Debenhams Share Discussion Threads

[knigel] 14/10/2018 10:02

kpmg - is there an article in the Sunday Times today please? (if not - was it a lie?)
Why have you said CAKE has hit the wall - is this another mispresentation? Did you not notice that the company has been saved with a cash injection? Shameless ..

[debsdowner] 14/10/2018 09:55

Reminder:

More bad news from the press this weekend the inews puts the boot in by naming the biggest swings due to market turmoil of late.

Debt-en-hams one year return -78% :

"Stalwart of the UK high street Debehhams has been somewhat of a poster child for the rapid decline of traditional retailers over the past few years, with investors nervously eyeing a slow decline in revenues since 2014.

This year’s post Christmas trading update seemed to put the nail in the coffin, however, with shares plummeting nearly 20 per cent from 35.58p to 28.92p between 3 and 4 January after the firm reported annual profits would be around £20 million lower than it had hoped. Since then the rout has deepened, with shares now trading on just 9.7p – bringing year to date losses to 78 per cent and making the firm a top five faller in the UK market in the year to 28 September, according to Morningstar.

On whether the once dominant department store can recover, Jeff Henriksen, founder and managing partner at Thorpe Abbotts Capital, is sceptical: “The market is in full “show me” mode for struggling retailers like Debenham’s and the evidence that keeps on surfacing seems to confirm the story of secular decline and a rapid erosion of earnings power."


This is what inews said about Carpetright:

"Analyst consensus seems to be that Carpetright is not quite as doomed as other high street retailers like Debenhams, though. Ultimately we all still need floors, and they are not quite as easy to return to an online retailer as a pair of shoes."


Debt-en-hams "Dooomed" says inews!

[kpmgaccountant] 14/10/2018 09:35

excell1

These are exceptional times and the business fails the cash flow insolvency test. They are having to liquidate new season stock in order to pay its bills. The BOD has a duty to inform the market and should at the least issue an RNS to bring forward the results.

[excell1] 14/10/2018 09:29

The lack of clarification ...ha ha

They are in a closed period prior to releasing results.

[kpmgaccountant] 14/10/2018 09:25

excell1

I hope you have heeded the warnings here. The lack of clarification from the BOD given the terminal decline in share price tells all.

Next week the share price decline will be brutal. Big shorts have made so much money and have enough stock to dump to drive the share price to oblivion.

[excell1] 14/10/2018 09:16

You lot being paid double time for posting on a Sunday?

[kpmgaccountant] 14/10/2018 09:03

5p is the next target price for this share as a CVA is a foregone conclusion given Debenhams is overtrading and cash flow insolvency is inevitable.

The market should also factor in the Mike Ashley risk factor meaning a CVA could be scuppered and the business sold through a prepack administration. Given the risk, 4p seems more appropriate.

[qantas] 14/10/2018 08:43

Capitulation en route 25% shorted they are doomed to failure.

Please do your own research

[kpmgaccountant] 14/10/2018 08:37

The sell off will accelerate as stop losses are triggered on Monday. The sell off will continue until the shares are officially suspended.

My biggest concern for Debenhams is their stock valuation in their 2018 accounts. The stock value should be recorded not at cost but at its actual value which is lower than this. Debenhams selling stock more than 80% off means the stock valuation could be materially incorrect meaning the accounts are inaccurate and the guidance profit missed. Such an announcement would precipitate a collapse into administration and investigation into the directors.

[only who?] 14/10/2018 08:20

Deb too big to fail, then??

[kpmgaccountant] 14/10/2018 07:29

alex0000

The share price could dip below 5p in the next two weeks as short funds pile pressure on the retailer ahead of the annual meeting.

The business fails the cash flow test for insolvency, KPMG will know that by now and an RNS / share suspension are imminent.

I would dump your shares on Monday open and then wait. Short funds still have more stock to dump on the market in the coming days which will lead to catastrophic share price decline. Selling your shares will reduce your losses significantly.

[qantas] 14/10/2018 00:21

KP Fruit and Nut case Good job you are above the law enjoy your time...

Please do your own research.

[alex0000] 13/10/2018 23:58

I agree with everything besides "insolvency is days away". We don't know that, earnings report this month will show us how close insolvency is.The days of huge department stores are gone with online sales percentage growing higher and higher every year. I am sure management understands that and they will adapt next decade, if they survive.I won't buy anymore unless it drops to 5p or lower. Its the only stock I have in my portfolio with more dept / equity more than 5.

[kpmgaccountant] 13/10/2018 23:36

alex0000

The international franchise business is fine. That's not causing the collapse. Before investing more you should visit one of the many stores in the UK which are on long leases with very little footfall on upward only leases. The earnings decline is caused by these stores and has got to an unsustainable level.

The company is overtrading with no credit insurance. With £520m facilities it cannot cover paying for stock up front. It is having to liquidate new season stock as quickly as possible to pay its bills. It can only do this for a short period.

