Dart Share Discussion Threads

[woozle1] 15/4/2019 14:03

Still pinching myself that we avoided the 737 max fiasco. That is one of those left field events that are impossible to predict but then again there are a few of those in investing. I remember the Iceland volcano! That’ why investing in an inherently risky proposition that can only be guarded against by having some level of diversification. I need more than 5 stocks, me thinks.

[wagnerlove] 15/4/2019 12:40

Sure Woozle, I agree we cant take the net cash number at 100%. But how exactly to account for all that cash is a matter of some debate. Dart is a very negative working capital business model (negative WC is consistently c. 30% of sales). As company says, it finances itself in part through what are in effect interest free loans from its customers. That is secret sauce of the model - this "float" results in v. high returns on equity as Meeson has used this "free money" to reinvest in business at high rate of return. But those liabilities to customers do not get paid back in cash, but as a service in future. Customer advances are not strictly equivalent to cash, but nor are they debt - e.g customers can't just cancel at last minute and get their money back.

[sogoesit] 15/4/2019 12:27

Sudden strength....
A "leakey" update on the way?

[woozle1] 15/4/2019 11:06

Beware that net cash figure. This is a negative w/c business and one needs to net off s/t customer liabilities. That’s not say it’s trading cheaply and that there’s plenty of growth. All airlines are cheap at the moment and the only thing that is stopping me loading up with more that I have so much DTG.

[castleford tiger] 14/4/2019 22:15

I can’t see one till they have the final figures from last year. That’s only 2 weeks ago.
IAG carries huge debt compared to us.
That said the shares look cheap

We are a holiday company with an Airline.
Big difference
Tiger

[wagnerlove] 13/4/2019 20:10

Tresham, I am also looking forward to an update. Will clarify where things stand. As of interims in November there was net cash of £460m, or £3.10 per share, on the balance sheet, so if you wanted to give company full credit for all the cash, Dart is on p/e of 5.6X (if it indeed earned the forecast 94p EPS in year that closed at end of March). Lets see what the update brings.

[tresham] 13/4/2019 19:27

I'm looking forward to an update this week. Travel and package holiday business is very competitive. I notice that IAG are on a PE of around 5; Is that because they have borrowings of about £9bn, pension liabilities of about £1bn and “goodwill̶1; of £3bn? If DTG were on the same PE of 5 and earnings this year are 90p the share price would be around 450p? What do you think of the IAG share price? I’ve been steadily selling over the last 6 years but still hold a large stake.

[sogoesit] 12/4/2019 11:58

Good point. The main attraction of any good stock to me is good management (and deal-making).
Although this sector is highly competitive and subject to recessionary and other (unpredictable) risks DTG is a play on these risks against how its competitors' (TUI, TCG etc) play out the same risks.
My investment is a winner versus loser play rather than a specific play on the sector.
DTG wins where others lose. One example of which is your point about cheap aircraft.
I think DTG's local advanatges (dominance?) in the North of Engalnd is also under-rated.

[woozle1] 12/4/2019 11:40

Here's a thought. Does the collapse of so many airlines present an opportunity to pick up planes on the cheap? Meeson is hardwired to get good deals on planes and wondering if there are opportunities to expand the fleet without having to pay up for brand new planes. For example, Jet Airways has 65 737-800s that will be looking for a new home. Meeson has always been an opportunist. And don't forget he started the passenger airline after 9/11 when there were lots of cheap planes on the market.
w1

[fokker100] 08/4/2019 19:41

Don't listen to these de-rampers. Jet2.com and jet2 holidays are here for a long time and will increase its market share further, especially after a disastrous season that the other 2 are going to have.

[davebowler] 08/4/2019 14:09

Going back to Tripadvisor I was amazed to see how many reviews there were -rated 5 stars on average!

