Cyanconnode Share Discussion Threads

[multibagger] 21/7/2024 12:06

Hi DTB :)

Three parts to your query as I see it.

1. The "materially exceeded expectations" element is for year ended Mar 24 (last year) - so it is a question as to by how much did it exceed the market expectations ?

2. The more recent RNS about SAT and "Go live" are in the current financial year and hence won't have a bearing on results from last year.

3. We are not expecting a profit for the year ended Mar 24. A profit for year ending Mar 2025 is forecast if memory serves !

[derek ten bag] 21/7/2024 11:11

As a PS to the above post, the results are expected to show that revenues have 'materially exceeded expectations'. I think what we all want to see is this increase feeding through to the bottom line in the form of an operating profit. Given that the margins on the post-Go Live part of the delivery are, as I recall, much higher than those on the delivery part, that would surely have a positive impact on the bottom line. Not my area of expertise, but just my thoughts. Will we turn a serious profit this time round? Be interested in anyone's views on this.

[derek ten bag] 20/7/2024 17:57

Hi TF, good to hear from you. They have often indicated that they are limited in what they can release and, personally, I would rather that than wildly overoptimistic announcements that then lead to disappointment. I am really hoping that this will be a significant week for the company, at least via the results if nothing else. Like you I'm impressed with Montecarlo. I'm no expert, but my feeling is that we are pretty undervalued on current trading and we could see a good uprate. But who knows? Fingers crossed. GLA

[tightfist] 20/7/2024 17:15

Hi MB, thanks for your insight on the recent CC SAT RNS. .DTB, thanks for your half-full view of revenue development. Personally I was one of those underwhelmed by that RNS, notable that few figures are included. It is encouraging that some Go Lives have been registered and Recurring Revenue initiated, but at what quantum, is it material? For me the most encouraging fact was that new-kid-on-the-SM-block Montecarlo has reached the SAT threshold in just 18 months from CC contact award date, albeit they had a running start with an existing Omnimesh installation (see 04.01.2023 RNS).

[derek ten bag] 20/7/2024 10:28

Thanks Multi. I was just surprised at the number of SATs tests that are involved in a single project. Also, I got the sense last week that people were a bit underwhelmed by the RNS, but it referenced five Go Lives (as far as I can see) and since that appears to be the prelude to the billing and the start of the 'recurring revenue stream', I would have thought that this was quite significant in terms of next years earnings, especially as the other projects where the SATs have been passed, but GO Live has not yet started, must be fairly imminent. Either way, fingers crossed for good news this week and a proper, upward, rerating of the share price.

[dumper1] 20/7/2024 10:13

Hopefully they won’t be dashing out to offload and dilute shares to all and sundry and investors can finally feel like they are getting somewhere! GLA

[multibagger] 20/7/2024 09:03

Good morning DTB and all :)

SAT (Site Acceptance Tests) are a part and parcel of any smart meter rollout - it is like a "field trial" (as opposed to something that works in the lab or under test conditions). Different discoms will have different reasons as to why the number of SAT tests will need to be carried out due to terrain, topography, construction/population density etc for a project. There is no prescribed number but needs led. Hence, passing a SAT is a further step along the implementation of the rollout and is a positive sign.

Equally, when we go into markets where our products are not proven within the country and when they don't have the equivalent of a AMI testing scheme, then we will have to pass the SAT before they will allow us to bid for a particular project. I know that the SAT in Bangkok during the Covid time took ages.....

Hopefully we will have full year results this week and announcement of a date for the AGM - could be in the 3rd or 4th week of August ?

Good luck all !

[pillow] 19/7/2024 22:44

Yes, buy as much stock as possible at current levels :-)

[derek ten bag] 19/7/2024 17:57

For the wise ones on here, in the most recent RNS regarding the 'milestones', the first project mentions that they have achieved Go Live in three of the SATs. In the second it mentions that we have achieved GO Live in a further two SATs. Not quite sure how these SATs work and why there are several per project but that seems like a pretty significant achievement to me. Any comments from anyone on that?

[markingtime] 19/7/2024 15:43

It was over 24p 18 months ago. No real change to prospects since then....just election-related delays.

[skinny] 19/7/2024 15:00

Inspector Clouseau?

[gotterdammerung] 19/7/2024 12:11

Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know

[pillow] 19/7/2024 11:44

Time to take this very seriously now.Let's see how the market begins to respond.Simmering ahead of results.Incredibly low mkt cap with all known info.

[daddy warbucks] 18/7/2024 23:13

Last years full year results came out on Wednesday 26th July.

Could we get this years results as early as next Wednesday?

