De La Rue Share Discussion Threads

[gargoyle2] 22/2/2023 13:26

My heart jumped at the sight of a 'Director shareholding' RNS today -- Vacher buying at last? Putting some of hos own money, and a show of faith, into good old DLAR? But no, just a few more free options for him.

[blanketstacker] 04/2/2023 09:07

Thanks kooba for 2 Feb 15:19 post. A considered and thoughtful post. CRS want this broken up to release value. I agree.

[dealy] 03/2/2023 18:51

lots of companies announced mixed results in recent weeks. investors generally shrugged off bad news and allocated money to stocks. The hick ups in Kenya and India should also have been shrugged off by investors in light of the big picture

[kooba] 02/2/2023 15:19

I can see far greater value in the sum of the parts being sold, the company in currency is losing its market position and business and is no longer the player it was however to a competitor the business combination and the De La Rue brand still has significant worth. The authentication side again has good IP backing and should be in a higher growth area but again is not seeming to be able to expand its revenues into that market. The existing business there and the potential to combine with another in the space could be highly attractive.I see the businesses as being still but not for much longer worth a decent premium to market valuation. The business on fundamentals appears cheap to be honest but the successive profit warnings and slip ups ( albeit some legacy ones) means its difficult to believe the managements assurances that the 3 year plan is anything like on track.The material uncertainty is not to be sniffed at either and may well be a barrier to being able to win business..which then triggers the reason for the material uncertainty ! There is a possibility if there is any further downwards guidance that the company could feel the need to reinforce the balance sheet with further equity issue..shareholders already got heavily diluted and trying to raise equity against the current trading backdrop would be very difficult and very dilutive.So corporate activity upside...still think to the right buyer the parts could be worth 150p net however ploughing the current path could lead to further trouble not far away.The shares are probably not dear here on a risk reward basis but also not convinced we have seen the trading lows unless the company can convince with some new contracts to boost revenues.Not holding directly at the moment have been in an out a few times over the past few years successfully but last time cut and ran a little while back. But not really tempted just yet.I actually am very sad where the company finds itself and in my travels found the history of the company fascinating but over the past decade the company has become a shadow of its former self and has significantly lost market position.

[castleford tiger] 02/2/2023 14:50

do you see value here at any price Kooba ?

I am thinking barrier to entry and and all that.

tiger

[kooba] 02/2/2023 14:39

Well deanowls it wasn't directed at you and its difficult to know what your take on DLAR is at all..as to Jensen10 i think they know full well what the post directed at me was about and i have seen similar posted across the boards...if you are negative why bother posting ..you obviously don't hold. Its a hear no evil see no evil attitude which is understandable but short sighted. If i post lies or unsubstantiated dodgy opinion fine get narked ..but facts are facts. This stock has fallen a further 30% in the last three months against the market going up 10%..if folk see nothing wrong then they are not paying attention.

[kooba] 02/2/2023 08:57

Righto...perhaps tone check your own message to me.High level of passive aggressive sarcasm. Certainly my take. But i have now explained myself wasting more of my valuable time to help others better understand my position.

[jensen10] 02/2/2023 08:29

Apologies. I think you misunderstood my question. It was in no way meant to imply you shouldn't post your opinions and thoughts and trigger such an aggressive response. I for one appreciate your valuable insight. So thank you.

[kooba] 02/2/2023 08:00

I also have a wide spread of investments and post on many other counters not just one..i find over concentration of exposure leaves one just wanting to hear positives rather than any negative comment. But i always find it best listening to both sides.If there are any positives here apart from maybe the price is so bombed out we surely can't see more bad news and it go even lower please let me know. Thanks in advance.

[kooba] 02/2/2023 07:52

I'm a holder of CA and i thought i was free to post where i like without permission..being a longer term premium subscriber i will check the user terms. But thanks so much for raising your concerns.I however am curious why if my points are fact based and valid why it bothers you that i have posted.Chin chin

[jensen10] 02/2/2023 07:34

I'm curious Kooba. You make a lot of interesting and valid points which justify your negativity. But why are you wasting so much of your precious time posting on a BB if you are now presumably flat, given your view, and have no position in the shares? It's very generous of you to help others.

