Digital 9 Infrastructure Share Discussion Threads

[riverman77] 19/6/2025 17:22:23

Depends if they see any value in Arqiva - they should know the asset better than anyone. They wouldn't get CORD particularly cheaply - would probably have to pay around NAV for a bid to be agreed (currently on a 25% discount but closing rapidly).

[spectoacc] 19/6/2025 16:45:09

If they could buy (part or all) of DGI9, or CORD, which would they go for.. (Clue: not DGI9 :)).

[mark5man] 19/6/2025 16:35:57

I did have a think about how this may wind up - and a cheeky low offer for Arqiva that gave maybe 20p return from Macquarie or equivalent did cross my mind. This would be disappointing as I am convinced there is more there, but I imagine a number of us on here may have averaged down to that and it would be a relief and an enabler for the money to do other things other than sit and wait

[craigso] 19/6/2025 11:40:55

Macquarie just raised a $8bn fund that, among other things, wants to invest in "digital infrastructure".

Wishful thinking I know... lol

[cousinit] 13/6/2025 13:48:00

Just wondering if there are any views on how much cash the Board will keep back after the Aqua sale proceeds land?

The InfraRed fees are £3.75m for the first 36 months. Running costs will be hacked back you would think, but will probably still be £1m+ pa?

If in theory no more cash comes in till 2027, might they keep £10m+. With no borrowing facility, likely to err on the side of caution?

[duncansawalker] 12/6/2025 00:35:40

I read it as, my tuppence.
1) Elios requires time and perhaps some capital to extract a return decently in excess of that it could be sold for now, and therefore is 'worth the wait'
That may mean that they could sell it for 20M now, but, with some work and tweaks, 30M.
2) Aqua is in market where excess capacity is ensuring low returns on certain routes, and without integration vertically into other data centres, for example, it's a 'toll road business' and difficult to product differentiate / add value for returns in excess of capital cost. And if capacity is increasing expodentially on existing lines via technological progress, then this requires serious capital to simply stay price competitive with existing clients, who can 'switch' easily.
3) The market will only likely marginally 'reward' the shareholders for sale of a data centre asset ( the smallest asset, valued on yeild basis, with minimal valuation risk in GBP terms / correlation to other assets). It implies nothing for the rest of the assets / consequential NAV. That said, no portfolio debt, no RCF, less pressure on sales, more time to enhance remaining assets / deal strategically with co-shareholders.
Bit dour, sorry! Good news overall, and a 5% jump is no bad thing.
News on Arqiva strategy is what I want!! This and good news re: payout (i.e 5M or 50M!!) is what will shift the price 25%+

[tigerbythetail] 11/6/2025 17:56:34

Would people think it good or bad news now if the Aqua sale were to collapse, (say for regulatory reasons), now the RCF has been repaid?
For my money, I'd possibly consider a positive on balance.

[craigso] 11/6/2025 14:59:52

Perhaps... but all of our current share price agony is due to dumping Aqua at an unexpectedly low price. If there was a reasonable price for Elio on the table, it might have made more strategic sense to sell that one instead and try to fix Aqua before sale.

Working on the basis that Infrared always knew that EMIC + SeaEdge would be enough to pay off the RCF of course...

[stemis] 11/6/2025 11:59:02

It doesn't have to mean it can't be sold 'for a decent price'. It could mean they think they could take steps to enhance the price beyond that, especially knowing they had a sale in the bag to pay off the RCF and other transactions that were going to take time...

[craigso] 11/6/2025 11:54:32

@loglorry1

4p in cash is good (obviously). Especially once those dollars are converted into sterling.

The market is saying that Elio and Verne earn-out are a zero until proved otherwise IMO.

DGI9 themselves have recently said "the sale of Elio Networks has been paused as the Company undertakes various value-add initiatives to maximise shareholder value from the asset prior to its eventual sale." Something that can't be sold for a decent price during a wind-down with an RCF needing to be repaid and investors keen on some capital return doesn't strike me as "pretty firm".

Of course there's substantial upside and I'm as overweight here as many others. I'm just attempting to explain why the market hasn't reacted quite as positively today as some seem to expect.

[loglorry1] 11/6/2025 11:00:20

But @craigo there's 4p in cash and 3p for Elio making 7p in pretty firm assets now. At 9.5p Arqiva is in for 2.5p and outside chance of a bit of Earn Out.

Who knows what it's worth but 2.5p is a pretty cheap option for it being worth more than the VLN. The smart money (not me) saw this at 7p and were getting a free option obviously ;-)

[chucko1] 11/6/2025 10:54:09

True, but were I an origin seller at 10-11p, three things:

1. Might not have any left to sell, and/or
2. Would I sell at the same level given a sale of an asset at NAV flat(ish) and additionally
3. The elimination of the RCF eliminates a degree of external pressure and hence improves negotiating freedom on remaining assets allows for a probably calmer medium term investment.

