Dekel Agri-vision Share Discussion Threads

[cheshire man] 25/3/2021 10:53

Dekel Agri-Vision
@DekelAgriVision
·
10m
Our portfolio includes the established palm oil operations at Ayenouan, which are well placed to benefit from high global crude palm oil prices during the current peak harvest season in Cote d'Ivoire

Our additional growth plans include adding a third commodity to our portfolio

[chadders] 24/3/2021 15:50

A new high for CPO.



Current share price is laughable. Stunning news each time we have an update this year, yet the price has fallen 25% since Jan....

[2vdm] 23/3/2021 16:44

Yes a positive for DKL into the future and thanks Riv. What I didn't fully understand was "The path of consumption will be affected by the speed of recovery of the hospitality sector, notably in India, which is a significant consumer of palm oil." Presumably they are suggesting that it's used a lot in restaurants etc in India. However, surely some/maybe a lot would have been mitigated by an increase in domestic usage, with more people eating at home?

[rivaldo] 23/3/2021 08:27

Today's results from MPE are most important in respect of their rather bullish commentary on the palm oil price:

"Palm-oil market

The CPO price at the end of December 2020 stood at US$1,035 per tonne, a level last seen in July 2012"

"The price of CPO climbed in the second half of 2020, ending the year at a price of US$1,035 per tonne cif Rotterdam. This strong level carried over into 2021. In the first two months of the year it has mainly stood above US$1,000, and indeed from the beginning of February 2021 climbed further to reach US$1,100. The price was influenced by higher export levies introduced in Indonesia. It is also likely that exports from Indonesia in December 2020 may have been boosted by trade brought forward from January in order to avoid potentially higher levies on exports in 2021. Nevertheless, stocks of palm oil were at low levels at the end of 2020. A recovery in palm-oil production is expected in 2021, although the extent of this may be limited by continuing labour shortages arising from travel restrictions imposed to control the spread of Covid-19. The path of consumption will be affected by the speed of recovery of the hospitality sector, notably in India, which is a significant consumer of palm oil. In the longer term, insufficient levels of replanting in Malaysia and a reduction in new Indonesian planting are likely to curb growth in production.

Notwithstanding the uncertainties surrounding Covid-19, the board is of the view that palm oil, because of its high yield and low cost of production, is well placed to benefit from increasing demand for vegetable oil and hence that the outlook remains encouraging."

[rivaldo] 22/3/2021 13:49

I've been sent an article on DKL which was in yesterday's Sunday Express - unfortunately it doesn't seem to be online.

It notes that DKL are benefiting from both high CPO prices and a strong start to the production harvest season, and DKL are "on track for record results".

The CEO is quoted as saying that, with cashew processing due to go live in Q2, "Cashews should be almost immediately cash-positive. It has the potential to be a bigger business than palm oil (for us)."

And "Moore added that Dekel plans to diversify into two more commodities".

[gb904150] 19/3/2021 08:48

The last RNS mentioned the export opportunities:

Dekel continues to assess export opportunities to achieve even higher PKO prices

So we have locked in prices at 800 €/tonne for local sales and sold down stock from the vats to capitalise on current strength. That underpins profitability.

Then any production expansion that takes us beyond local requirements means we can benefit from the export market pricing.

I like that we'll be getting monthly updates - gives great visibility. Plus the RCN ops to come on stream...then the mystery '3rd commodity'.

I was impressed with Lincoln Moore and his last update. Plus the great ownership/commitment to the business. Looks like a solid long term play.

[tradertrev] 19/3/2021 08:23

Palm oil price retreats....but we have locked in very close to the peak. Clever chaps!!

[chadders] 17/3/2021 15:59

Interesting thought dropside. As tradertrev says RSPO certification is for the global market. LM also anticipates a premium when offered to the ethical segment of the market.

[tradertrev] 17/3/2021 15:36

They're not doing all that work on gaining the sustainable palm oil certification just to keep selling everything locally.

[dropside] 17/3/2021 12:33

If the local price and the world price difference widens, I wonder at what level exporting CPO becomes worthwhile? DKL must have this on their radar.

[chadders] 17/3/2021 09:52

For interest only. Still very positive for CPO out there, now $1160 a tonne...

[chadders] 15/3/2021 17:06

Good point Mach100, thanks. Still interesting to know the broader picture though I reckon.

[mach100] 15/3/2021 13:49

Afternoon Chadders. It is only fair to point out from now that DKL is decoupled from the CPO price as per the recent RNS. It could go up x10 and unless company policy changes it will make no difference. It will be a useful hedge if the price gets skittled. I am a holder myself and enthused by the various prongs.

[chadders] 15/3/2021 13:34

CPO price still on the up

[outlawinvestor] 14/3/2021 14:47

mr doughnut - I think it is a good idea. I've had similar thoughts especially for multiple timeframe charts with volume as liquidity ramps up into H2 and beyond. Something similar to with smaller charts for reference commodity prices or ETF/index trackers and links to price providers like REA, PalmOilAnalytics and others.

