Cyanconnode Share Discussion Threads

[nick the greek 1] 23/4/2024 15:49

My “guess” is now strongly that there is a large JV together with a likely placing being put together in the background.

The timing of this is very important for the company and has been planned around the “lull” in activity as of the election.

I would agree that the elections possibly won’t affect existing business but personally I think it unlikely that any large new orders will be granted by the AMISPS until after June 4th.

Then it will happen quickly assuming Modi gets in.

So I guess that the “inflection point” for a JV is now and the company are currently putting it together which is why Panmure have been brought in.

Likely early as of Crux’s sale of a lot of stock which has unfortunately, with no negative reason to do with the company, put a spanner in the works for the JV placing price.

It seems to me that Panmure are now still leading the offer and drip feeding stock out (likely more of Crux’s or possibly their own which they’ve taken on risk from Crux) and the price has become stable around the bottom of a trend at 8.5p.

I think they were hoping to get this away at the top of a trend ie 12 - 13p but Crux have scuppered this and that’s why Panmure have been announced early to “hold up the stock” as it was likely going out of range to 5p because of Crux’s forced sale and no real buyers as of the black out of news because of the elections and a possible JV meaning a near news black out too.

Consequently my guess is that they will announce a JV at or around 8p or 9p and existing shareholders will be diluted to hell.

Then the elections will allow the orders to proceed, we will be partnered financially to a large player and the reason why most here have been invested for so long will finally come to fruition.

Unfortunately that will be with very heavy dilution.

No doubt some will think that’s absolutely fine.

Let’s see what happens over the next 3 - 6 months at the good old ship CyanConnode!

[hamidahamida] 23/4/2024 12:43

Drifting bcz of upcoming Placing Confetti party soon

[derek ten bag] 23/4/2024 10:04

Four trades so far this morning. listed as sells. Is that the case or is the price just drifting down on lack of news?

[daddy warbucks] 23/4/2024 09:33

I wonder what the average volume weighted average is for Cyan?If we are to take on a partner, - keeping the share price at a stable level for calculating the overall price for a percentage of the company would help.

[johnwall] 22/4/2024 14:36

Apologies if this info has been posted here before -



"Currently, tenders for 19 crore smart meters are in various stages of progress. This massive scale indicates the significant strides being taken towards #digitalising India's power distribution sector and promoting energy efficiency.

K-Xchange, India’s only smart metering newsletter, by #IntelliSmart gives you a snapshot of the country-wide tender status.

Grab the edition now to find out about:
💡Tenders under evaluation
💡Tenders awarded
💡L1/LoA under process
💡Ongoing tenders

Subscribe K-Xchange from here: hxxps://intellismartinfra.in/resource-centre/k-xchange… "

[derek ten bag] 19/4/2024 17:33

Yes, thanks for that Multi. That clears things up for me and, from what I've read, it does sound pretty spot on. I suspect we may also deliver the HES as well. For me, after quite an eventful week, even though the share price doesn't reflect it, the most significant thing, apart from the announcement that we are setting up an entity to cover the MENA area, is JC's 'like' of the Adani note on LinkedIn. It says to the faithful, 'this stuff is highly relevant to us'. Not in any way market sensitive, but certainly reinforces the company we are now keeping, as does the appointment of Panmure Gordon as joint broker. If there is no big news on Monday (don't weekends get in the way of things?) I may be tempted into another little top-up. Once this baby starts moving it will move quickly. In my humble opinion, of course. DYOR, as they say, and GLA.

[stupidboypike] 19/4/2024 14:33

mb, much appreciated. All very positive in my view. Best regards SBP

[multibagger] 19/4/2024 13:53

Hi DTB:)

In that hypothetical scenario, I reckon

Adani Power/Energy/Enterprises will be the Lead Bidder AMISP and bankroll the SPV after winning the contract

Esyasoft will supply the meters and MDMS and possibly HES

Cyan will supply the communication part : supply RF Mesh/Hybrid RF Cellular/NB-IoT and possibly HES

We could be getting ahead of ourselves, but will be reassured that we are ahead of time and before the herd arrives !

[derek ten bag] 19/4/2024 13:22

If there was a hook-up between Adani, Esyasoft and CC, what part of the product would we be providing? Perhaps a silly question but I am losing track of who does what here. Who does the meters; who does the connectivity (presumably CC). What does Esyasoft provide at the moment? Are we getting ahead of ourselves? JC's linked in 'like' suggests not, but who knows? Not me, that's for sure.

