Cyanconnode Share Discussion Threads

[tightfist] 07/12/2024 15:04

My take on it is that in 5 years Revenue should have climbed nearly 1300%, during which Sales/Share will have climbed 700%, and Recurring Revenue% is off intoOrbit. Lots of ways at looking at numbers....,,

[stupidboypike] 07/12/2024 15:03

I bought and posted that I had at the time. I’ve bought a lot more since at prices up to 26p (yes I bought some at the very peak!). It’s a waiting game. Like everyone else I am very bored of waiting but I still believe in the balance of probabilities that it will come good. Time will tell.

Best regards SBP

[inthetin] 07/12/2024 14:54

Needing the share price to rise by 100% to return to a market cap that the company had 3 years ago is amazing. Amazingly bad.

I was 'lucky' enough to buy (quite a lot) in the 1.7p's in May'20 but that's history. Hardly anyone else was buying at that time because I was watching the trades like a hawk. However, it's funny reading these BBs now because everyone and his wife was buying at the same time (apparently).

Kind regards

ITT

[stupidboypike] 07/12/2024 14:33

Or, share price up over 100% over 4 years. Amazing job this lot. Really does depend on perspective.

Best regards

SBP

[inthetin] 07/12/2024 14:03

SP 65% down in 3 years with 50% dilution to boot. Perhaps we would stand a better chance if a few more hopped it and we got some fresh blood in.

[tightfist] 07/12/2024 11:41

Hi DTB; job hopping seems to be part of the Indian culture - hopefully post will be re-filled or re-organised quickly.....

[derek ten bag] 07/12/2024 10:52

Morning all. Just about to answer my own question. The one who is missing is Aniruddha Shahapure. He was the SVP Delivery & Operations. A pretty crucial role at this time I would have thought. Hopefully to be replaced with someone of similar pedigree. Any thoughts anyone?

[donkyman] 06/12/2024 17:30

I would think they are buys

[derek ten bag] 06/12/2024 16:18

Afternoon all. Just noticed that one of the 'Leadership' team has left the building. Can't recall who it is but there are only nine on there today and it was ten before. Anyone any inside info on that?

[derek ten bag] 06/12/2024 10:58

Just out of curiosity, are those two 50k trades this morning buys or sells or do we not know?.

[estienne] 05/12/2024 09:28

Cyan Commode - regularly flushed!

[inthetin] 04/12/2024 15:51

tightfist

Just out of interest, I have asked one of my HNWI friends (yes we all have them) if they would mention Cyan to their broker. I am due to have the broker's reply forwarded on. Very much looking forward to that read and might even share some of it.

[tightfist] 04/12/2024 12:49

ITT; can you share your wisdom regarding (trashing?) their equity stakes, please.

[inthetin] 04/12/2024 11:40

Hi Gizmo555

With JC & HP, there's always an excuse and there always will be.

That's what we'll see.

[gizmo 555] 04/12/2024 10:19

Hi inthetin ...I look at cyan maybe on verge of having a realistic chance of increasing involvement into the largest upcoming Global projects = value....price is 9p..I've been worried for ages ....there is no reason for staying on uk market if you don't need cash ...let's see.....

[inthetin] 04/12/2024 09:36

Regardless of all the noise that JC & HP create, the share price is 10% lower than it was a year ago and that's after a 13% dilution to boot (with more to come soon).

It's OK though because they've been paid their £700K - £800K during the same period and that's all that matters.

Great work.

[multibagger] 04/12/2024 07:23

Good morning TF and all :)

It has always been about the "macro" picture - as in investing if one gets the macro trend right, you de-risk very significantly. "A rising tide lifts all boats" and all that.... for me the biggest macro trends relating to CYAN are

1. India - the most populous country on earth currently estimated 1.4 billion and growing, average population age is around 28.4 yrs. Much more protected from global geopolitical headwinds due to massive domestic market.

