Digital 9 Infrastructure Share Discussion Threads

[williamcooper104] 09/2/2024 14:42

Yep only think creditors likely to do short term is help push along TP being removed, to extent that they can That's not something anyone's going to cry over

[tsmith2] 09/2/2024 14:20

Was it Capitulation around 10am?

[spoole5] 09/2/2024 13:36

Only mug retail punters keeping this alive now

[marlint111] 09/2/2024 12:46

William- you hit the nail on the head.

There is no logic to the debt holders not being accomodating- because if they take control absolutely nothing is going to change

The company is 3 months from the sale of Verne which will clear nearly all the RCF.

The lenders best shot for getting their cash back is to make sure that deal completes. Any their best way of doing that is sitting on their hands.

If DGI need more cash to see them through to that point there's then a game of chicken between the board and the debt holders.

[loglorry1] 09/2/2024 11:15

Too much reliance on NAV estimates.

Aqua Co., EBITDA evolution 2021: £16.1m, 2022: £12.8m, 2023: £9.4m (annualized H1 result). EBITDA is shrinking with 23% per year the past two year. DGI values this business to £227m. So currently 22.4x EV/EBITDA for shrinking EBITDA. The only positive is that they have invested £20-29m in the EMIC-1 cable, which is not onstream yet, so that one will add EBITDA in 2025. Can anyone estimate how much?

EDIT: I've been informed that this statement is wrong and they are bringing on more capacity this July which will result in a big jump up in EBITDA. hxxps://aquacomms.com/latest-news/aqua-comms-announces-trans-atlantic-subsea-spectrum-agreement-with-energy-sciences-network/

[alan pt] 09/2/2024 11:15

I can say with confidence that it is worth somewhere between zero and 4x the current share price. Trouble is, I have no idea which is true and neither does anyone else. Roll the dice...

[loglorry1] 09/2/2024 11:14

"are good quality valuable assets certainly worth a market cap of £500m+."

Can you lay out your reasoning for this please?

[wskill] 09/2/2024 11:04

Do hope a liquidator is brought in and TP removed far too incompetent to allow them to continue better chance of some return to shareholders as well.

[tsmith2] 09/2/2024 10:57

bought in again

[briggs1209] 09/2/2024 10:50

With a potential sale of Verne at multiples of the mcap, a buyer with enough cash to provide liquidity could snap this up.

[chopp1] 09/2/2024 10:46

Huge negativity on here today. The market cap is £131m this morning which is beyond ridiculous; the assets that they hold are good quality valuable assets certainly worth a market cap of £500m+.

[williamcooper104] 09/2/2024 10:45

Why would you buy Verne now rather than the whole fund

[loglorry1] 09/2/2024 10:45

I would hope the banks might be placated by selling other parts, a good argument that Arq is a cash cow in time, and the fact that the V sale is very close. As you say their alternative is to do the liquidation themselves which is hard work and messy so they might I suppose be happy with an interest payment bump or some warrants. Pure speculation and DGI9 still have to find the interest payments from somewhere.

Lots of ifs and buts - certainly not a no brainer.

[williamcooper104] 09/2/2024 10:41

Just thinking about the rights issue If key shareholders are clear that they won't back it then they won't be coerced by fear of dilution The banks are going to just want to see TP (or ideally someone else) do what an administrator would do, and they can't pull the plug (as far as we know) just yet So unless there's a pressing operational need for cash - eg without cash for committed capex asset values/recoveries will be impaired - then there may not be a placing But clearly that's a lot of ifs/buts - low confidence opinion

[loglorry1] 09/2/2024 10:37

I think I said months ago when the share price was 60p that it looked like it was run by a bunch of kids.

The assets look ok though. It never pays to average down into a heavily leveraged situation but I still don't think the value breaks in the debt here. Obviously I could be totally wrong. I think it makes sense to see where the dust settles and if the persistent seller is cleared before buying any more.

[williamcooper104] 09/2/2024 10:36

When you let kids play with leverage....

[williamcooper104] 09/2/2024 10:35

My fibres stop lossed out Will probably be back once my balls have recovered for another kicking

[farrugia] 09/2/2024 10:31

its a strange world.

The USA markets are trading on extreme greed - prices are getting inflated up the skies. ARM yesterday went up 50% and Cloudfare is up 25% after earnings. We are not talking about small companies in here but multi billions. Nvidia is adding like 50 billion a day. Here in the UK if we get a day where one of our holdings goes up 10% we are happy (and more often than not these gains are ceded in the subsequent days).

Meanwhile the UK feels like a major depression scenario particularly when it comes to some of those REITs. It is so bad that I don't want to keep throwing money at them. I think by March 2025 interest rates will be much lower but in the USA the market is frontrunning the Fed which makes their job harder.

[loglorry1] 09/2/2024 10:21

"and the refinancing date is quickly approaching."
March 2025 isn't that close but yes its not great to have that sword over our necks.

[loglorry1] 09/2/2024 10:20

Anyone else got their fibres tingling?

[genista71] 09/2/2024 10:18

"I make it that in a fire sale scenario the assets are worth roughly around 60p per share."

You are dreaming.If this was remotely true it would have happened. As it stands shareholders in this are at the mercy of the banks precisely because a "fire sale" isn't happening and the refinancing date is quickly approaching.

“Under what conditions is this a zero..Todays conditions. Thats what. This has been run by incompetent clowns."

This is more like it.

[tigerbythetail] 09/2/2024 10:18

Yes, just dumping regardless of price.
I wouldn't have thought it possible, but it is. And it must be respected.

[bagpuss67] 09/2/2024 10:13

This is carnage.

[wskill] 09/2/2024 09:52

God a rights issue at what price .

[tigerbythetail] 09/2/2024 09:42

Barring Armageddon, (in which case we all have bigger problems than DGI9!), this isn't a zero.
The problem isn't with the underlying assets, which are sound enough, but with liquidity at the DGI9 level. This is a "debt juggle" until the assets can be liquidated.
And, like it or not, the managers have a "get out of jail at a cost" card. Which is to raise new equity at a steep discount and to dilute existing holders. IMO, this is already pricing in, and the consequence would be, given that the concerns over liquidity would be eased by the money from the raise, that after the raise the share price would rise.
I make it that in a fire sale scenario the assets are worth roughly around 60p per share. Even if it is necessary to double the number of shares in issue to resolve the cash-flow crisis, then these shares are worth a lot more than the current share price.
And if a raise isn't necessary, even more so!