[multibagger] 19/4/2024 12:00

Hi SBP and DTB :)

Ajoy Rajani was a senior VP in Adani group some years ago and some connections may still be current. I don't think we have done any contracts with them as yet, but probably in RDSS bids with them as AMISPs ongoing.

In the current context, our re-building of bridges with Adani could have possibly come about by Esyasoft as Esyasoft and Adani have formed a JV. We have virtually carried out every contract with Esyasoft in India, UAE and Nigeria.

EESL is a legacy provider who was nominated for about 10m smart meters in the infancy of the smart meter rollout but faced huge operational and reliability issues. The brand lost its credibility in my view and the re-branding and new funding and partners led to the development of Intellismart.

[derek ten bag] 19/4/2024 11:36

Good question SBP, I was about to ask that myself. I don't actually recall any orders from Adani, but I could be wrong.
Could somebody also explain where EESL fit into the picture? Does EESL still exist?

[stupidboypike] 19/4/2024 11:27

mb, Can you remind us of where our relationship with Adnai is at? Sorry being a bit lazy, if you don't have the answer to hand I'll go and research.

Best regards
SBP

[multibagger] 19/4/2024 08:24

Adani and (the Ambanis) have India virtually sown up economically....so riding on their coat tails would be a very shrewd strategy for someone like us and will open doors magically ! They are blessed by the Govt to turn the Modi's dream in to reality it would appear :)

It is probable that Adani and Intellismart will take a commanding market share of the RDSS contracts in India in the fullness of time IMHO.

[nilli] 19/4/2024 08:01

Yes, apologies, it was liked.

[multibagger] 19/4/2024 07:11

Many thanks Nilli for sharing the same...more grist to the mill !

Why oh why would JC post about Adani Energy Q4 FY24 highlights ????

Edit: He seems to have "liked" it ,not posted it per se....but nevertheless still intriguing :)

[nilli] 19/4/2024 06:54

Morning Multi and all.
JC posted this on LinkedIn

Adani Energy Solutions Ltd. 4th Quarter FY24 Operational highlights.

• Robust system availability of 99.6% in Q4FY24.
• Added 174 ckms to operational network with total network at 20,509 ckms.
• Fully operationalized Khavada Bhuj line.
• Received LOA for additional 17 lakh smart meters from MSEDCL with a revenue potential Rs 2,100 crore.
• The total smart metering pipeline at 22.8 mn across nine projects with contract value of Rs 27,200 crore.
• Distribution loss remains low at 5.09%; Maintained supply reliability of more than 99.9%.
• Sold 2,226 million units of power, up 5.98% YoY.
• Share of RE in Mumbai circle at 35%, and on track to achieve 60% by FY27. Anil Sardana Kandarp Patel #adani #energy #powerdistribution #discoms #smartmeters #amisp #rdss

[multibagger] 19/4/2024 06:38

Good morning DTB and all :)

All speculation and hypothesising on my part as I am trying to piece together a jigsaw without a reference picture ! It's a bit like fossil hunting and finding a fossil and trying then trying to work out from that what the dinosaur would have looked like !

I could be totally off the mark to be honest, but time will tell. I see it as hugely positive. War chests are needed to land and reel in big contracts and an appointment of a Joint Broker could sometimes signal that, but not always. M&A are another reason.

On the other hand, even if we get game changing news, the UK market is moribund at the moment like what we saw a few days ago on Tuesday, 16th April - normally that kind of news would have pushed up by 3p+ !

I am a patient long term holder so pretty sanguine about things I cannot control or influence.

Anyway, good luck all :)

[derek ten bag] 18/4/2024 21:02

Fantastic reply Multi and I am sure I speak for most of the others when I thank you for your very clear assessment of our current position. This does have the feel of a defining moment for CyanConnode of the type that doesn't come to many small companies. Let's hope that your assessment is accurate and we are on the cusp of real game-changing news.

[multibagger] 18/4/2024 19:55

Hi Bskiny1 and DTB:)

Re share price being held back - possibly some overhang from CRUX sale ? Markets are nervous about the Middle East no doubt.

1. With appt of a Joint Broker, a large corporate event is likely to be in the offing in the next 4-6 months. I personally think that it could an IPO of our Indian 100% owned subsidiary with CYAN still retaining the majority/controlling stake once we have an even better order pipeline in India and/or MENA. Speculation on my part no doubt, but too many strategic moves and all closely temporally connected to be a mere coincidence !

