Costain Share Discussion Threads

[pinemartin9] 08/11/2023 18:50

Well that's a very disappointing fall back from 60p to 47p. Circa 20% fall on lack of contract wins, general market sentiment and lack of belief in the recovery, despite stellar results not so long ago. At least I got my modest dividend. Wish I'd sold the lot at 60p. If I had I'd sure as he'll be buying them back down here.

[boonkoh] 06/11/2023 11:47

£15m/yr only..... There's a reason why there was not even an RCS released.

[siggs44] 06/11/2023 11:19

https://twitter.com/CostainGroup/status/1721486359083335955?t=TvIMBzxOyoHNQ92EEP6wfA&s=19Good news

[muckshifter] 06/11/2023 09:38

Two reasons spring to mind: If you look at bulletin boards in terms of construction companies over the last year or so, there have been lots of posts going on and on about huge levels of inflation and small margins, mostly from people who have very little knowledge of construction contracts.

Secondly, because I believe most posters unfamiliar with construction contracts think that the Peterborough power, and Welsh road, contracts were fixed price.

[catabrit] 05/11/2023 14:41

If so, why stress the lack of fixed price at every opportunity.

[muckshifter] 05/11/2023 12:30

Don't think that the contracts which caused them such pain in the past couple of years were "fixed price".

[catabrit] 05/11/2023 10:53

It could be anything, a redemption from one of the larger funds perhaps. Someone just throwing in the towel and reallocating towards cash or fixed income or higher yielding equities. You just never know. Curious to see where we open tomorrow.

Most likely is that it’s nothing and business as usual. I mean it’s not far off from the amount of shares I personally own and I’m a nobody.

Regarding the share price it is hard for me to believe we gap down to below net cash. I just don’t think the uncertainty with Costain’s story exists as much as it did in 2021/2022. The chartists can say what they want and I’m not trying to tarnish their trade as there’s a lot of good that comes out of technical analysis. But below net cash just feels too penal considering what management have publicly come out and told us re margins, no more fixed price contracts, depth and quality of work, dividend, pension agreement etc. None of that was known a year ago - it was all inference.

Either way, I’m off to the Himalayas this month and the wifi in the Khumbhu is patchy at best so I hope that when I get back I see something starting with a 6 but I won’t be holding my breath!

[roguemale1] 05/11/2023 08:54

Its 1% of the total equity-but a lot higher % of shares actually likely to be available to trade (assuming the institutions and Dubai aren't trading)...

I was idly looking through listing of large shareholders on Morningstar, and it lists Helen Willis as holding 6.05m shares?!!?? Not sure if that's some kind of FD technicality (maybe company held stock??) but I've never seen it reported that she has bought any-been given a few but not that many?

[roguemale1] 04/11/2023 18:02

Nice to see the city can buy that many and not move the price huh?
Business as usual.

[disc0dave46] 04/11/2023 16:38

Thanks for info

[thags] 04/11/2023 14:45

About bloody time it did something, I've seen Paint dry quicker than this move

[roguemale1] 04/11/2023 12:56

Somethings happening...Anybody see the 2.7m shares in 5 late reported trades yesterday?

Either this is finally going to go or someone is going to buy it cheap!

[catabrit] 31/10/2023 11:10

CP7 has been confirmed. Article below.

After more than two years of industry and stakeholder engagement and analysis, the Office of Road and Rail (ORR), the independent regulator that oversees Network Rail’s activity, today announced its final determination.

This sets out what the ORR expects to see delivered within the funding available following its assessment of Network Rail’s plans for the next five-year control period – CP7 (1 April 2024 to 31 March 2029).

Andrew Haines, Network Rail chief executive, said: “The rail sector enjoys an almost unique level of funding certainty and that is a privilege that comes with serious responsibilities. More than £43 billion will be spent over the next five years to deliver a safer and better railway for passengers and freight customers. Today’s announcement gives clarity and certainty for the railway and our supply chain partners and will now enable us to continue building on our detailed delivery plans.