Insolvency is days away and it is hard to define what equity is left in a company with such high debt, declining EPS and over £4 billion of leases. The share price will continue to collapse, it will accelerate as big short funds smell blood and move in for the kill.

[alex0000] 13/10/2018 22:55

I live in Cyprus and the two huge Debenhams stores are pretty much full all the time. I've come across retailers near bankruptcy before. Their stores are empty and their shelves are empty.It has survived for 200 years, it has huge brand awareness and heritage. Sure it's going through rought times, so is the whole sector, it's dept should be addressed, and it needs a strategy restructuring with a more focus online and with reducing the size of it's stores and the very expensive leases over next 5 years, which is what the current management is doing.This board is too pessimistic, like the rest of the market. Can Debenhams collapse? Sure, there is a chance that's why the heavily discounted price, however there are great forces at play to keep a 200 year old company going, it's not as simple as "bad news on Friday collapse to 0 on Monday". There are tech startups which no one knows, founded 5 years ago with higher valuations. Mr Market is famous for throwing random prices around.Never buy a stock unless you are ready to keep it for 10 years. This stock isn't for traders, there are a million better stocks to trade to make a 20-30% return. Here you risk 1x your capital to hold for whatever time is needed and make 5x-10x back, betting in just one thing, that a 200 year old company will survive 5-10 more years and succeed in it's plan to refocus it's strategy appropriately.My average price is at about 15p, I will average it down to 10p if the stock collapses more ignoring the noise and I will hold forever and either make something like 5x or lose the 1x (the invested capital). I am fine with those odds.

[qantas] 13/10/2018 22:24

Only who good news my robot etk is programed to buy Debemhams on Monday morning that's how confident I am in the future of Debenhams

Most shorter stock at 25%

Shorts doomed to failure.

Please do your own research.

[debsdowner] 13/10/2018 20:41

Banks reducing lending as borrowing appetite increases by customers is a sign of bad times to come:

"Trends in unsecured loans have been broadly similar. Banks are reducing the availability of credit at the same time as customers are demanding more. The Bank said that the large increase in demand for unsecured loans was solely caused by credit cards."




As borrowing falls there will be less money spent in the shops this will further decrease shop sales which are already falling.

[only who?] 13/10/2018 20:41

I'm a longtime follower of CPR, but if DEB/s chart looks bad check out JPR, which "hammers up" about 10% perday. Qanbotic should be buying in!

[debsdowner] 13/10/2018 20:09

kp

Seems we are singing from the same hymn sheet circa 7p I indicated 7-8 early week and nearer 7 pence give or take half a pence wither way. So 6.5p a real possibility at some stage.

[kpmgaccountant] 13/10/2018 19:58

What a 48 hours it has been for the high street with Coast, Patisserie Valerie and Supercuts hitting the wall. The scale of the Patisserie Valerie scandal is circa £40m. £28m cash on balance sheet turned into £9m deficit!

Debenhams is overtrading and is the next to fall. The next week will see an apocalyptic share price fall to sub 7p

[debsdowner] 13/10/2018 19:11

This is what inews said about Carpetright:

"Analyst consensus seems to be that Carpetright is not quite as doomed as other high street retailers like Debenhams, though. Ultimately we all still need floors, and they are not quite as easy to return to an online retailer as a pair of shoes."


Debt-en-hams "Dooomed" says inews!


LOL

[only who?] 13/10/2018 18:43

Qansbotic

OK, how about explaining to us WHY the share price will be 15p on Monday. If you're wrong, then promise not to post here again.

[qantas] 13/10/2018 18:08

debenhams such a shame you are doomed to failure in your mission.

Wishing you a pleasant weekend.

Please do your own research.

[debsdowner] 13/10/2018 17:51

More bad news from the press this weekend the inews puts the boot in by naming the biggest swings due to market turmoil of late.

Debt-en-hams one year return -78% :

"Stalwart of the UK high street Debehhams has been somewhat of a poster child for the rapid decline of traditional retailers over the past few years, with investors nervously eyeing a slow decline in revenues since 2014.

This year’s post Christmas trading update seemed to put the nail in the coffin, however, with shares plummeting nearly 20 per cent from 35.58p to 28.92p between 3 and 4 January after the firm reported annual profits would be around £20 million lower than it had hoped. Since then the rout has deepened, with shares now trading on just 9.7p – bringing year to date losses to 78 per cent and making the firm a top five faller in the UK market in the year to 28 September, according to Morningstar.

On whether the once dominant department store can recover, Jeff Henriksen, founder and managing partner at Thorpe Abbotts Capital, is sceptical: “The market is in full “show me” mode for struggling retailers like Debenham’s and the evidence that keeps on surfacing seems to confirm the story of secular decline and a rapid erosion of earnings power."