Deltex Medical Share Discussion Threads

[daz] 09/12/2015 15:17

It's not often you see a world leading product on offer for just under £9m all in.
Of course they aren't profitable yet but so many blue-sky product companies trade at much higher valuations.

[trotterstrading] 09/12/2015 14:43

DEMG have the best in class product, the next generation system/probes are even better and will put them streets ahead of the competition. They will be rolled out during 2016/17 I believe.

No reason why DEMG could not secure the lions share of this market with their leading technology

[doglover2003] 09/12/2015 11:49

amt

Size of market expected to be over $1.5 Billion worldwide by around 2019.
I will try to find the reference.

DL

[amt] 09/12/2015 09:42

Thanks Jump and Dog cleaver. So looks like about extra 3m of sales annualised sometime next year. The size of the market must be huge, so worldwide roll out eventually could be worth hundreds of millions ?

[ramnik007] 09/12/2015 09:26

Would be good if Deltex can get more than 20 before year end. Might hopefully encourage some buying!

[yump] 09/12/2015 08:42

Numbers also briefly discussed around 3rd. Dec.

Quite easy to stick a few revenue figures in and see what comes out. What was interesting was that in 2013 revenue went up by £1mln compared to 2012, but all the costs apart from US market development were level.

That's what we all bought in originally for I guess - the heavy gearing of profits to revenue increases. Once regular revenue increases appear, the picture changes significantly.

The regular additions of US accounts is after all this time actually moving DEMG towards that elusive end.

[doglover2003] 09/12/2015 08:31

amt 7671

expect average of 800 per year rising to 1200 p.a within 18 months as best case estimate

DL

[amt] 09/12/2015 08:24

Thanks very much. So 30 accounts with say thousand probes per year would be roughly 3m plus in revenue.

[doglover2003] 09/12/2015 08:11

Amt 7668

Revenue £125.00 Margin £112.50

[trotterstrading] 09/12/2015 08:10

I can't remember off hand but CEO said US business will be profitable by mid 2016. I wouldn't get to hung up on the ££s at present. What matters is they are now getting serious traction in the biggest medical marketing the world. It's about trajectory, where is the company going, not where it's been. The future looks very bright for DEMG IMO, the NHS will sort itself out eventually, but we now have other player in town

[amt] 09/12/2015 07:53

Anyone know how much each probe contributes to revenue ? Target of 20 accounts by December 31st looks achievable.

[yump] 09/12/2015 07:49

Good grief, what's happened... its accelerating !! I might actually have picked a bottom to buy at for once back in Feb and won't regret not selling on the rise to 8p...

We should probably all stop knocking the NHS, given that loads of other countries would like one. I'd rather knock the various governments for installing too many layers of management and not putting sufficient funding in. Particularly the Blair era; wasn't that a 'never had it so good' boom ? In which case, where did the money go for the NHS and the potholes in the roads ??

[trotterstrading] 09/12/2015 07:15

Nice RNS, I re-state my previous comments.. At some point during the next 12 months DEMG will at LEAST double IMO. Some exciting news from Spain next I think?

[dj trading] 07/12/2015 12:26

TT - I agree re best in class product and US does appear to be growing. It is such a shame for Deltex and UK patients that the NHS haven't adopted it for all appropriate operations advised by NICE. Price pressure presumably even though NICE have demonstrated that it will actually save NHS £1000/op through reduced hospital stay and post op complications.

Remains on my watch list

[trotterstrading] 07/12/2015 11:21

DJ, thanks. I've got no problem with a cash raise, they have a best in class class product, there is an unmet medical need and its now getting traction in the US market.

If we are not at the bottom I think we are close to it, I'm looking ahead 12 months and I would be very surprised if the share price doesn't at least double from here during that time.

[dj trading] 07/12/2015 08:24

TT for info - I posted regarding cash burn last month - copied below

Based on this I would say that a fundraising in the next few months is very likely

Despite what Directors may have said!




DJ Trading 20 Nov'15 - 13:06 - 7638 of 7662 0 0 edit

Doglover _ I'm not following these anymore but a quick inspection of the accounts suggests the cash position is dire.

Cash
Jun 14 £4.2m
Dec 14 £2.9m
Jun 15 £1.3m
Dec 15 not a lot!?

And borrowings - now shown as a Current Liability - £1.7m

[trotterstrading] 07/12/2015 08:17

Thanks Daz, I bought a few this morn, I think the share price could easily double from here when the US business takes off and the new product upgrade is rolled out.

[daz] 06/12/2015 12:26

Depends how you look at it TT, as things stand they don't as management are confident of the year end cash position. What they do need to do though is roll over the convertible loan, to maintain adequate headroom. The investor has done this before and they say remains supportive but it is a question mark.

The company have said that when they hit their target of 30 US accounts, the US will be profitable, so hopefully that will be in Q3 2016.

To expand at a faster pace in the US and to allow them to retire their convertible loan, which I think would be sensible, they would need funds and I think is what p1nkfish was referring to but I don't see this as being necessary in the short term.
They should be able to comfortably fund evauluations for at least 10 Us hospitals a year in their current US sales territories.

A lot though depends on how the NHS plays out. If the company can maintain sales and current cash generation, then things looks good. If there has been another lurch downwards in UK sales, then things become more difficult

[p1nkfish] 05/12/2015 11:20

Ideally, I would say they do to strengthen balance sheet.

[trotterstrading] 04/12/2015 22:38

Do Deltex need to raise funds in the near future?

[yump] 03/12/2015 20:51

... and just to get an idea of figures... at a p/e of 10 on a 4p share price, it would need about £800,000 of pbt.

However, obviously if it looked like it was moving to profit, the p/e would move up in advance.

[yump] 03/12/2015 20:49

I just divided revenue by no. of units, so £120 would be nice.

According to the interims, the two oldest accounts are near maturity and usage was 'broadly flat', implying that the drop in probe sales in the first half was due to lumpy ordering, which explains why the largest account has been moved to monthly ordering, rather than bulk.

Presumably once nearing maturity an account can more easily know its likely probe usage, so advance stocking in bulk isn't necessary any more.

I'd quite like to know what level they have settled at, although that presumably depends on the size of the hospital. Not sure which ones they are - the first one must be Duke...

[bypooh] 03/12/2015 16:30

I think you will find that, in the US, probes sold for £120 each in H1. That has possibly increased due to cable.

Apart from running out of money, they do seem to be making headway in new accounts, albeit more slowly than they might have hoped. A major worry for a potential purchaser/partner is why the two main old accounts have reduced usage, one drastically.

[yump] 03/12/2015 11:26

Just revisiting my loss. I've got a bit confused with all the reports of probe sales going up and down, volume etc. So just having a look at the possibilities to get some sort of base from which to work up or down:

I make it roughly £80 per probe.

30 US hospitals at some point in 2016.
Average of 100 probes a month would be 36,000 a year.
Which is about £3mln revenue.

UK used as a cash generator, which at least demonstrates the way in which the business model was/is supposed to work. Translate that to US...

Hmmm.

[arf dysg] 01/12/2015 12:58

The Daily Mail link (BigT20, 7649) says:

"A major Mid-West teaching hospital agreed to buy 40 of its oesophageal Doppler monitoring (ODM) probes each, while a hospital in Washington State said it would take a minimum of thirty."


Doh! Don't they know the difference between "40 probes" and "40 probes per month" ????