[craigso] 11/6/2025 10:41:27

The market has indeed being telling us things we refused to believe for a couple of years now.

A paid-off RCF is obviously good, but now we're left with:

1. £35-40m coming from Aqua
2. An asset that can't be sold until it's fixed up (Elio)
3. An asset that could easily deliver zero (Verne earn-out)
4. Arqiva

There's no obvious reason why achieving debt-free status should make anybody substantially more bullish about the above. And the last time the share price spiked to 10-11p, it didn't take long for sellers to show up again.

[mark5man] 11/6/2025 10:09:57

Although I am delighted with the news, especially for the chunks I got near 8p, I think one can forgive the market for not rushing in given the bad news and aroma that has typically wafted alongside this share.

[riverman77] 11/6/2025 09:52:06

Markets a bit slow to react this morning. While not a big transaction it does settle once and for all the RCF issue and also validate their valuations. If they're able to sell things at NAV while trading at a 75% discount then this suggests the potential for pretty spectacular upside, with minimal downside.

[nigelpm] 11/6/2025 08:36:00

It's always a question of relative value. I don't see much else out there that excites me so investing here is probably not a bad call.

[craigso] 11/6/2025 08:26:21

With the RCF paid off, the Aqua proceeds of £40m (although probably lower once the US dollars are converted into sterling at updated FX rates) should be free for distribution.

That's 4.5p per share.

I've got to stop myself from averaging down yet again - DGI9 is really good at bad surprises - but 9p per share doesn't seem to have much downside.

[bagpuss67] 11/6/2025 07:40:46

Good stuff

[spectoacc] 11/6/2025 07:22:49

Sold at "..Broadly in line.." with the December valuation. Great news that the RCF is no more - we knew it was coming, but always a niggling doubt.


"The Board and Investment Manager will continue executing the orderly managed wind down of the Company, prioritising the return of capital to shareholders from remaining portfolio company divestments and maximising the value of such investments whilst they are owned or part-owned by the Company."

[bramcych] 11/6/2025 07:19:40

RNS SeaEdge sold, RCF to be cancelled

[nigelpm] 11/6/2025 07:19:33

Both sea edge and the facility gone. Useful moment.

[craigso] 06/6/2025 12:18:43

I'm certainly "overweight" based on initial investment. Not sure whether the same applies to current market values. lol

I'm certainly trying to ignore the recent uptick in share price - I've got more shares than I need and don't need to chase a bit of positive momentum...

Arqiva itself seems to be just fine. The major issue has always been the complicated ownership structure. I trust that a debt-free DGI / IR will have enough runway to arrive at a reasonable outcome.

[mark5man] 06/6/2025 09:38:21

Thank you Duncan a useful insight - I am seriously (even ridiculously) overweight here (by my standards), but main driver for me it has been that I don't think Arqiva is a dog and that competent management of the financial complexities should result in a return above 20p. So I was getting worried with TP but am a lot less worried with IR - even as I weep at the value that has been destroyed or leached away in fees, there is gold underneath it all.

See you all in 2027 although an earlier resolution would be very, very, welcome

[duncansawalker] 06/6/2025 01:23:12

Craigso - bang on the money with DGi9 - I have learnt exactly the same lesson.
Scale DOWN the punts.
I think I may I have even bleated about 'margin of safety' as some point. Christ. Huge position and serious egg on my face here but with an average priced of 21.5 im still holding out some belief I might make it back...
Arqiva news is not bad at all, they seem to be genuinely making traction on water metering, at least in new deals / deal retention. An obviously 'scalable' market, really in political focus. I'd agree a little confidence is returning...and I dont think it's worthless. How profitable this will be vs the in-built leverage & how this impacts the DGi9 share price pre 2027 is another matter, especially given the telecomms considerations. I still live in hope of some spin-off sale to PE and the telecomms ran as some 'setting star' with divis, and rights to tech/infra.
Re: Oak Bloke I think he does a good job in uncovering some potential investments I'd never have come across. Some I've researched further and invested in have been wildly sucessful to be fair - MAFL & Thor explorations (2x) Oceans Wilsons (+25%) in very short order (<6 months) in a highly volatile market.
Some recommendations I think are wild.
As ever, discretion is required!

[craigso] 05/6/2025 09:09:45

Use OB for idea generation and information sourcing. Ignore his conclusions...

Certainly nobody can cover that many obscure small caps and always be right, but he does dig out interesting bits of information. I certainly don't have the time or inclination to find Arqiva reports.

Personally, this DGI9 debacle has taught me to make fewer, higher-conviction plays based on concepts I understand better than undersea cables, data centres, etc.