“The UK and Scottish Governments’ funding commitment and today’s news is a significant vote of confidence in the industry’s future. The impact of inflation, tight public finances, and the need to invest more to manage the impact of more frequent extreme weather on the infrastructure does mean that our funding will need to go further than ever before.

“Throughout CP7 we are committing to delivering extensive investments across the length and breadth of the network. In addition to improvements to safety, we’ll work to boost train performance, usher in new technologies, invest significantly more funds to tackle climate change as well as make £3.6 billion of efficiency savings.”

Following today’s announcement, Network Rail will now carefully review the detail of the regulator’s determination, continue the planning work to develop its detailed CP7 delivery plan by the end of March 2024.

[catabrit] 30/10/2023 21:04

I have been shopping in recent weeks and it has been an interesting exercise. Many things are down and cheap and with low expectations for a reason. Here, we are crazy cheap with low expectations and yet the fundamentals are improving. It is totally bizarre. I suspect it is the lack of a decent dividend yield coupled with no buybacks that is holding this back.

[ny boy] 27/10/2023 16:26

The support levels are 43p & 34p dyor

Automatic technical analysis. Medium term, Oct 26, 2023
Costain Group PLC has broken through the floor of a rising trend channel in the medium long term. This indicates a slower rising rate at first, or the start of a more horizontal development. The stock has met the objective at 53.32 after a break of the rectangle formation. The price has now fallen, but the formation indicates further rise. The stock has support at pence 43.00 and resistance at pence 59.50. The short term momentum of the stock is strongly negative, with RSI below 30. This indicates increasing pessimism among investors and further decline for Costain Group PLC.

[catabrit] 27/10/2023 16:22

Hopefully we have hit a floor at net cash.

[pinemartin9] 27/10/2023 15:11

Got my dividend today. Scant consolation for the recent downturn.

[catabrit] 26/10/2023 14:59

The spread sucks right now.

[thags] 24/10/2023 12:17

personally I wouldn't mind if it did happen so I can average down further. Nothing better than buying a true undervalued stock and waiting patiently for the market to re-rate

[catabrit] 24/10/2023 11:51

That all sounds like voodoo to me Thags. If this drops to 30p I will be shocked. Low probability in my opinion as the conditions that permitted that prior low (no dividend, uncertainty around fixed price contract exposure, pension matching, margins etc etc) no longer exist. You can’t rule it out but I feel it unlikely.

[thags] 24/10/2023 11:45

according to the chart and momentum we are likely to see a minimum retrace down to 45p then a potential left shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern forming that could take us down to 30p. imagine that playing out

[catabrit] 24/10/2023 11:19

I am seeing an increasing amount of take privates at decent premiums. SCS Group got taken out today at a big premium. If we keep languishing at net cash, the odds are high something happens here. And if nothing happens, we’ve all got to ask ourselves why. Because it suggests the business fundamentals are much weaker or riskier than we believe.

[roguemale1] 20/10/2023 15:09

Catabrit, are you referring there to the Sellafield lads on strike?
I wouldn't worry generally. The only time you get strikes in this sector is on very large projects eg Hinkley, Crossrail, etc and more so on the M and E side of things. The labourers, carps, fixers etc sort themselves in the market as most self employed. The only picket line I have ever had to cross in 40 years was the Jubilee line and that was the sparks....
There is downward pressure if anything in wages for say carpenters at the moment because of the slowdown in resi work.

[salpara111] 20/10/2023 09:54

While I exited as per my earlier posts at 59p, I would be surprised to see it drop through the 45 line again.
I am still watching this and would look to re-enter around 46/47.
Over 30 years of investing I have gradually ditched the "buy and hold" investing strategy, if you want to do that then you may as well just buy index tracker funds and go enjoy your life.
Its impossible to time your entry and exit perfectly but my own results show that I can improve my returns by dipping in and out of individual stocks.

[casholaa] 20/10/2023 09:26

Hopefully they'll put themselves forward for re-designing Ukraine & Gaza