Distil Share Discussion Threads

[texas_caddy] 31/1/2018 13:38

Boffster,

You really are boring with the ASDA thing!

You've said you are not a holder and have this in your "avoid with a bargepole" pile - so why then do you spend so much time and energy here? Have you nothing better to do with your time?

I do not currently hold but keeping an eye with interest for future developments as may buy back in again.

[berny3] 31/1/2018 13:29

Boff

1)I disagree that growth is stagnating. It is my opinion that it is still healthy and growing. Your Asda issues I am not too sure about. Personally I would not use your issues with Asda as a guide for my strategy. I am sure you respect that :)

2) I disagree - you can never rule that out but that would not fit with the current strategy and financial prudence.

3) Each to their own on this only time will tell.

4)In my opinion Mr Goulding is a shroud wise old dog and I would not right him off for his age. He has a significant vested interest to get the share price up as that would be a big contributor to his pension.

My answers to each of your points are discussion issues rather than trying to sway your opinion which I respect. Equally your points are the same and require consideration but I am confident I can answer each of your points with what I have looked at.

The holding by the fund is significant and it is a very shroud manager behind that fund. Lets see where we are this time next year. We were 1.6 last year and now are 1.875. You did well if you bought in and sold out at the top, but I have never known anybody to always be able to achieve perfect market timing.

I do not disagree the entry into the US market has been a longtime, but getting recipes, bottle shape and sizes (US bottling is different than UK bottling and requires a separate run), label design through TTB can be quite a headache and a long drawn out affair. Then you move to distribution and due to the size of the US and different laws and licensing in each State it can be tough to get ahead in the game. Always it is better to take the time to get it right rather than rush and get it wrong and need to start a new campaign.

By my figures we have a potential profit of circa £100K; contribution of £634K - on that basis alone the company should be valued circa £15mln - but that is my own figures and assessment of value.

[boffster] 31/1/2018 12:46

Here's what stops me investing here, in a nutshell:-

1) Without expansion into other markets, I feel that growth will stagnate. There are signs of this already. I know I keep banging on about it, but until recently I could order RedLeg at ASDA.com, and now I can't, its hardly encouraging.

2) I believe another placing is on the way and I believe this will need to be at a discount to the prevailing shareprice. Previous subscribers are likely to question why the company has failed to breach the US market despite this being promised 3 years ago.

3) Really not keen on the Blackwoods redesign, looks like something Granny Grimble would keep in the pantry - not appealing to the youth market at all in my view.

4) I've gone off the management, big time. At 63 years old I suspect DG is quite happy just sitting at the helm of this cushy £150k/pa number into retirement. Company needs someone a bit younger and more ambitious at the helm in my opinion.

[buoycat] 30/1/2018 14:12

I like the bottle, much to my surprise. The old bottle was classy but staid whilst the new bottle is quite exotic and certainly distinctive and perhaps better to hold too. The label is a bit disappointing but I look at Goose Island or Innis and Gunn beers. They've both recently changed their labels from something I thought was far classier so maybe I'm missing something. It certainly hasn't stopped me buying the beers. Brand loyalty and the quality of what's inside is what's important I guess.

[boffster] 30/1/2018 11:52

No 'nasty surprises' here since I am neither long nor short. I do not revel in seeing others lose money when I don't, nor resent those who make money when I don't.

[acdc52] 30/1/2018 10:48

Dear little Rats, soon you doom and gloom rats will get a nasty surprise. Regards Big Cat

[berny3] 30/1/2018 07:32

Boff/TW a good article on Gin.



This demonstrates how hard it is to break into the Gin market. - It is very easy to obtain base Gin add some tea leaves and hey presto my own Gin. I do not disagree with your points about Shetland Gin - but a lot more has been done with the Gin since it was sold. It is worth looking at the amount of deb the old company (pre Distil buy) had got into. It is one thing having an idea it is another making a successful business out of it. It was not a successful business prior to Distil buying it.