[kooba] 01/2/2023 10:07

Same head office since 1990 same as when they were a ftse 100 company in 2010 when they had double the revenue and were making £109m operating profit and turned down a 905p (£900m) take over offer. Market cap now £127m after they had to raise £110m in the process. Unfortunately this is a significant disaster story in the UK business world be its been a slow motion train wreck rather than a short sharp collapse.One can't blame the current management for legacy mistakes but the continued shrinking of the business what appears poor discussion making ..polymer focus is not paying off and low margins across the business is still happening on their watch..they said they could fix the business in 3 years ..unfortunately there is no evidence yet of them having any solution to the rot.The company over many decades has resisted takeovers and culturally seem against selling the family silver convinced there is more value..unfortunately for their shareholders taking any of the offers would have been far more beneficial that watching this collapse. Perhaps the board should consider acting more in the interests of shareholders whilst there still is some value in the business and brand. I think if they need to raise more money some existing shareholders will not be too keen on coughing more money up.

[slicethepie] 01/2/2023 08:44

If you want some idea of the largesse and culture of de la rue look at the head office. They need to attack the cost base and not pretend to be a big company. https://www.delarue.com/hubfs/Basingstoke.jpg

[boll] 31/1/2023 14:43

I think Harding may have gone because of the profit warnings. Not sure I agree with the auditors points as I think they are being ultra cautious. At the date of the last report the issue they raised was aro7nd orders yet these were slightly higher than the previous set of orders the company announced. The orders are probably falling but will pick up again as people will still use cash for transactions in spite of the other options. If future orders were going to a problem then maybe every other company which was dependent on future orders would also have an audit comment

[kooba] 31/1/2023 13:49

Its not impossible as it goes that such a qualification on the accounts could actually impact on the terms with their lenders in itself...i have no means to say that if that is the case though. But it would make sense that such a situation is included in the covenants.

[kooba] 31/1/2023 13:46

Not sure if you are up to date with CA strategy there appears no pressure to liquidate anything. But on your point of an over hang the last disclosed sale by CA seems to be Oct 2021..now the shares were somewhat higher then and well done anyone who lightened the load up there..but there has been no sales in well over a year ..other institutions have reduced since then but the share price decline is not CA selling or having to sell , it is 3 profit warnings and the various other mishaps. Disregarding a leading auditors warning is brave ..previously there have been situations where the auditor is too tight to the company and auditors generally have been given a shot across the bows to be more clinical in their assessment...hence material uncertainty and possible breach of covenants. I would say DLAR were lucky to get the lending sorted before that assessment because the banks would and will not overlook the auditors comments i guarantee.

[jensen10] 31/1/2023 13:21

No issue with your view Kooba. Your opinion and very well constructed. I am not blaming CA. I am just stating fact. They are in unwind and so need to sell. Others will always front run that flow until it fully clears. Finally on the material uncertainty I would take what the lenders do over an external auditor opinion. When did an auditor ever catch an issue before it slapped them in the face....,,?

[kooba] 31/1/2023 13:09

You think CA is the problem..lets not blame the inept management lets blame a shareholder..classic. In terms of relying on current guidance lets face it that has been brought down 3 times already in a year so i wouldn't bank on current guidance. The way it looks to me is that could be brought down again and the company will need to raise money before too long to prop up the balance sheet and address the "material uncertainty" highlighted by the company accountants.Lets think if you were a sovereign currency customer would you want your currency printed by a financially shaky business? Will this impact their receiving new contracts? This kind of publicity is not good for business!! https://www.accountingweb.co.uk/business/financial-reporting/ey-praised-for-calling-out-de-la-rues-troubles

[jensen10] 31/1/2023 12:37

That's the point Kooba. The list of negatives is very long and explains the share performance. Issue is how much is priced in, including lack of confidence in current management. Despite lowered guidance, the EBITDA is still going to be around 45-50mm vs EV including 90mm debt of 220mm. Pretty cheap and factors in lots of negatives and company leverage is not particularly high. As I said previously this is not a share for a lot of investors, but patience and removing that crustal amber overhang are a prerequisite

[kooba] 31/1/2023 11:54

Since the company called the GM as a vote of confidence in the Chairman the stock has fallen a further 30% ..the FT all share is up 8% in that time. The company stumbles from disaster to disaster and is i worse shape than when the new senior leadership team took over..they raised £110m cash..the market cap is now £127m valuing the company pre fund raise at a mere £17m.Dealy its nice that you can support the performance of the company ..can you provide any positives from the past 3 years against the many negatives?

[gargoyle2] 31/1/2023 08:07

Look on the bright side. Harding (like Vacher) doesn't have any meaningful shareholding (if any at all) in DLAR, so there won't be a stock overhang with him going!

[dealy] 31/1/2023 08:03

Execs leave companies on a regular basis. Not the end of the world. Operations go wrong sometimes, not the end of the company