Direct Line Insurance Share Discussion Threads

[deanowls] 22/12/2023 05:07

I’m now selling Aviva as Jason is obviously high risk and they have miss priced his policy.

Sticking it in DLG as they will have less losses.

😄 😉

[wba1] 21/12/2023 13:34

Jason29; as an underwriting director I adjusted my uw footprint on a regular basis. This meant that some risks I had previously wanted were no longer within my targets and saw big rate increases (as an alternative to red lining). It does look bad to the customers involved but means nothing in terms of the position of the overall book. Some customers will also see big increases due to change of circumstance, the obvious being claims since last renewal. But these changes are not always as obvious and something like a deterioration in credit rating can result in a large rate increase. So whilst I do not doubt DLG are pushing rates to return to target profitability, the extent of the increases and market position of the overall account cannot be judged from individual cases.

[jason29] 19/12/2023 16:45

Will buy back in if they go below 150 again for sure. Good Luck to everyone who continue to hold.

[jason29] 19/12/2023 16:42

As a Share Holder who has just received 3 ridiculous Car Renewal Quotations I'm not convinced they have the right Balance at the moment around writing business. Managed to halve every one of them with Aviva. I'm sure I'm not alone and will be selling the Shares tomorrow as they have been on a decent run and I'm not sure it's justified. Just IMO. Maybe they are making money elsewhere, but if nobody renews a Policy it may be short lived.

[wba1] 08/12/2023 22:27

The exit of More Than from the car insurance market was announced some months ago. It has re-emerged now presumably because it took until September for them to start the run off. Zurich also announced they were reducing exposure to the private motor and home sectors by focusing on HNW risks and I seem to recall a Lloyds operation pulling out as well. Others have also pulled from parts of the market (such as Covea no longer writing EVs).The reduction of capacity helps sustain rate increases but these things are cyclical and others will happily write more risks as prices return to profit. One thing I had not picked up was Admiral buying the More Than pet and home business for over £100m (and will be running off the home side, so the price is just for the pet and brand). It suggests more value in those segments of the DLG business than I had thought (and that it is undervalued in the market cap).

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 06/12/2023 17:10

#Fenners66, interesting, that has room to drive their business into our portfolio of brands and can only add to volumes.. :o)

[fenners66] 06/12/2023 17:04

More Than are exiting UK car insurance, so the loss of a trusted competitor.

[tuftymatt] 06/12/2023 16:27

Lets hope so LLB and good luck all 👍🏻

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 06/12/2023 15:00

200 pence now in clear sight.., quite a milestone after the recent lows of under 140 pence.., we should clear that bar before Xmas with a bit of a tailwind.. :o)

Onward and upward as the recovery continues, 300 pence seems a mile off on the horizon, but the catalyst will be reinstating a dividend as capital resilience is rebuilt, here is hoping we get something declared in March 2024 after our year off..?

[wba1] 01/12/2023 12:28

Hmmm. Whilst I agree with the value the DLG share price offers I wonder what they pay these analysts. Rhea Shah has no evidence for claiming above market pricing. The only thing which supports such a statement is the emergence of a COR better than the market which I expect but is not in the figures as yet. I assume she is looking at one of the price engines (not the aggregators) used by companies to track pricing. The issue with doing this is that it looks at a basket of risks (many thousands) and it means nothing that your pricing is above the market if the biggest gap is for risks you do not win. Only risks where you get the business matter. Similarly volume growth in 2024 is yet to be seen (assuming she is referring to customer numbers rather than GWP, which is already baked in).
But having had my say on idiots from banks I am happy to repeat my view that the emerging numbers at half year and Q3 do support a value over 200p. To go up to the 300p level seen so recently will require management to show they have cured their pricing and claims problems (ie replaced those responsible for under pricing and under reserving, not just filling the holes they created) rather than just riding the market recovery and have a plan in place to drive growth outside of the retail motor market.

[garycook] 30/11/2023 11:07

Yes went to 196p, and then fell back to 188p yesterday !

[tuftymatt] 30/11/2023 09:38

A very nice write up above!!

I am happy to keep adding on half decent dips but they are few and far between this month!!

Good luck all 👍🏻

[speedsgh] 30/11/2023 08:17

Deutsche Bank upgrades Direct Line

Deutsche Bank has upgraded insurer Direct Line (DLG) as ‘potholes are in the rear-view mirror’.

Analyst Rhea Shah upgraded her recommendation from ‘hold’ to ‘buy’ and increased the target price from 170p to 250p on the Citywire Elite Companies A-rated stock, which was trading at 189p on Wednesday.

‘Direct Line’s shares collapsed – down 60% - over the past three years due to weak profitability, a strained capital base, and the need for provisions,’ Shah said. ‘However, we believe this is in the rear-view mirror and that we will see evidence the group is being steered on the right path.’

She said that the dividend reinstatement in the full-year 2023 results, margin expansion from above-market pricing, and volume growth in 2024 all provide evidence of recovery.

‘This should be supported by a refreshed strategy from the incoming chief executive,’ Shah said.

‘Overall, we expect each element to provide incremental support, which should then close the valuation discount over 2024.’

The shares are trading 20% below the historic price/earnings and 55% below peer Admiral (ADM).

‘With considerable scope for re-rating, our price target of 250p provides a 30% upside potential,’ said Shah.

[dope007] 22/11/2023 12:59

From the Aviva thread

The Times
Admiral was driven up 70p after analyst at Citi double upgraded from "sell" to "buy"
Confidence spread to Direct line which added 2.9%

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 21/11/2023 14:26

The Q3 update driving the turnaround, 200 pence coming into view.. :o)

Mid January 2024 for the Q4/FY progress update, but will we see a dividend reinstated..? this will further accelerate the share price recovery..

11.01.2023 - the dynamics of 2022, and in particular the additional factors in the fourth quarter, have resulted in a capital coverage that is now expected to be at the lower end of our risk appetite range of 140% to 180%. Therefore, the Board no longer expects to pay a final dividend for the 2022 financial year.

[dope007] 21/11/2023 13:48

Looking good today going strongly against the mkt

[adejuk] 20/11/2023 16:05

it's now at resistance point. i decided i would buy back after there were signs of a breakthrough from here. not long to wait i expect

[adejuk] 20/11/2023 16:02

delighted for those who bought in the low 140's

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 18/11/2023 11:45

Strong recovery week here, 200 pence coming into view.. :o)

[swiss paul] 17/11/2023 10:41

Did anyone attend - if so what was the consensus: Buy, Sell, Avoid, Hold?

[davidosh] 13/11/2023 12:51

Direct Line will be featured on the Mello Monday show this evening on the BASH session



All welcome to join. Use this code when applying for a ticket if a shareholder SHR100

[jubberjim] 10/11/2023 15:10

Currently not paying a dividend
00
Did get some previously at 130/135 level but that was at the height of the panic and subsequently took my profit

151 20 pence up from all time low but was looking across all insurance shares

Nothing is forever in this market and in the absence of dividend news will make the best use of my resources in this and any share

Nothing is forever

[kasamavic] 09/11/2023 20:54

I was wondering why you said " good luck to those who continue to believe" as if you don't think they're worth having but you still hold them.

[jubberjim] 09/11/2023 19:10

Yes
Not too many but enough the sells today ones I bought at 150 odd few days ago

31/10 @ 150 90 to be precise




Primary holdings lgen Aviva phnx

Lloyds Barclays Nat west

Keep well( quite a few doubting Thomases about) hence clarification

[kasamavic] 09/11/2023 18:37

Are you still holding shares, it's difficult to determine what you're saying?