Distil Share Discussion Threads

[berny3] 01/2/2018 16:38

TW I think discussion is great but you are unable to support any of your claims with fact.

Show me the numbers to support your arguments and I will listen.

You are genuinely switched on are you. Excellent.

Come on engage show me the figures to support your arguments.

[boffster] 01/2/2018 16:36

Cash at 31 Mar 2017 - £910k

Cash at 30 Sep 2017 - £690k

That is all you need to see, really, to at least consider the possibility of a cash call in the none too distant.

If the company manages to turn a profit this year (I do expect it will) and with recent growth having not been quite as stellar, working capital requirements might have eased off a bit. But a few hundred k ain't gonna be enough for any push into a new market, in my opinion.

[berny3] 01/2/2018 16:34

Semantics?? Not concerned with presupposition just fact supported arguments rather than not supported.

"Either way funds will be required" quite a flippant statement when you have nothing to support it.

[berny3] 01/2/2018 16:29

TW - At least you agree that growth is increasing now. We are getting somewhere with this...lol

Please can you clarify why the growth rate is at a decreasing rate. What rate was it without inventory fill before.

25K cases sales - 12 bottles in a case estimate £6 revenue per bottle to company. Estimated revenue circa £2,000,000

12*6 = £72 per case

2,000,000/72 = 27,777 cases

[threadworm] 01/2/2018 16:27

Berny - ok. Semantics.

"The funds raised will ensure that we can establish a good presence in this and other international markets and also continue our new brand development work."

Either way, funds will be needed. Brand development. Support. Working capital.

[berny3] 01/2/2018 16:22

TW that quote says nothing about a wedge being needed to get into the US.

It was for working capital.


The funds raised will ensure that we can establish a good presence in this and other international markets and also continue our new brand development work.

As stated in our previous posts growth rates are extremely good at 21% without inventory fill. The Redleg Brand is stronger, Blackwoods Gin sales have increased as per described in the last set of accounts. Redleg has achieved TTB approval since that raise.

You sound a bit like Chinese Investor (sorry to bring you into this)every time the price goes up he posts guess what the price is going up.

[berny3] 01/2/2018 16:15

TW you are making statements that are not supported with evidence.

[berny3] 01/2/2018 16:14

TW you keep throwing statements out there growth is declining with no evidence to support.

Show us how you arrive at that.

Similarly show me that 25,000 case sales is a small base.

(that is 300,000 bottles, that is 821 bottles sold everyday of the year - small base?)

[threadworm] 01/2/2018 16:13

It's fine. We disagree about an impending cash call.

We'll see.

[berny3] 01/2/2018 16:11

TW kantar is a very good place for information on growth. The Spirits Business is also extremely informative.

The Spirits business and drinks business as a whole is very interesting, worth while going to a few events to get an understanding of the industry. Especially how you break into the industry, struggles new drinks businesses have.

It is fascinating to find out the different business stages in a business.

Normally I would apply the 80/20 rule. What you think is needed to run the business and get a product to market makes up about 20% of what is really required. 80% of the business running you don't understand and have never thought of.

[threadworm] 01/2/2018 16:06

20% growth is good but the rate of growth has declined.

[berny3] 01/2/2018 16:04

Clarify this point - you are making this up too.

"Concerning needing a wedge. It's easy to clarify. See Don Goulding's quote highlighted. in Boffster's post."

[berny3] 01/2/2018 16:03

TW YoY figures have not fallen back - you are making that up surely - prove that claim.

[berny3] 01/2/2018 16:02

TW - Growth rate @ 21% is extremely good. I can not fathom where you are coming up with it declining when has it been higher without inventory fill from new listings?

I think your comments contain a mass of assumptions and you are jabbing fingers at something you are not totally up to speed with.

Anyway you are not a holder but have a strong interest on telling people negative things but with no factual support for your argument.

I would be interested in your points if you could provide factual support

[berny3] 01/2/2018 15:52

TW when you say it is growing off a very small base. That is not entirely true - by estimates we are likely to be around 25,000 cases (12 bottle). That is not a small base.

[berny3] 01/2/2018 15:50

Agreed DC

TW I think you miss the point of a discussion and see it as an attack. It is not.

