Dart Share Discussion Threads

[tongostl] 01/4/2019 11:33

I'm feeling confident :)

[sux_2bu] 01/4/2019 11:31

How do you know that YOU will be here next year.Tomorrow is never promised.

[tongostl] 01/4/2019 11:27

The way things are going (with Jet2s competitors), only Jet2 will be around this time next year lolz.

[sux_2bu] 01/4/2019 11:17

Has any seen the dart chart.There is one hell of a drop to go on the weekly and monthly.All other airlines are in the gutter. Hedge funds leaving the worst till last.This is seriously bad.

[sux_2bu] 01/4/2019 11:13

Jet2 will be slaughtered next. It's going to be show show.Buy easy jet.

[tongosti] 01/4/2019 10:00

Yes - you're wondering can be proxies by the share price performance. Another 10% down and the game changes completely.

[tongosti] 01/4/2019 09:15

Sad individual (must be the W crowd) trying to highjack my identity. Get a life chap

[sux_2bu] 01/4/2019 09:07

No, that's wrong.Jet2 are late reporting. I wonder why.

[tongostl] 01/4/2019 09:03

Jet2 is bucking the trend. All other airlines/holiday makers suffering BECAUSE of Jet2, wait and see, our results will be exceptional. This time next year Jet2 will be the UKs biggest (and best) holiday maker with a mrkt cap exceeding £2.5B.

[sux_2bu] 01/4/2019 08:24

Every airline, expect Jet 2 so far, is in disarray.These will be next, seatbelts on.

[snorkelparker] 01/4/2019 07:59

Easyjet warning not a good start to the week

[tongosti] 30/3/2019 13:45

Ah an when you say "unfortunately for me" again you are speaking nonsense. Had you followed me properly (like you should), you would have known that I have been flat on DTG this year and waiting to join whatever the next move is with the better odds in its favour.

[tongosti] 30/3/2019 12:30

Both entry and exits meant earlier

[tongosti] 30/3/2019 12:29

No sure what your definition of following means as my short calls (big entree and exits announced on the boards) on both wider markets and DTG back in October paid in spades. If the intention is to have a fact based debate, I welcome it. If it is to speak nonsense try the W duo. They both love sucking up to permanent bull cheerleaders.

[wagnerlove] 29/3/2019 16:15

You could make the argument: 1) Price of oil has been artificially low over last three/four years, meaning market is incorrectly extrapolating a temporarily low cost base, and elevated margins, into the future and will be surprised when Brent gets back to $100 a barrel.

Or 2) A very large and well-funded competitor in the form of Easyjet is preparing to enter the UK package holiday market next year, and will trigger a price war for market share that will hurt Dart earnings going forward.

Or 3) you could argue that Dart has taken on large amounts of debt in the late stage of the cycle, and combined with the above factors this makes it a riskier proposition than when it had no debt. Travel is sensitive to the economy, we could have a recession etc etc.

Or: 4) Hard Brexit will cause collapse in demand in UK holiday market, trigger a run on the pound and see costs spike for company with almost all revenues in £££; and all costs in €€€; and $$$.

These are possibilities. But what do we actually know as hard facts? That the company did £350m in operating profits in first six months of this year on a market cap of £1100m, and net cash of £460m. Do the maths. What odds are you getting here?

[11023154] 29/3/2019 15:58

You are probably right tongo, many shareholders have joined in on the ride but potentially, unfortunately for you, the underlying business is actually too good that it is unlikely to suffer greatly. Factor in several of the big boys losing market share at record levels. I appreciate you’re probably leveraged and thus are happy with a 10/20 percent fall but in my opinion you’re playing with fire as the company is actually one of ftseAIMs best companies in a changing market and you’ve misread the business model/market. The trend has been sharply upward over the last 5 years, I do expect this to continue, but with volatility, so for your sake, I hope your market timing is on point because I suspect you’re chasing your losses and will continue to do so like so many do. I’ve seen your posts and the timings and you are probably down.

[wagnerlove] 29/3/2019 15:52

Respectfully, can you show me your working for that assertion? Just anything with some numbers in it. Not numbers about share price, but numbers about what the "business can deliver". A statement about expectations (share price, in your view) being out of synch with "what business can deliver" only has meaning if you can quantify in some form the latter. I'm all ears.

[tongosti] 29/3/2019 15:31

That trading update better be much, much better than expected as most on here have been surprised that the last two updates haven't managed to help the share price. Reason? Simple: I have argued for a long time on this board (performance especially post July 2018 is testament to that) that there has been a dichotomy between (share price) expectations and what the business can deliver.

[snorkelparker] 29/3/2019 14:55

WL, Very good point on sometimes luck does come into play.. But I do like to think PM gut feel got a deal not just on price but risk as well..Its a real dilemma on the 2019 - 20 numbers, the additional planes must spell addional sales and therefore continued growth.. They are marketing heavy and really pushing ita sales which looks to be the best approach currently..Guess we will have the trading update pretty soon..

[wagnerlove] 29/3/2019 12:19

This is obviously not great: [hxxp://www.travelweekly.co.uk/articles/328013/uk-outbound-bookings-decline]. Numbers for summer 2019 at around same level as summer 2017, but a lot more capacity added.

And Thomas Cook is screwed. From this: [hxxp://www.travelweekly.co.uk/articles/327748/special-report-short-haul-is-a-challenge-but-overall-outlook-positive]

"Thomas Cook is caught “in the middle” of its rivals but the appointment of Will Waggott is a “positive̶1; move for the group.

Miles Morgan, owner of Miles Morgan Travel, said: “Tui is in a very strong position with its differentiated product. Jet2holidays is doing a brilliant job at a much lower cost base than Cook. So Cook is sandwiched in the middle and that space is a very difficult space to get out of.

“Where do you go? Up or down? Can you secure bed deals like Tui? That’s clearly the way it’s trying to go.”

[wagnerlove] 29/3/2019 11:51

Woozle, DTG dodged a massive bullet for sure. Imagine if all of new fleet had to be grounded going into summer? Catastrophe. Shows you how is is as important to be lucky as to be good.

Tiger, the “substantially exceed market expectations” was referring to earlier consensus, which was 60p 2019 EPS going into July FY results. After those results the house broker upgraded forecast for 2019 from 60p EPS to 94p.

Since that upgrade management has confirmed twice it will meet those expectations, in September AGM “the Board expects the Group to meet the recently upgraded market expectations”, and also in November results, “the Board expects current market expectations for the year ending 31 March 2019 to be met”.

As you know, six months from October to March historically has been about 30% of annual turnover, and all the money is made in April to September summer period. Winter load factors have been ok up to December, so I am pretty confident 2019 is more or less in the bag. As discussed here before, I expect them to do better than 94p for year ending end of March.

Big question ahead of trading update, considering tough conditions right now for short haul holidays/Brexit effect on bookings, is whether Dart will warn on 2020 earnings?

After November guidance on higher costs etc the Dart house broker downgraded 2020 EPS forecast to 81.7p, so a 13% implied drop from 2019 to 2020, so “market expectations” already quite conservative for this summer’s trading. As you say it would seem nuts to be adding loads of wet leases and adding routes if they didn’t believe demand was there for this summer, FY20 financial year.

[woozle1] 29/3/2019 10:27

DTG definitely dodged the Boeing 737 Max bullet! Interesting that the page about TCG's 737 fleet has been removed ( hxxps://www.thomascookairlines.com/en/fly-with-us/our-airlines-partners/our-fleet/boeing-757-300.jsp ). Read into that what you may!