pretty small beer considering how long they've been trading. If someone had told me in 2003 that in 15 years time, that is what the company would have come to achieve, and with the current portfolio standing as it does, would you have invested?

Basically, you could say it has been mismanaged.

Anyway. Have a good one.

Cheers.

[berny3] 02/2/2018 07:22

TW why get so angry and make it personal. Why bring Boff into your, I was here first statement. Take a chill pill, watch the blood pressure. Reach for the painkillers this morning and I am sure we’ll hear from you soon.

[thepopeofchillitown] 02/2/2018 07:14

Where's Haggis?

[boffster] 02/2/2018 00:22

You've just made me have a trip down memory lane, threaddy, back to when I was young and nieve, my first ever purchase of DIS (or BES as was). 700 quid's worth at 2.87p, October 2007. Bless. Not a great testament to the 'buy and hold' mantra though, eh?

I used to post some right garbage on the boards back then. Some would say, not a lot has changed. :o)

Its a pity Distil hasn't made more of a go of Jago. Being created by the man behind Bailey's, I thought it had a nice back story. Trendy bottle / label design and a fine liqueur too.

[threadworm] 01/2/2018 23:10

Just scrolled through a few old threads and refreshed the memory.

First purchased this in what must have been 2003 Berny, not THAT long after getting the admission docs and having met Mark Dorman.

First started discussing online....whooo....2004/2005 ?? Something like that. I was under a different Avatar, looong gone.

Boffster arrived on the scene circa October 2007.

You're actually a late comer here.

If you've run into someone who can stand with you toe to toe that probably because I've known about the business since before you had access to the net. Let alone heard of black vodka.

I could even tell you case figures for the best selling players extreme flavour.......or about the graphic designer who shot the cielo bottles for the annual report a decade ago.

Warmest regards.

[threadworm] 01/2/2018 22:52

ps. Maybe we can next chat when the placing arrives.....

And you can tell me all about how DIS is now sufficiently funded for a very long time and that you participated etc etc

[threadworm] 01/2/2018 22:43

And now you're paranoid. I'm not stating any truths to confuse. Deary me.

I am posting fact: Redleg, Blackwoods, Blackwoods 60%, Blackwoods Vodka, Blavod Black.

In the context of discussing case sales, it's correct to include them all, as five, because of course they would be made and cased separately. Sure, the sales will be weighted to Redleg and the regular Gin.

I could equally say that you are posting half truths to deceive also eg to keep quoting 25K case sales as if you have a 25K case sale brand. I chose not to accuse you though.....because quite frankly I'm not that desperate.

Had I wanted to deceive I would have added Jago's and Diva..and called it seven brands...but left those out because I acknowledge they are not really in the market place at present.

As for "Please tell me in Q4 this year what new listing did the company get?"

I'm looking at these figures and this statement from the RNS in January:

"Year to date sales for the nine month period April to December increased 21% in revenue and 29% in volume, with marketing investment increasing 23%"

There was added distribution within this time frame.

Phone DG for confirmation if you need it.

As for:

"The trade in question is referred to as non-immediate publication – Deferral for Large In Scale. Under exchange rules it is a large trade which does not need to be published immediately."

Yeah, I know all that. I've only been investing for 25 years.

I really just wanted the 'buy' or 'sell' opinion.

Anyway, theres a few more posts for you, so that statistically, the stock doesn't fall into the inactive and forgotten zone on advfn. That should keep you happy enough.

Any port in a rough storm, eh?

(no pun intended)

Cheerio.

[lr2] 01/2/2018 22:33

Are they first editions Berny? You might want to get them autographed. :)

[berny3] 01/2/2018 22:30

I’ll check my collection next time I am in the living room. The rest of the house is clean so I am see no reason why the staff would not clean my collection too.

[berny3] 01/2/2018 22:27

The trade in question is referred to as non-immediate publication – Deferral for Large In Scale. Under exchange rules it is a large trade which does not need to be published immediately. Highly likely a worked trade. My opinion was it is a sell hence we saw the drop.

[berny3] 01/2/2018 22:23

TW you are definitely using some truth to confuse. The majority of posters know on here there are two main brands Blackwoods Gin and Redleg. The 60% Gin and the Blackwoids vodka are on a much smaller scale. So likely 90% of the sales are those two brands. Not the 5 you are stating.

Please tell me in Q4 this year what new listing did the company get?

You seem to have an agenda to use part truth to mislead. Have fun

[threadworm] 01/2/2018 22:12

As the 'house' expert here, would you mind giving me your opinion on the late 1076844 trade?

Do you think it's a buy or a sell?

Also, have you remembered to daily dust your collection of empty DIS spirits bottles that you have arranged in your living room?

[threadworm] 01/2/2018 22:10

Anyone can see I've substantiated my thoughts and claims as much as I'm able to - they are more reasoned than most.

As you say yourself, "From my posts I have tried where I can to provide analysis and share my thoughts and calculations. They may well be wrong as a lot of assumptions have to be used."

Right, so I really don't see what your issue is.

You have failed to address:

The difference in January reporting time frames.

The fact that the 25K case sales (which really is not a very impressive amount for a drinks company that floated in 2003 - 15 YEARS ago) represents all 5 brands. So I'm right, each brands % growth needs to be seen within the context of coming off a low base.

My arguments as to why I feel DIS will raise.

With regards to the arguments re. Q4 2017 % sales increase being ahead or behind last years (after pipeline orders removed) you need to know the value of the pipeline. Neither of us know that. But looking at the figures, I don't think the pipeline orders were as big as you think they are....meaning that whilst sales have continued to increase, they have done so at a slower rate.

Given that neither of us know the exact figs for last year, that's a reasonable assumption.