2. Could Adani+Esyasoft JV take us into their fold fully ?

3. Esyasoft do MDMS/HES mainly and now have a meter manufacturing unit but don't have their own a Comms solution. Adani have the financial might, political influence and have won about 24.089 million RDSS smart meter contracts so far. So we could become a part of a AMISP bidder with all the normally subcontracted contracts in house for India. (Not too dissimilar to where Genus seem to be at).

4. Al Fanar + Esyasoft + CYAN aggressively go after MENA contracts and office opening in UAE will make "wasta" easier.

Whatever is happening now is likely to be a lot bigger than what has gone before. Panmure willing to play joint fiddle with Zeus is in itself interesting - rather than displacing the incumbent.

Good luck all !

[derek ten bag] 18/4/2024 16:54

Hi bskiny1,
This guy doesn't have a theory, but whatever is going on I am certainly hoping it is highly positive for both the company and ourselves. We're here to make money after all and many of us have been in since the year dot. I am sincerely hoping that the next little while starts to deliver some very serious gains for us all, by whatever method it takes. But, given the buys over the last few days, the fact we are still below 9p suggests that your speculation may well be correct and the share price is being held back. Why that might be is way beyond my mental faculties to work out. It's all necromancy and my degree wasn't in necromancy.

[bskiny1] 18/4/2024 14:30

loads of buys this is being held down....any theories you guys in the know!!!

[derek ten bag] 18/4/2024 13:12

We are in interesting times CC-wise, ITT. I don't have a clue what's going on, to be honest, but if they were able to announce a really significant SFA and a couple more good orders, I would expect the share price could move up quite sharply and, if that were the case they could raise capital with much less dilution. Personally, I feel that JC and HP would be reluctant to go down the dilution route and that they will, if it's necessary to raise funds, try to investigate alternatives, whatever these might be. Certainly plenty of trades today. And yet the share price is down. We seem to be hitting a barrier at the moment. As for waiting too long to get in, I have had a couple of top-ups recently and really am fully invested. Overall, my average is pretty much where we are now. GL.

[inthetin] 18/4/2024 13:00

Hi DTB

I think that one or two are going to get caught out here thinking that a fundraise is inevitable and waiting too long to get in or add.

Even if there does end up being a raise, it could be at a premium - it has happened before.

I feel something more interesting is about to happen.

GL

ITT

[multibagger] 18/4/2024 12:00

Good morning DTB :)

Many thanks for your kind words. I probably read and make investment decisions differently from 99% of PIs as my time frames, patience and experience is different. I read the recent flurry of highly positive RNSs as confirmation of further growth and a further large beach head being established in the UAE.

This may need further funding and that is why we are a publicly listed company on the stock market. If companies are able to raise funds independently, they may not need to be listed on the market. Take multibillion dollar revenues Dyson for instance - they need no one's money.

This brings it back to the question of why additional funding is required - is it for mere survival or is it for growth ? Given we have heard that "materially exceeded market expectations" it reflects the latter. It is easy to argue that the company is not profitable and therefore potentially a basket case and investors are being taken for a ride.

A lot of people did not stay with an Amazon investment when it remained unprofitable for well over a decade but Bezos was investing and growing to make it the giant it is today. Bezos knew what he was doing even if the market did not agree with him in the short term. Amazon investors will be surely thanking him now !

I am an outlier and don't pay much attention to financial metrics - people sweat over these things, but a good accountant can make most financial statements palatable for whatever purpose. Just reading RNS about financial statements and deciding about investments, hide the issues of the likes of Enron, Wirecard, Patisserie Valerie, Redcentric, Tesco, Carillion etc - it is like paying attention only to the dashboard instruments and not seeing where we are actually heading !

I take a macro view and invest taking into account trends in technology, geopolitical movements, economic indicators and cycles, understand demographics, commodities etc. I plough what seems a lonely furrow but a very profitable one for me and don't need validation from BBs or posters.

CRUX was hit by fund redemptions apparently....which seems to be consistent with what I am hearing from other fund managers as well. BTW, Crux probably lost about 6p per share for their offload.

Maybe people can write to JC and ask if someone like PrimaryBid can be involved to give retail investors a chance to participate in any funding rounds in the future ?

Good luck all !

[inthetin] 18/4/2024 10:25

What's stopping them from sticking some (say 10%-20%) of CC India's shares on the Indian market and testing the water there?