De La Rue Share Discussion Threads

[smackeraim] 20/9/2022 08:04

Mourning period over, wonder when boe mentions what's happening with new money.

[dealy] 14/9/2022 12:38

well, I'm not so sure. I think this is a genuine tail wind for the company

[imastu pidgitaswell] 14/9/2022 12:32

It was never going to be a sustained thing - there was not going to be a sudden sustained leap in operational performance, just more of what they already do with a slightly different phasing.

C'est la vie (or death...)

[dealy] 14/9/2022 09:57

so much for the "new monarch" bounce

[smackeraim] 12/9/2022 12:46

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/banknotesThere are over 4.7 billion Bank of England notes in circulation. Together they are worth about £82 billion."We work closely with De La Rue, the company that currently prints our notes, to ensure they are of a consistently high quality."I'd imagine once mourning period is over and new note designs commencing, there will be a lot of press coverage on them. Just sayin'

[dealy] 11/9/2022 08:13

Cash is important if you have a negative bank balance. In that situation you do not necessarily want to receive payment via bank transfer if it doesn't enable you to buy things with the money.For the next 6 months there will be tens of millions of bank balances in the red so cash will be very useful in the UK and many other countries

[jack ladd] 09/9/2022 20:35

People have been asking me: "When are they going to change the bank notes, to feature the new monarch?" I am reliably informed that almost all the bank notes in circulation in the House of Commons already have Charlie on them.

[aringadingding] 09/9/2022 18:06

hxxps://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/here-s-what-will-happen-to-coins-and-notes-now-the-queen-has-died/ar-AA11CfWV?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=64fb43cfd4b44ac4a9c29d8862810d61

"old coins and notes will slowly be removed from circulation when worn out"

[aringadingding] 09/9/2022 17:26

It's almost a bit of a maths problem...

If all bank notes are usually replaced every 5 years, then in a given year 20% are replaced. Call this the baseline market size, x.

If in the coming 2 years they are all to be replaced, then that's 50% per year, so 2.5x per year.

However, at the end of the 2 years, the regular cycle of 20% per year will have been broken and your stock of bank notes will be quite new. In theory you would not need to replace any for the following 3 years.

For a firm like DLAR the primary desire will be to fully maximise uptime of existing machinery. Decision as to additional capex will surely depend on overall recent demand trends rather than this event. DLAR don't want a quiet phase on machinery any more than BOE want to pay excessively for bank notes in the short term. Does not seem awful for it to be phased over a few years if that is the most economic thing overall.

I guess it could serve as an excuse for some other countries to transfer to polymer which could benefit DLAR.

For me an accelerated sales phase followed by a slower phase is not a compelling reason to re-invest, even if they are up a bit overall at the end. I suspect the tick up was somebody smarter than me buying when the news were camped outside Balmoral, then some chatter going around that they may or may not have initiated.

RIP The Queen

[masurenguy] 09/9/2022 16:43

"The Queen has appeared on all Bank of England notes since 1960. There are about 4.5 billion individual Bank of England notes worth about £80bn in circulation at the moment and, as with coins, these will be gradually phased out." BBC News 9 September.

[darrin1471] 09/9/2022 15:29

I heard on radio 4 at lunchtime that previously Prince Charles office had let it be known to Royal Mail that pre printed stamps with the Queen on were not to be wasted and were to be used and not destroyed. The current position of Royal Mail is that new issues that have already been approved by the Queen should still be issued.

[my retirement fund] 09/9/2022 14:55

All history now but this is what activist shareholders Crystal Amber were saying in January: (source FT interview)

Bernstein, head activist at Crystal Amber, told the FT that he had held talks with a number of rival groups about a potential bid. Crystal Amber had been in talks with De La Rue's chief executive Clive Vacher and chair Kevin Loosemore. He predicted that a sale of the authentication business alone would generate significantly more than De La Rue was worth.

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imo They may just have played their cards well, with the new bank note facility, and as pointed out currency weakness should see De La Rue scoop all of this emergency bank note printing.

Right now, the market is valuing the printing business at zero !!

DYOR

[masurenguy] 09/9/2022 14:22

The weakness in the sterling exchange rate - pound has fallen by 12.5% against the Canadian dollar over the past 2 years - will certainly give the advantage to DLAR in gaining market share of UK banknote production in competition with CCL.

[darrin1471] 09/9/2022 12:56

DLAR 2022 annual report

"Our flexibility will be enhanced by the new line at Westhoughton, which will more than double our capacity for manufacturing polymer substrate, as demand for polymer banknotes continues to rise."

[my retirement fund] 09/9/2022 12:37

That's correct and their new Westhoughton factory which was purposely designed and built to manufacture polymer substrate notes will have fully recovered from Covid delays and with the obvious emergency demand for commonwealth notes now, increasing margin and managing inflation driven input costs should be a given. There really is no excuse not to see astronomic profits 2023/2024 and full business recovery.

[gargoyle2] 09/9/2022 12:25

The design and manufacture of BofE notes is currently shared between DLAR and CCL. If I recall correctly, DLAR does all the £50, with the others being shared, although DLAR has been eating into CCL's share in recent years. All substarte notes are printed by DLAR, I believe.

[darrin1471] 09/9/2022 12:17

DLAR 2022 annual report

"As one of only two established manufacturers of polymer substrate worldwide"

I think the other one is CCL industries from Canada. Polymer substrate is a small part of the conglomerates business.

[darrin1471] 09/9/2022 11:48

DLAR 2022 annual report
revenue: Authentication £90.3m. Currency £280.9m

[slicethepie] 09/9/2022 11:47

With our love of everything German ( Lidl Aldi bmw) we will probably get them printing it for us !

[wbodger] 09/9/2022 11:39

Without that hindsight if you had the private jet information you would probably not have bet on it, because a hasty booking in those circumstances would only have been one flashing alarm. It could have been innocent.

Imastu's #2121 is interesting. Share price movement is usually a give-away.

[zho] 09/9/2022 11:21

>>As I say, someone traded on the information, it's clear.>>

I don't think so. As soon as it was announced that doctors were concerned about the Queen's health there was i) speculation that she might be near death, and ii) a realisation of what this might mean for DLAR.

[my retirement fund] 09/9/2022 11:17

Consensus earnings apparently YE24 was 15.2p, with a 3.9p dividend. 17.8p EPS and 4.65p dividend YE25.

BOE was already seeing a growing demand for cash due to living crises. It will be interesting to see the new broker forecasts when we get some guidance on replacement notes from BOE. I thought this looked stupidly cheap when I last looked, it now looks like free money.