Crest Nicholson Share Discussion Threads

[porsche1945] 17/10/2018 12:49

Just looking what the analysts had on these, even those deadbeats barclays had them at 4.40 a month ago, now of course all cutting frantically but so far behind the curve as to be laughable, WB really is right, there are those that dont know and those that dont know they that they dont know, analysts should really all be put to work doing something actually useful that would be a better use of their talents, like filling potholes on minimum wage. To anyone with half a brain Brexit is an utter disaster, will affect the UK for years, weak currency sucking in inflation and making everyone poorer, its just a fact, and you really think houses will be static or go up in that enviroment? Especially is the pathetic government cut the daft help to sell scheme.

[nigelpm] 17/10/2018 12:09

I tend to disagree with that as well but think house prices are about to get hammered in the South and London - I suspect there will be a good time to invest here but not yet.

[essentialinvestor] 17/10/2018 12:01

No, disagree with that. Very unlikely to be facing financial crisis lows again.

[porsche1945] 17/10/2018 11:58

Back to 2009, feels exactly the same, these will be down to pennies and then either taken over or taken private for pennies, dividend will be cut in half then cancelled. Management sold out their shares in this at start of year, tells you all you need to know, just like Superdry boss unloading months ago before share lost half their value....gotta be smart, if bosses are unloading why would you buy? For a high dividend but capital destruction is what stupid punters usually do. UK property gig well and truly over.

[nigelpm] 17/10/2018 11:57

A reminder that Tangible net asset value here will fluctuate as land/house prices move - certainly wouldn't ever be relying on it as a price not falling below it.

[montyhedge] 17/10/2018 11:38

Ok just signed up. Dividend maintain at all costs it seems.

[essentialinvestor] 17/10/2018 11:28

I can!. It's free to sign up to read, no paywall.

[zho] 17/10/2018 11:28

Hi montyhedge,

Anyone can read it if they sign up, for free. It's often interesting.

[montyhedge] 17/10/2018 11:27

Pidgley should go down the road and knock on Crests door. Only 4 miles away.

[montyhedge] 17/10/2018 11:25

No point posting that link, no one can read it.

[zho] 17/10/2018 11:21

Discussion at

[essentialinvestor] 17/10/2018 11:20

Thought it would be margins that would bite as previously mentioned.

You could perhaps make a case it's in the price, and if this
is the end of the downgrade cycle, may be it is.

Pidgley has called the top of the cycle at BKG, and he's called
every cycle I can remember bang on, going back to 1989.

[montyhedge] 17/10/2018 11:12

Sitting duck now for a bid.

[montyhedge] 17/10/2018 11:11

Dividend maintain, at least getting paid to ride out the slow down. Homes under 600,000 pounds seems no problem.

[lonrho] 17/10/2018 10:09

Not sure about early price being the right price, it was about twenty percent below tangible net asset value and according to crest there is 1.6 billion of gross margin inherent in the land bank which is not included in net assets.It is a sitting duck for a takeover but whether anyone will bid is a moot point.

[nigelpm] 17/10/2018 09:02

Surprised it's settled down only 7% - think the market got it right early on - quite a big change in sentiment here.

[1gw] 17/10/2018 08:59

Not quite a "buy on the news" reaction, but it looks like most of that was already in the price. Let's hope that's enough for some of the shorts to close.

It seems the board has reverted to the "A" team with Stone reprising his executive role and Bergin focusing on the financials.

[nerdofsteel] 17/10/2018 08:47

Bought at 310p, P/E and dividend yield and cover look good, and mcap now below NAV

[rcturner2] 17/10/2018 08:28

You've done well with that price.

I see from the press that they are attempting to ensure that 2018/19 full year is no worse than this year, which if achieved will underpin the share price.

[value hound] 17/10/2018 08:08

Bought a few just over 276p FWIW; looks overdone to me.

[kamitora] 17/10/2018 07:55

Liberum downgrades to hold with a price target of 331

[linton5] 17/10/2018 07:48

Glad I held off yday but definately buying on the drop this morning

[rcturner2] 17/10/2018 07:44

I think orinocor is right though it will be what next year holds that is important.

This year eps is probably 50p so the PE is 6 at current prices and the dividend is well covered.

[jonwig] 17/10/2018 07:37

@ orinocor - yes. H1 was £75m so forecast for H2 has fallen from £130m to between £95m and £115m.

[jurgenklopp] 17/10/2018 07:32

This is the dog in the sector. The divi will just about placate holders whilst they wait for an upturn in fortunes.