[derek ten bag] 17/7/2024 09:33

Morning Indiestu. My assessment, for what it's worth, is that our income initially came from the up front payments for product delivery. Once the installation is complete they go through the SATs and then Go Live, at which point the recurring revenue phase can start. I suspect this may be contributing to the 'materially ahead of expectations' news for our upcoming results. So this news today suggests to me that we have now gone through this latter process in several more projects and can now enter the billing process with them. Given that, if I remember correctly, some of these are fairly large projects I would expect them to give a further boost to earnings going forward. May be entirely wrong, but those are my thoughts anyway. GLA.

[chrysalis99] 17/7/2024 08:45

Everyone has died of old age waiting for the rumoured avalanche of orders to come in

[indiestu] 17/7/2024 07:23

What does it mean in terms of revenue generation? Is anyone more clued up than I on this company?

[derek ten bag] 13/7/2024 09:53

I know I seem to be talking to myself here but in case anyone else is still out there, interesting article in today's FT on the Indian stockmarket and, in particular, the significant appetite for IPO's. Let's hope we can tap into that demand and get CC's share price moving. Been a long time since we had our last order. The effects of the trading update and the upbeat Q&A are starting to wear off. Where is the stuff from the ROW, never mind India?

[derek ten bag] 09/7/2024 08:22

Apropos the above, if the results are very good, presumably, once the entire current order book is fulfilled they will be even better And we should be able to extrapolate this years results fairly accurately to give a good indication of near-future earnings. All of that said though, isn't it time we should be getting new orders, from somewhere?

[derek ten bag] 04/7/2024 09:18

Morning folks,
Just watched the Q&A again (for the umpteenth time). Between the actual session with John and Heather and the additional material, there is a lot to digest. There is a bit in the actual Q&A at about 1h10m when John is asked about the share price where he explains that, in an RNS, it is important, obviously, to maintain a high level of confidentiality about the numbers. He does, however, say that he hopes that the actual results at the end of July will, essentially, make good reading for investors and, hopefully, have a positive impact on the share price. I am of the view that these results will perhaps even surprise some of the more optimistic on these boards. Just my impression. We certainly need something to get things heading up. GLA.

[multibagger] 29/6/2024 10:40

Good morning all :)

Q1 2025 almost done - possibly have about £9m recognised in revenues. Then we have a more heavily weighted H2 and a final push in Q4 to be working towards/looking forward to. I am pleased with recent developments and the direction of CYAN strategically and there is always the high possibility of contracts from India and RoW landing !

An epoch changing election later next week and will the incumbent be good or bad for UK Plc and the stock market ? Hopefully we don't have CYAN good news buried in the election coverage fever.

Good luck all !

[derek ten bag] 28/6/2024 11:58

Hi Nick,
I have to say that I have always been impressed with Heather and while she is no doubt very supportive of John, I suspect she has very strong focus on the financials and, if necessary, will express her views robustly. I think the company has done very well to get where it is and is, to some extent, been restrained to the time it has taken by the fact that its area of operation is India. I also feel that John has done pretty well and I would not be too hard on him. I suspect that if and when we reach the tipping point, things will move pretty fast. Hopefully upwards.

[nick the greek 1] 28/6/2024 11:11

Hi DTB

The BoD in India is very strong.

That's another sign it’s being geared up to be sold imo.

The BoD here is essentially just a one man band of JC.

There’s no way Heather would ever question him and the non execs are pretty much just figureheads.

It’s not a BoD as such, it’s a dictatorship by J C and that’s why he gets away with what he does and has done over the years, he treats it likes it’s his own private company.

Shall we go again… 15 years and over £70m lost and he still can’t make a profit.

More turnover isn’t more profit and actually in this case the fact is it currently looks like a bigger loss!

The market clearly doesn’t think that (so far) that J C is very successful at making a profitable brand out of CC and neither do I.

The opportunity is now there for an share price increase from here of course and I believe it will come from India and the management that is set up and incentivised there but J C,s track record with this company is undoubtedly appalling regardless of what he’s done in the past.

15 years and a 70m loss!

It currently has a MC of circa 25m.

It should be multiples of that now and will be lucky to be sold for 50m.

He’s lost shareholders a fortune.

[derek ten bag] 28/6/2024 08:43

Morning Nick. Interesting comments, but while I would agree that the company was indeed guilty of over-promising and underdelivering back in the day, I think they got to a point where that changed to a much more cautious approach, perhaps even over-cautious. And, as a result, given the very small number of analysts covering the company, the only overtly upbeat views have tended to be on these discussion boards, and even then they tend to be quite nuanced. As for the BoD, I'm not an expert on these matters and it would be good to hear the views of others on here on the make-up and size of the main board, but I get the sense that we have assembled a pretty competent team in India. I certainly hope so. Both JC and HP did say that there is a great deal of work going on behind the scenes and I guess we just have to hope it all bears fruit.