I am not expert in marketing or the spirits market but the Gin market requires something to stand out - I think the bottle does that. The attachment to the 1920's is another item which we are yet to see how that comes to fruition. As with all things being negative is a lot easier than looking for the positives. Both of you may feel that the price may drift. But you are both obviously still interested in the company. In my opinion and experience picking bottoms only does one thing - give you smelly fingers. Hence my strategy to accumulate as I feel the price is below my expectations. GL and again great work on bringing the thread back to sensible discussion.

[boffster] 30/1/2018 00:10

Talking about energy, or lack thereof, try watching the video in the header if you're struggling to sleep one night. I guarantee you'll be fast on before you're half way through listening to Don drone on.

[boffster] 30/1/2018 00:06

So what you're after then, acdc, is a bulletin board with nothing but holders egging each other on, since, logically, there is no such thing as a bearish shareholder? Why not log off and talk to yourself if that's what you want? Recent movements in the share price would tend to validate negative statements, would they not?

Threadworm's post is worth the read. I would echo his sentiment regards the loss of the Shetland identity with the Blackwood's product. It would surely have resonated well with many in the US who have an affinity for all things Gaelic. It's also a pity that the drink is not actually produced in Scotland.

[acdc52] 29/1/2018 23:23

Dear Rats: your opinions are worthless if you are not on board (i.e. you don't hold any shares) regardless of number of years you are around. Please refrain from pointless negative lengthy statements. Regards Big Cat

[threadworm] 29/1/2018 23:21

Indeed, agreed.

You raise an interesting point about TTB approval....:

In some respects, although once unique and interesting in the market place (ie a 'vintage' gin) one must also consider if the brand is somehow flawed by design.

If the formulation has to change, say, every 4 - 6 years....would this affect future TTB hurdles I wonder?

Also, I wonder if it's ideal to have to effectively re-market or re-brand (lite) every 4-6 years. In some respects it could work in that the brand has the ability to re-invent and remain 'relevant' and attain press attention when it does so. On the other hand, you could see it as a burden: a brand that requires expenditure, R&D and fresh waves of promotion.

The best brands win the war, not the battle in that they have something that stands the test of time and are just 'right'. In that respect, those brands are not high maintenance.

Unless news comes, I think there will be a retrace here. Perhaps not significant but certainly some drift. Currently in a downwards channel.

H1 2018 - the quieter period is just as interesting to view as Q4....because if the company performs well then it should be a bullish signal for the rest of the year. But likewise if slippage in H1 I think, will probably equate to slippage in H2 / Q4. It should be noted that the two often relate and are reflective of each other in terms of % increases or decreases. Even if a higher amount of revenue is achieved in H2.

[berny3] 29/1/2018 22:58

TW - good dialogue. I think Q4 2017 is more representative of organic growth as this is the most competitive time of consumption. I do think there is too much focus on a brand sale rather than a growing company. My views are on a growing company.

Note the quantity of shares under options and warrants for directors. That is a strong incentive to create shareholder value.

The delay in the US may have many reasons. The launch of the new gin may be a key part. Bare in mind that a new Gin recipe, bottle and label will need TTB approval before it can be distributed in the US. Distributing all the brands together is the strategy we have been told that is being followed. Analysis of this strategy is beyond my knowledge, however I have trust that the company knows what it is doing in this and am comfortable to see the results before judgement.

I think the most recent dialogue is healthy and opposing views is a great way of broadening the discussion base and giving people more to think about and research.

[threadworm] 29/1/2018 22:14

I know that Boffster and Berny have a long term window into this company.

Personally I had sight of the admission document and first met Ambler in the early 2000's

Since then I have met with senior management at Fever Tree.

In my view, the company was very poorly run, for a long time, under the old CEO. It's in better hands now. But the market is that much more competitive.

My biggest concerns are for brand stagnation owing to energy and imagination at the top whilst other, better brands outcompete. And I definitely include 'newcomers' as a key part of that threat.

Remember if you are bringing a brand to market and it's your baby, you will work night and day to make it happen. Good brands with mileage or a story get bought out on smaller sales delivery than DIS current stable. Simply pushing a brand to attain a certain sales threshold 'X' is not enough to trigger predatory interest. The brand needs something special and with a long term appeal / projection.

