D4t4 Solutions Share Discussion Threads

[napoleon 14th] 26/11/2019 13:47

Yes, I know.
Let's see where share price ends up.
I'm working on full year figures available & using chart as a referee.
If it looks like a great buying op. I'll act on it.
On my watch list.

'Bye.

[dave2608] 26/11/2019 13:43

How far into the future does this chart talk to you napoleon 14th? Does it communicate with you the price next July? Is it communicating with you any new contracts signed during the coming months of H2?

Of course the PEG wont shift as the bottom line of the equation is based on FinnCap' estimates. The year end 2021 doesn't start for another 4 and a half months but Finncap's figures are to be taken as gospel. Someone mischievously quoted consensus broker forecasts yesterday when as far as I know there's only one broker and that's Finncap.

The share price may drop further but that's nothing to do with long term prospects or charts talking and everything to do with people selling looking at the short term. That's what lots of people do you know, they look at headline figures and don't scratch beneath the surface. It can throw up great buying opportunities. D4t4 have stated that "prospects for H2 are strongly underpinned by a high level of contract renewals from new licences signed during the second half of last year and strong visibility on new contracts due to initiate during H2. This, combined with a significant pipeline of new business in negotiation with existing clients wishing either to increase the footprint of our software or to extend the use of our Hybrid Cloud Data Platform solution.".

Many people aren't focused on the H2 part, they're not looking at the bigger picture. They are looking at a narrower picture, H1 figures.

[napoleon 14th] 26/11/2019 13:39

SOLD OUT at 190p.

GLA.

[napoleon 14th] 26/11/2019 11:57

Chart says sell IMO. Now <200p & falling.
I hope for holders that the support holds, else it's 175 then 150p.

FinnCap's 2021 estimate 14.7p means a P/E of 15 @ 210p.
Was that 310p target price for 2021 with a P/E of 21?
I'm still in profit on D4T4 but not at all sure this one will earn its' keep.
Tech companies so often have a hard time of moneytising their know how.

FUTR, for eg., is still moving strongly UP after four-bagging in three years, because that formula is all about buying cheap assets - magazines are on the ropes for the most part - and moneytizing them thru' an IT stack. They've just made a deal to buy TI Group, owners of Country Life, Horse & Hound, Marie Claire, Womens' Own, Decanter & a load of others, paying £140M for a business bought by a US media group for US$ 1.26 BILLION about a decade ago....
CEO Zillah Byng-Thorne fully earned her bonus of £18M (!), as in 1.24 million FUTR shares. I hope that triples in value over the next 3 years! My little stack would too...

What I look for is companies that have a growth formula that outperforms - I also hold BIDS & IMMO, for eg.. Relatively risky but HUGE rewards if they perform as intended.

For all that's been said about Celerus, which I'm sure is state of the art, I can't imagine the same returns because the PEG hardly moves and is way, way, way over one.
So what's so growth stock about that?

Just can't persuade myself on D4T4. Maybe I missed something....
Sorry, not being a troll, just doing the maths - one of my cars is a Dacia!

[alotto] 26/11/2019 10:38

Napopleon do you think D4t4's growth is somewhat slow?

[napoleon 14th] 26/11/2019 00:09

2019 actual 13.9p
2020 estimate 14.2p
2021 estimate 14.7p

Somewhat pedestrian IMO.
Have no regrets in backing FUTR instead in a big way 2 years back!

[mfhmfh] 25/11/2019 19:46

FinnCap today reiterate buy rating and 310p target price.

[amt] 25/11/2019 19:34

History repeating itself yet again. Gives great buying opportunities who have followed the company for many years and have not been let down

[trident5] 25/11/2019 14:01

"If you keep going I'll short the share".

What's next - if you keep going I'll punch myself in the chops?

[dave2608] 25/11/2019 13:35

Go ahead, short it. It's a free country.

[valhamos] 25/11/2019 13:31

"Consensus broker forecasts show foreword decelerating earnings per share."

Unless revised forecasts have been issued today which I haven't seen, this is not true. Finncap have adjusted fully diluted eps:

2019 actual 13.9p
2020 estimate 14.2p
2021 estimate 14.7p

The above figures are also showing in Sharelockholmes.

[davr0s] 25/11/2019 13:22

If you keep going I'll short the share

[trident5] 25/11/2019 13:22

"Weighting!!!!!!!!! It's happened before and it will happen again."

Yeah - maybe. But this is what last year's interims said about 1H and @H weighting:

"This marks a return to a more normal trading cycle following the unusual (H2 weighted) business phasing seen last year".

So, I don't think strong 2H weightings are a reliable feature here.

[dave2608] 25/11/2019 13:17

"they'll have to go gangbusters in 2H to meet the forecasts." Will they? What if the wheels are already in motion? Like amt says we've been here before.

"but the very poor 1H doesn't fit the narrative of having an in-demand offering in an in-demand niche." So why aren't these big banks and financial institutions choosing other data capture platforms if that's the case? The H1 figures have been explained. Weighting!!!!!!!!! It's happened before and it will happen again.

The opinions some people would draw on today's results were highly predictable.

[davr0s] 25/11/2019 13:07

Yeah typical reaction. Consensus broker forecasts show foreword decelerating earnings per share. Price and volume never lie. Do what you want

[trident5] 25/11/2019 13:02

Broker forecasts are for lower earnings this year. And they'll have to go gangbusters in 2H to meet the forecasts. The best you can say is that earnings are lumpy, but the very poor 1H doesn't fit the narrative of having an in-demand offering in an in-demand niche.

[dave2608] 25/11/2019 12:48

Decelerating earnings? Oh really. How far does your crystal ball look into the future?
The fact is you haven't got one and your predictions are based on what? Broker's forecast for y/e 2020?

The trend's been pretty good so far.

Year end...........................Mar 19....Mar18....Mar17....Mar 16....Mar 15

Earnings per Share (Basic)........14.78p... 7.62p... 10.49p ....8.17p ....1.60p
Earnings per Share (Adjusted)......14.12p... 9.21p ...10.44p ....8.17p ....1.60p

[amt] 25/11/2019 12:38

Some are panicking but we have been here twice before and never let us down so I am keeping the faith.

[davr0s] 25/11/2019 12:22

Decelerating earnings, trend break in August under distribution - which is why I sold back then. Don't fall in love with a stock. Difference between being patient and unecessarily riding a share down

[napoleon 14th] 25/11/2019 11:41

alotto - fearful, or just plain impatient!
Sold 40% of mine ( still in profit from way back) & split that
1/4 into more IMMO long term, & 3/4 into FXPO for a month or two - short term buy.

[shanklin] 25/11/2019 08:37

vprt

I see your point but perhaps at this stage in the transition there are still some potential customers who prefer a bigger up-front fee vs going SAAS. Obviously D4T4 need to have appropriate pricing options for both options and then go with the flow of customer preference.

[vprt] 25/11/2019 08:26

Shanklin: Rather than dragging it out to keep the numbers pretty for those investors who don't understand what's happening, I'd suggest just biting the bullet and getting the strategy, business model and pricing right. The market is demanding it. We have to give the customers what they want. If done in close alignment with partners, both the business and the shareholders will be better off.

[trident5] 25/11/2019 08:21

The hype and reality are very different here.
And don't get the "seasonality" at all.

[alotto] 25/11/2019 08:18

Some got fearful today