2. India is by far the biggest digital services leader/provider to the Global South and is rapidly ramping up its presence and offer - again a couple of billion people and new markets to go after

3. Smart metering as a concept - underpinning the gas, electricity and water sectors

4. Energy underpins and is a foundation stone for economic growth which is happening at a much higher pace than in the "west" and water is one of the major determinants of life


A couple of observations from the recent GIC deal to take a majority stake in Calisen

1. The big 3 (Blackstone, Mudabala and Goldman - no mugs themselves !) bought CLSN for circa £1.4 Billion in early 2021 and have now sold it for about £4 Billion....so quite a RoI to say the very least. It could be that the former CLSN has significantly grown as a company in the interim to justify the huge uplift in valuation but that seems unlikely as smart metering rollouts are typically slow. I think that there is a big "financial goodwill element" priced in for GIC to establish a bigger footprint in the energy smart metering sector. Bodes well for our CYAN India AMISP business and valuations.

2. In terms of ballpark valuations per smart meter (end to end including meter, hardware, comms and entire software platforms ), I don't think we can extrapolate at £220 to India as it is at a different price point. From Industry sources, I hear that AMISP bids are in the region of £80-100 per smart meter over contract lifecycle. So I take a more conservative valuation of what our CYAN AMISP could be worth in India - but nevertheless it would be mega/huge. It appears that there could be just under 200 million smart meters still in play in India which have not got the SI element/comms element nailed down. Plenty to play for. There is more talk about expansion of the RDSS smart metering programme from 250m to 330 million or thereabouts to meet the population/buildings expansion In India since the original smart metering project was envisaged - though these things may take time given the financial outlay.

Good luck all :)

[derek ten bag] 03/12/2024 16:12

Well TF, that's very reassuring. And I agree, if the delivery rate is maintained then all should be well. They seemed pretty confident in the recent update that revenue forecasts would be met. And the macro picture is, indeed, more interesting and potentially lucrative. I would hope though that we might get some news on one or both fronts before the year end.

[gizmo 555] 03/12/2024 13:24

Hi inthetin hope you good......I noticed bottom of the list of priorities and wondered why

[tightfist] 03/12/2024 12:22

Hi DTB, from my calcs (but DYOR) they already have sufficient backlog (from the 9.3m) to keep hitting forecast rising revenue until Q3 2027, PROVIDED all those meters get called off in time..Personally, I am not concerned about new LoA/orders on weekly basis - IMHO the macro picture is far more intriguing!

[inthetin] 03/12/2024 11:39

I noticed that they wanted an unqualified or newly qualified (i.e. inexperienced) individual. They didn't want someone knowing their way around and asking too many awkward questions.

[derek ten bag] 03/12/2024 11:31

Morning TF. As ever, interesting stuff. Can't help but feel that something significant is brewing in the background. Hopefully, to the great advantage of the faithful. Be good to get news soon though. We could do with news of more orders too, just to keep the pot bubbling.
I still keep an eye on the website and I notice that, for a while now, there have been no vacancies listed for India but two in the UK. The two UK vacancies now seem to have been filled. One of them was for an accountant. Well, someone's got to keep track as the profits roll in.
GLA.

[inthetin] 03/12/2024 11:31

The buyer has scarpered again.

You can only sell £2.8K (30K shares) worth without needing to go through to your broker.

[tightfist] 03/12/2024 10:32

Further to MB's post. It's a small world in SM's........ Yesterday it was announced that Calisen (aka Lowri Beck at street level) are being majority acquired by a Singapore GIC JV.".......EQT and GIC are set to acquire a majority stake in UK-based Calisen Group in the latest outsize smart metering private equity deal this year..The deal values the Manchester-headquartered company at £4 billion ($5.1 billion), according to the Financial Times. BlackRock, Goldman Sachs Alternatives and Mubadala will exit Calisen, having taken it private in 2021 through a £1.4 billion leveraged buyout..Calisen provides services around smart energy including smart metering, data services, solar and battery, EV charging infrastructure and the electrification of heat. It had installed over 14 million meters as of 2023..The defensive nature of metering businesses and the trend of energy transition have sparked investor demand in the sector.......".FWIW if now 16m Smart Meter networks are assumed to be 70% of Calisen's value, and the JV are acquiring 80% of Calisen, SM networks are being valued at circa £220 per meter point. One can imagine the potential Cyan AMISP disposal opportunity, several years into the future - if CC isn't acquired beforehand..You will be aware that GIC also recently JV'd with Genus India. I see a GIC JV also acquired German SM network outfit Techem two months ago. See PitchBook for more industry info.

[beeezzz] 03/12/2024 10:03

They pay their account enough money, you would think they could do simple maths..