Costain Share Discussion Threads

[catabrit] 20/12/2023 11:11

Do not mind you knocking and nor do I mind you being weary. Think the latter is absolutely understandable by the way! But it is good to lay down these markers, no?

[casholaa] 20/12/2023 10:57

I'd rather they tried to convince me with numbers. (I'm not knocking it, just weary)

[catabrit] 20/12/2023 10:52

Yeah well the chart sucked pre November and a few people felt smart for selling when it dipped down to 48p. So yeah, that is my view on charts. They look right until they don’t.

Consensus is very helpful as it shows you what the analysts are assuming. Which is useful when you’re woefully undervalued and inflecting.

Oh and if you care about charts then IMHO the only chart that matters is the one from July 22 and that looks consistent and beautiful :)

[casholaa] 20/12/2023 10:44

Careful, the chart looks a bit pumped-up to me and now, I can't understand why they'd want to add a 'section on consensus'?????

[pinemartin9] 15/12/2023 18:52

Well done holders. A few of us have been here for a while, looks good here. Improving margins, dividends being paid and (hopefully) contract wins coming through. One of the main catalysts has been the fact we've put some of our legacy loss making contracts behind us.

[ttny2004] 15/12/2023 17:26

Well done, and agree about 2024 and think we will finish 2024 in surplus of 100p

[roguemale1] 09/12/2023 13:12

Yep, best get Cardiff rugby club onside eh? And don't agree to + - 0.5 degrees on aircon!
Mind you by the time Ray did the deal they had a lot of cash squirreled away in all the jobs...

I just feel that one or two of the tier one concrete farmers will be looking at the current price and wondering if they have the cojones to try it....just a musing. Then again they've all had a battering from fixed prices and/or the CMA so maybe I'm just being romantic...

[muckshifter] 09/12/2023 12:13

Hope you're right about the quid by end of March Roguemale1, and although Costain have a lot of history in the middle east I can't see a takeover coming from there, or anywhere else for that matter while the company is trying to make serious changes to the balance of its workload - maybe a year or more from now it might be a target.

The "terrible tangle" Costain got into looks to me very similar to the one Laing got themselves into some years ago. Laing were always the "clever" contractor when I was young, doing prestige difficult jobs, and they got too "clever" and over confident ending up taking two huge contracts on dangerous contract terms which effectively finished them. Costain, in those days, were also known as a top rank contractor, so perhaps they fell into the same trap.

Recovery periods have always served me well with contractors and I'm fairly confident that the recovery will here.

[masurenguy] 09/12/2023 11:10

Interesting - no current position.

Costain Group
The Telegraph
Shareholders haven’t forgiven this infrastructure specialist since it “got itself into a terrible tangle” with two projects a few years ago, forcing it to seek £100m in extra equity in 2020. But the shares are now heavily discounted on ten times forecast earnings. Indeed, after adjusting for pensions and leases, the £167m in net cash on the balance sheet actually exceeded the market capitalisation at 28 November. The shares are priced for further disappointments, so even a small improvement in performance and margins could now offer decent upside. 57p

[roguemale1] 08/12/2023 16:12

My birthday is end of March.
My opinion currently a quid or a takeover by then after results.... am still worried about a low ball takeover, the UAe boys notwithstanding.
We shall see.
Have a good weekend all!

[catabrit] 08/12/2023 10:25

That is high roller chat Rogue and I love it! Haha.

I think we stand good odds of hitting a three digit share price by the end of 2024.

[roguemale1] 08/12/2023 09:32

And I'll be comfortable when it has a 9 in front of it!

[pinemartin9] 07/12/2023 14:37

Looks like the share price is getting comfortable with a 6 in front of it.

[chris magpie] 05/12/2023 17:00

Still think will depend alot on how Order Book looks at year end as currently well below last few years but hopefully they can hit or exceed target EBIT for 2023 and return some confidence to turn around in fortunes. Sadly this business still full of low margin contracts and if one or two turn bad you are stuffed. But think Costain in better shape theses past two years so hopefully profit will start to increase as a % of Turnover.

[grahamburn] 05/12/2023 10:27

Brief mention in this

[catabrit] 02/12/2023 01:02

To paraphrase Buzz Lightyear;

To 120p and beyond!

I jest. I am sure it will ebb and flow but I think we’re looking good for a very big year in 2024.

I want to say congrats but to be honest, we’re very early innings in the rebound here so I’ll save that for when we breach 100p.

Considering the fundamentals, I think a few people will be kicking themselves for not going long when this was trading at / below net cash. So it goes!

Let’s see. The thread is a good historical record.

Cheers guys.

[this_is_me] 01/12/2023 21:15

This is looking like a serious breakout now.

I've had mine for just over a year so I am very pleased - good timing for once.

[ttny2004] 30/11/2023 15:16

Yes, there she blows.Been well overdue.Like fishing. Good things come to the patient although it has certainly tested my patience over the last couple of years.

[pinemartin9] 30/11/2023 15:06

Major breakout!

[sphere25] 30/11/2023 14:12

It might be through key resistance this with the price at 62.4p.

It is still early though. This moves like SRC, they both do similar things where you have lumpy and sharp moves on no volume, and the order book can look strong like it is looking now (stacked at 61p on the bid in increments to 62.2p), but then it can turn and all change with the price sticking its head above resistance and the price falling back down.

But it looks like it has a chance here.

Don't breathe!

All imo
DYOR

[roguemale1] 30/11/2023 08:53

Hi Catabrit, yeah enjoy. I'm heading back UK tomorrow.
Holding core and added back a few actually a couple of days ago.
As far as I can glean all steady as she goes on sites. A possible trip hazard on one of the road jobs now good.
Hopefully some new money coming in will keep it easing forwards towards YE.
Cheers all.

[catabrit] 30/11/2023 04:49

Note to self: must head to Himalayas more often. It has proven to be very accretive from a net worth perspective.

Greetings all from 5,000m. Nice to see this close to breaching 60p again. I vaguely recall my 2023 year end target price was 63p so I hope we get close to it as we head into Christmas. Pretty indifferent to be honest because if we don’t breach it this year, we’ll breach it after March FY23 earnings. Anyway, great to see that some of you (TC, Rogue, Pine etc) are still here and holding :)

Gokyo ri awaits! Cheers guys.

[boystown] 29/11/2023 17:33

A snippet from Master Investor FWIW:

Costain Group (LON:COST) – Could Finally Be On The Way Back
I was pleased to see that the Investment Director of stockbroking group AJ Bell was highlighting the investment attractions of this infrastructure construction group.

In Tuesday’s edition of The Daily Telegraph, Russ Mould used his Questor Stock Picks column to feature Costain Group – pointing out that it had £167m of cash in its coffers compared to its market capitalisation of only £160m.

He mentioned that the group had an order pipeline of some £1.5bn, where it already had preferred bidder status.

In reaction to his bullish article the group’s shares hit 60.80p, up 4p, before closing 5.51% better on the day at 59.80p.

In late August I Profiled the company again, having failed twice before to score on my Target Prices.

I stated that the group’s shares were too low to be ignored by any investor looking for the UK to correct its economy and its infrastructure as well.

Noting at the time that buying the shares at the then 50p, where they stood at 4.4 times current year earnings and an even lower 4.1 times the 2024 estimates, could well see them look to achieve the 62p that they reached earlier in April this year.

Russ Mould is right – these shares are for buying.

[thags] 29/11/2023 08:04

Or will we fall back down to 50p. You just don't know with this one. It is a triple top so could go either way