As for your closing statement:

"As I said before you know nothing about me nor do I know anything about you. Have fun and hope you find something you like and want to invest in. Life is for enjoying."

Kind of shaking my head in bemused astonishment. I've never asked to know anything about you??

[berny3] 01/2/2018 21:46

TW you are a strange Fish. Take discussions are over then. Your justification for your comments on decling sales are that I can’t prove they are climbing either. That is a shame as I was hoping you would add substance. Equally in terms of a equity raise this is based on the fact we can’t prove there won’t be one.

From my posts I have tried where I can to provide analysis and share my thoughts and calculations. They may well be wrong as a lot of assumptions have to be used. As I said before you know nothing about me nor do I know anything about you. Have fun and hope you find something you like and want to invest in. Life is for enjoying.

[suneday] 01/2/2018 20:18

Anybody in a position to write up the results for this year and next, and a share price along with it? And what colour shoes does the Don wear, by the way. I've got him down for brown brogues.

[threadworm] 01/2/2018 20:06

"The US market is one very difficult market to break. But the company is profitable why would they risk everything on breaking that market?"

They might build a profitable company in the UK. However, given the nature of the business and the market they operate in, which is very much subject to change and swings in fashion it does not necessarily follow they'll remain profitable....at least not without increased investment to remain on trend and relevant.

International expansion, whilst potentially costly can help mitigate risk and put 'legs on the table' as fashions and swings in drinking habits are actually more localised than one might think.....not to mention the nuances of the regional / international economy.

There is also the risk that they may not reach critical mass in one market alone and on a small stable of drinks; if that domestic market was to cool off and that's all they've got, the table falls over. After all, the intention is to grow, is it not?

I don't know, go and ask Don Goulding why he wants to expand into the U.S. if the UK is breaking even, or as you hope, making a profit of 80K.

Whilst you're at it ask him if he's still on mid tan kiwi shoe polish for the foreseeable future and then update your relevant file.

[threadworm] 01/2/2018 19:56

"At no time no matter how much you say have you provided any factual evidence to support your comments on this."

Nor have you.

Quote:

"I think growth is ahead of same period last taking into account inventory fill."

You 'think'. You do not 'know'.

Neither of us know the exact pipefill numbers from the period before. You are asking me to categorically prove something whilst it's apparently ok for you to only speculate.

RNS 16th January 2016

Year-on-year third quarter (Oct-Dec 2016) revenues climbed by 71%, volumes grew by 56% and brand marketing investment increased by 88%.

RNS 17th January 2017

Year to date sales for the nine month period April to December increased 21% in revenue and 29% in volume

So, It's interesting and actually rather odd, isn't it, that in the two corresponding January trading updates they've chosen to compare a 9 month period (just passed) with a 3 month period from before.

If you think the pipeline fill last year was THAT significant, that's up to you.

And likewise, if you don't feel there was any pipefill in the period just passed, that's up to you (even though DIS did obtain further distribution in the period.

Like I say, growth has increased but imo at a slower rate.


And back to your beloved case sales...

25K cases - this is for the entire portfolio - something you seem keen not to acknowledge. Therefore each brand (FIVE) is still growing off a small base.

I think the company was shifting c. 25K - 30k cases with Ambler in the distant past the time I was having a chat with him.

France good for rum? Sure. But after the UK Spain is best for Gin and DIS has been in that market for a little while.

Anyway, there is a lot in my original post, particularly concerning a potential fundraising, for you to think on. I have fully conceded cash is being used prudently.....but they will need more imo.

[boffster] 01/2/2018 19:35

Distil could take a leaf out of Brewdog's book with its 'Equity for Punks' scheme (or 'Equity for Mugs' as I prefer to call it). If you're unaware, Brewdog tends to raise money via crowdfunding schemes, its 'investors' buy shares which are, in my view, at a preposterous valuation, (I don't think many of its 'investors' concern themselves with little details like turnover or how many shares are in issue) I believe they are popular gifts and the like, there are various perks to be had if a certain number of shares are bought, but in my view there is no chance of these 'investors' ever realising a meaningful return on their 'investment'

Perhaps Distil could split out RedLeg into a separate entity and then raise wads of cash in a similar manner whilst giving away hardly any of the equity.

[berny3] 01/2/2018 19:29

Brilliant TW and good dialogue. Covering your points

You have provided no evidence on your statement from declining growth. I think growth is ahead of same period last taking into account inventory fill. Importantly there were no material new stockiest over the period. We can agree to disagree on this point. However, it would is wrong to state that there is declining growth rate when you are unable to support it. At no time no matter how much you say have you provided any factual evidence to support your comments on this.

2) my estimate is finger in the air. £6 per bottle revenue is a guess based on sale price, tax, etc. 25,000 case sales if true is significant especially in majority one market. UK. 25,000 cases is 820 bottles a day everyday of the year in UK. That is significant.

This discussion is great and no willy wagging about being long in the tooth or being switched on. I have no idea about your background and neither do you about I. Who knows who would win that contest. What is important is we both have opposing views and it is good to share. I disagree about fund raising as I feel prudent financial management is why the company is so well supported by large investors. The Us market entry is only one market. How do you know they are not looking at entry into France ( France has the highest Rum consumption per head in Europe). The company is profitable in the UK alone (evidence end of this financial year hopefully) The US market is one very difficult market to break. But the company is profitable why would they risk everything on breaking that market? It would be far better to get in place TTB approvals a distribution agreement of good sorts and have a solid profitable business in the UK. That position is sweet for a larger player to take to the next phase. The game is tough I agree. I am vested in the company and enjoy its brands and it’s under dog position. Keep the discussion up as it is good. No getting personal though.