Concerning needing a wedge to enter the US market. Can you clarify that?

You state that you have been a business owner (I assume from your post.) Have you had experience of trading in the US?

[threadworm] 01/2/2018 15:47

Yes dietcoke197. As a percentage growth rate it's good for any brand of drink....but it does represent a fall. What I'm arguing is that, not withstanding the strong pipe fill in the corresponding period, what you really want to see at this stage is the brand continue to surge. REMEMBER....it's growing off a very small base.

With regards a fundraising. This is not necessarily a bad thing. Money can be raised for good or bad reasons. Shareholders should expect a cash call here if they want to see the brands properly supported (particularly redleg) at a crucial time in the brands development.

And if you want the US, you can't do it with £500k in the bank.

Let's respect each other's views and not skew words.

Some think no placing will come.

I say there will be one - probably within the next 3 months or so.

We will all find out.

[threadworm] 01/2/2018 15:32

Buoycat - a fair post. Although personally I make no comparison of Fever Tree to DIS as a business (I expect different things) only that Fever Tree have a good blend of youth/energy and wisdom at BOD level. I should know, I've met them. It can be a potent combination in business.

What I would add is, had DIS been very, very well managed originally, it COULD have grown like fever tree.....but it didn't, did it?

Remember Ambler only gave Blavod it's own website after several years and even that was shockingly bad. And forget any social media presence. All in all very lazy. It's a shame because DIS continues to carry some of that legacy........even though I would admit it's in better hands now....as I've previously said.

[threadworm] 01/2/2018 15:30

Monnow - with regards the chart. The topic of entry level / prices had been mentioned in a previous chat.....including Bernie's approach of buying the dips. My response was to highlight the overall trend which some may have become blind to, perhaps out of choice.

On a different note, if you're named after the river, I salute you.

[threadworm] 01/2/2018 15:28

Monnow. You are citing figures from an historic period. I agree THEY were encouraging.

The company has announced sales figures since then.

THOSE are the ones we are presently considering.

[threadworm] 01/2/2018 15:25

...Hi Berny3,

I think you've misunderstood or skewed a few of the points I had made...

Very quickly...

I am not triumphing youth OVER wisdom and experience....and I think you know that. I made the point that youth added to the current team at DIS would not be unwelcome. I have stated on two occasions the value of having senior personel on board - and I include DG in that.

"businesses that have people working through the night to make things happen usually have demotivated staff, under resourced and run into the buffers."

Again, you miss the point. I was making the analogy and comparison to someone who was running his own business and launching his own venture (not flogging staff 24-7 - again I think you understand the point I was making). When someone is running their own show, in such instances the motivation and commitment can be unstoppable. I should know. I was 'there'.

With regards to % decreases in sales for the last two quarters, sales are still increasing - yes - but at the last count(s) at slower % rates. You will note before I have already acknowledged that the corresponding periods included strong pipe/order fill. Notwithstanding that, at this stage of a brands life (redleg), you really do want very firm figures and ideally see the brand continue to surge (as it had originally done). I say that with particular reference to the fact that over the last 10 months, regleg has enjoyed vastly increased distribution. Therefore, personally I would have liked to see sales in Q3 stronger than they were....and again...not withstanding the strong pipeline figures of the corresponding period.

"Your views on a placing confuse me. The company has a positive cash position and has not been exuberant on marketing spend in the past and still achieves substantial organic growth."

Yes, it's cash positive......but you don't allow a firm to run cash negative before conducting a fund-raising. You are correct, under DG marketing spend has not been huge, but in order to support the brands in the UK (and maintain momentum) marketing spend will (and should) increase at this point. Also, you can not plan to enter the US successfully without a good wedge behind you. Evidence of this has already been provided by boffster who quoted directly from DG himself in an RNS of 2 years ago where he cited the reason for a past fundrasing - and that was to aid a successful foray into the U.S.

"If your theory is that you need a young, inexperienced, spendthrift employee to achieve success I beg to differ."

Patently this is not what I'm suggesting.

All in all rather disappointing! You are beginning sound like someone who will skew reasoned debate after all.