Jet2.com 5*

20,428 reviews

[castleford tiger] 07/4/2019 15:01

Yes I backed the tiger

[castleford tiger] 07/4/2019 15:00

Shaker
Vertical integration is the right way and Jet 2 have full control
From booking to checkin to loading the bags, to operating the aircraft to the transfers and then on site and then all in reverse.
Tcg send people to hotels that in some cases were not up to scratch.
I had a family friend last year running the Kids club in one such hotel.
Within 2 weeks all the staff had food poisoning ( hospital in some cases ) her attempts to raise this with a line manager came to nothing and the company sent thousands to a hotel that was a disaster.
The staff had to eat out until they all gave up and came home.
The line of command does not work there.
Part of the reason it’s failing.
They do know now what needs doing but don’t have the cash.
Shareholders will be wiped out within 2 years is my guess.
Tiger

[shaker44] 07/4/2019 11:36

I hear T1ger roll didn't finish!!!

[shaker44] 07/4/2019 11:35

So like any business Tiger, if you have the perfect strategy but execution is seriously flawed, then you are screwed. BTW, did you risk a few quid on TIGER roll?!

[castleford tiger] 07/4/2019 10:58

Shaker
Vertical integration is the right way and Jet 2 have full control
From booking to checkin to loading the bags, to operating the aircraft to the transfers and then on site and then all in reverse.
Tcg send people to hotels that in some cases were not up to scratch.
I had a family friend last year running the Kids club in one such hotel.
Within 2 weeks all the staff had food poisoning ( hospital in some cases ) her attempts to raise this with a line manager came to nothing and the company sent thousands to a hotel that was a disaster.
The staff had to eat out until they all gave up and came home.
The line of command does not work there.
Part of the reason it’s failing.
They do know now what needs doing but don’t have the cash.
Shareholders will be wiped out within 2 years is my guess.
Tiger

[shaker44] 07/4/2019 09:46

Some would call that sensible vertical integration to leverage the Brand. But those 3 elements do need to be well managed, which they are probably not!

[sogoesit] 07/4/2019 09:22

Reading-up, in english, the TCG annual report it seems they have three strategic businesses: Tour Operator, Airline and Hotel Owner & Operator.
Doesn’t seem to me that this mix matches. Something has to give, strategically, or all will fail; likely due to a lack of strategic focus and clarity.
A great short imv. (I don’t but would if I did!).

[En outre, “Permettez-moi” de corriger votre francais!] ;-)

[tongosti] 06/4/2019 21:16

avec plaisir, permet de faire semblant de laisser de côté des ironies...
...if i ever decide to launch an educational subscription service, I promise you will be the first on that list.

last time i called a bear market back in Oct: a) share price dropped 19% and DTG also dropped by roughly 30% over the period. Definition of “Ze” Bear: www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearmarket.asp

stay tuned for next round...

u 2 have a smashing weekend!

[castleford tiger] 06/4/2019 18:26

tongosti

Educate the Tiger...

Are we in a Bear market?

have a good weekend
Tiger

[tongosti] 06/4/2019 16:55

SF - it takes a professional trader to recognise one. As you can see, some on here think they've joined a religious sect not a forum which should thrive on adversity. These poor sods are the proverbial fair weather "investors" who confuse luck for brains and lose their shirts big time during bear markets. And then some. Good weekend.

[castleford tiger] 06/4/2019 13:29

ANY SLOW down will kill TCG first.
Companies like EZY get hammered then TCG will be slaughtered.

jet 2 have scaled back expansion at certain airports. LBA 2020 will be pretty flat with 2019.
however our Model allows us to increase capacity if demand is there. We wet lease for this purpose.

Jet 2 growth for 2020 will be mainly Birmingham and London . I do not expect 30% growth again in 2020
Of course a major failure by a competitor would change things.

Fleet size looks like 102 for summer with some A320`s and A 330 for peak routes.
One A330 is to be kept over the winter period.

It is tough out there and low prices are everywhere.

Tiger

[shaker44] 06/4/2019 09:48

Agree. Meaningless without knowing the specific question

[nocton] 06/4/2019 09:29

I should think that in most years "about 1/4 of UK consumers holiday at home"! And they're only "considering it". I'm surprised it is not more. It's really a meaningless statement as many people take a UK and an overseas holiday.