This is a point well worth remembering.

[threadworm] 29/1/2018 22:04

Berny - post 4739 - good post. A bit of quality reasoned thinking. I know you've been around the stock for a long time.

It is indeed a nuanced situation.

[threadworm] 29/1/2018 21:28

I suggest the more enthusiastic of you pay heed to the likes of Boffster, at least in part, to balance the debate somewhat. What matters is making money, not to attain long term holder status or indeed anything to the contrary. One position is not more righteous than the other. Get too close to any given company (or become too 'loyal' beyond sense) and it will cost you. Calling the CEO by a slang version of his first name, as if you’re pals, is such a sign.

The Gin - increased distribution - very good news. But note Blackwood's is, partially, rebuilding a sales base which it once had..........and lost! I used to buy it regularly in Sainsbury's a long time ago (the first vintage). I was drinking it before Richard Ambler began wrestling with the fire sale/purchase from the Shetland Spirits co, which in retrospect was a more expensive deal than many of you will probably know, fresh to the company as you are.

The new bottle design is not to my taste....but as I posted several days ago, it might be designed primarily for the US market(?) Still, it's a shame to see that brand come almost completely adrift from it's original weather-ravished Shetland / Norse identity. As I said, viking ship logo; nautical bottle shape; cork stopper.....AND....supported by an original (non-blavod) website that was Shetland-image-rich and very much talked of a place and ethos. It had a spark.

Indeed, I believe the brand HAD a stronger identity back then. The old (Shetland Spirits) website and ‘story’ therein would have indeed chimed very nicely with today’s vogue for all things ‘local’, ‘small batch'......with an increasing bent towards the 'natural'. This is where the aspirational money is currently going, and so the knock on effect filters down. It was a John Lewis / Waitrose brand if I ever saw one.

It was also very ‘un-corporate’. Often, successful brands are those which have corporate clout behind them, yet have a very personal and small batch public ‘front’. Think ‘innocent̵7; before they got huge.....

Sadly, these days, the gin seems to celebrate little of that original identity. A crying shame considering the American's would have probably bought into a strong Scottish / Shetland theme.

All in all it was a breath of fresh air on the Gin circuit. It just needed more cash behind it and properly managing but less emotionally attached personel - but under Ambler, it didn't get that. A young, exciting and spirited brand fell into the hands of the flat and unimaginative. A great pity. You could say it went too far the other way.

I do believe it’s still a good gin and very nice to drink - I think Don Goulding has the right mindset in getting the liquid ‘right’ so that it’s a genuinely premium product, but something has definitely been lost.

The launch of Redleg (and it's subsequent promotion) has been an altogether better example of 'how to do it' and so it's a shame Blackwood's didn't receive a similar treatment.

Boffster's excellent post highlighting how looong it has been since the company announced it's US ambitions for the brand (and the money that was initially fundraised specifically for it) should be looked at with interest by ALL investors. Particularly those who berate anyone who suggests DIS will want to raise more money..............because you know what?? They will. I think the money will be used pretty well and with discretion under Don Goulding but anyone denying you don’t need a serious wedge behind you to enter the US or even to properly support growing brands domestically, are, quite frankly, deluded.

The new website for Blackwood's is dreadful. Sorry, someone had to say it.

We have web designers in the family and I have seen better 'off the peg' websites for little to no money.

Hardly worth waiting for, was it?

It's dull, dull, dull. Poor graphically. Poor presentation. The Shetland identity (which, as I've said was a nice selling point) is all but gone.

The message is also somewhat mixed. On one hand DIS state:

" Each vintage is subtly different, the flavour being determined by the availability of our handpicked Shetland botanicals."

Excellent. No problem with that. However, a breath later, Dis state:

"In order to create great tasting products and perfect our spirits, we have worked closely with our master distiller as well as leading bartenders, ensuring that our latest vintage reflects the trends of the moment in bars around the world."

This is a somewhat confused, conflicted, marketing message.