Alternatively Wiganer could add more to the header here if he/she still follows this thread.

[mr doughnut1] 14/3/2021 09:44

Cheers for the link to the presentation Riv.
Just a thought - Does any one else think we need to start a new thread, perhaps not until the cashew production plant is operational? We could incorporate a link to the Rea website CPO graph and do the same for Cashews. A new thread would perhaps reflect the multi commodity business that DKL is set to become and remove the focus on palm oil.

[2vdm] 12/3/2021 22:01

Thanks rivaldo. A simple and effective presentation about the company, where it is currently and quite a bit about the future. I hope we will hear more about the next leg of production, whatever crop they have in mind, with renewable energy as a 4th. Importantly, they look like they will soon get the RSPO accreditation re ESG which will attract buyers who may be feel more obliged nowadays to look at accredited sources, which bodes well for DKL who are in that space.
Palm oil prices still high and half way through the season, so hopefully sales will exceed the 2017 record year and the cashew mill due to be commissioned and working in July. A lot going on and all in the right direction so far.

[outlawinvestor] 12/3/2021 17:58

Cool up-to-date presentation! Thanks for sharing. Hopefully the PDF will be posted online soon - it has some new slides with cashew operating metrics.

[rivaldo] 12/3/2021 14:09

A new DKL shareholder presentation posted a couple of days ago on Directors Talk:

[rivaldo] 12/3/2021 10:38

I've bought just a few more. The lack of price movement since Wednesday's update seems ludicrous to me given the locking in of prices, as OutlawInvestor says. If there's a seller out there then this is an opportunity imho.

CPO prices are back at their 7/8 year highs as of Wednesday:

[outlawinvestor] 11/3/2021 11:37

Yes, closed above MYR 4000. The 15-min delayed chart is free on TradingView.



As we learnt yesterday local CPO prices are now capped and floored around €800/MT for the remainder of the high season and maybe beyond. No surprise that Arden now feel confident enough to recalibrate their model with a conservative €700/MT CPO price.

[2vdm] 11/3/2021 11:09

Just been watching Bloomberg Global News and the scrolling news bar at the bottom of the screen has amongst other news "Palm oil bursts through 4,000 Ringit on global supply fears".

[rivaldo] 10/3/2021 12:42

Arden have now increased their target price to 9.3p....

They've also raised their forecasts heavily, with a 62% EBITDA upgrade for this year and continued growth in future years.

They now have €4.7m adjusted EBITDA this year, rising to €6.6m next year, with €2.9m operating profit rising to €4.8m next year.

They summarise:

"Dekel Agri-Vision has announced a very strong production update for February 2021. We have upgraded earnings and increased our target price. We reiterate a strong buy rating with a considerable upside of 94% to our target price."

"Earnings Changes. We upgrade earnings forecasts to reflect increased average CPO selling prices and PKO prices. Given the sustained double-digit uplift in average PKO selling price we now model €775/MT from €675/MT, an increase of 14%. For 2022, we model €775/Mfrom €725/MT (+8%). Combined with our CPO price increases noted above, this drives a 65% upgrade to 2021 EBITDA to €4.7m and moves net Income to a profit of €0.6mvs. a loss of €1m previously.

Based on our DCF sum of parts valuation we value the company at 9.3p per share and reiterate our buy recommendation. The stock yields 20% FCF in 2022 on our conservative forecasts with increases in cashew processing utilisation to come which shoulddrive cashflow and value.The Group is continuing to demonstrate excellent execution on the diversification strategy, positive operational momentum supporting excellent shareholder returns."

[chadders] 10/3/2021 11:51

Excellent update, added a few this morning. Arden have to change their target price now the high season is locked in massively above their €600 forecast.

[rivaldo] 10/3/2021 09:13

Cheers re the new interview burtond1 - here's a direct link. It's well worth listening to.

Great to see the CEO ready to talk about records beinjg broken this year:



"We believe our palm oil operation in 2021 could challenge the record financial performance in 2017…”

Dekel Agri-Vision’s financial performance of four years ago created a benchmark on the company’s spreadsheet when the West African agriculture company achieved revenue of €30.2 million and EBITDA of €4.5 million.

That could be surpassed as the February palm oil production update shows that Dekel has made the best start to a financial year due to a combination of global prices trading at multi-year highs and a strong start to the peak harvest season.

That’s according to Dekel’s Executive director Lincoln Moore who describes progress at the multi-project, multi-commodity agriculture company focused on Côte d’Ivoire as ‘fantastic.’

Spreadsheet aside, Moore is equally focussed on the gantt sheet showing the progress of the cashew processing project in Tiebissou, which is due to commence production in Q2 2021 with revenues generated soon after."