Redleg has been reasonably well promoted what with the pop-up bars. But it really needs to be concluding it's next wave of promotional activity NOW - something new, different, on-trend. It takes imagination, persistence and energy (ENERGY! ENERGY! ENERGY!) to build a successful brand. There are waves of young, talented, graduates entering the business world each year with many ideas - including many food and drinks ideas. Running a successful pop-up shack at a handful of festivals for a few more years will not cut it I'm afraid. So, where are the plans?

This is why the company will need more cash. Because promotion, the ideas behind promotion and the active execution requires money.

You’ll all be paying for that, so you better feel confident about the brands and take an interest in how they’re performing.....and not palm away any criticism about reducing growth.

The decreasing YOY period sales should not be ignored but looked at & discussed openly. Sure they're vs an especially strong corresponding stocking period but this in itself should not necessarily be enough to assuage any other doubts. Personally I thought the most recent trading figures disappointing and, given Redleg’s vastly improved distribution over the past year, I had expected much more.

The growth of the rum, as a percentage, is impressive when compared to the sector benchmark......but for a very young brand growing from a very small base, the percentage growth has to been seen IN CONTEXT and for what it is. There is no doubt that it has inspired a bit of imagination in the market and has something approaching a foothold. But it’s a tiny, tiny brand (a knat on the back of an elephant, to quote Don Goulding himself) but the challenge for DIS is to now maintain that energy and momentum in the market place and to continue to effectively engage and excite it's target market. This is a new challenge for redleg and in a highly competitive space, it’s nothing is a given.

All that said the company is in better shape than has been for a long time and should benefit from a ‘stocking tonic’ with regards to the increased UK distribution for the Gin. But as I've previously posted it's uncertain as to whether these figures will fall in Q4 or Q1 2018.

The US distribution deal may or may not have the effect of supporting the share price (it all depends upon what is agreed) but this news is already heavily, heavily delayed .... to the extent that one begins to wonder why nothing has been secured to date.

A vacuum in news flow may occur and with the strongest quarter’s figures all but out combined with and a quieter period ahead I can now see the share price retracing a little. This is not a so called ‘de-ramp’; but an honest opinion, supported by argument.

From a shareholders perspective, it's therefore crucial that H1 2018 shows continued momentum.

The brands must now maintain their foothold.

Blackwood’s is on a second chance. Personally I think it’s weaker than before and less differentiated…;.but I accept that’s just my view and acknowledge others will think differently and like the fresh rebranding.

Jago’s and Diva were also redeveloped but have seen no action in the market place. Whilst I do not disagree with the approach of concentrating on the other hotter brands first, it’s disappointing that funds were channelled into their development and then failed to relaunch.

H1 2018 is key…….and any initial stocking order in that period must be taken into account (ie subtracted) in order to get a realistic idea of the underlying organic growth for the period.

All in my opinion only. ADYOR.

[acdc52] 29/1/2018 20:45

You wish. Ship Distil will never sink as long as I am on board and captain Don Goulding is guiding it.

[threadworm] 29/1/2018 20:44

Boffster, I'm not looking to goad, but instead looking for reasoned debate.

(It was a nonsensical comment, we know that, esp. given the shares have slumped a little). The kindest thing I can do is filter and look for a better exchange.

Will post some thoughts later...

[boffster] 29/1/2018 20:37

"Its too late to get on board now" said the Captain of the Titanic as she sailed out from Southampton..

[acdc52] 29/1/2018 20:32

Rats beware, big cat is about.

[threadworm] 29/1/2018 18:02

acdc5229 Jan '18 - 17:01 - 4747 of 4749 (Filtered)

[threadworm] 29/1/2018 18:01

Happy to discuss DIS with anyone who has more than a one-speed-setting (and who is over the age of 17).

[threadworm] 29/1/2018 17:56

Chr*st, you're boring.

You actually do your fellow (and more intelligent) bulls a disservice.

[berny3] 29/1/2018 16:03

the pictures on Amazon give the bottle a better view, especially in comparison to the old bottle. Look at it again Boff - I like it I think it looks more distinguished - but beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

It is like Ispy who can spot the first bottle on the shelves? Who can provide us the first taste test?