Costain Share Discussion Threads

[chelseamann] 23/8/2023 07:36

the board is considering a divvy payment with an update asap....surely this is the news we all wanted

[chelseamann] 22/8/2023 13:27

where's mystic peg when you need her !!!

[casholaa] 22/8/2023 12:22

Can't wait to see the numbers tomorrow.

[pinemartin9] 22/8/2023 12:16

Very low volumes for the last 5 weeks or so. Moving averages finely poised. I expect solid results and confirmation of the turnaround, hopefully attracting new buyers in and a push north of 60p.

[chelseamann] 22/8/2023 11:01

lets hope so but my other major watch is Card Factory who are going great guns now and have interims in sept so if Costain don't come to life by end of August iam out i think (i lack patience which is a must for Costain shareholders). But iam hopeful for a few pence rise tomorrow and maybe a bit more after Thursdays Investor Meet

[catabrit] 22/8/2023 10:20

Yes but I think they’ve done it in the right way (so far). First, steady the ship / remodel the house. Then get the valuation. It seems like the business is on the right footing so management now need to focus on getting the valuation up. We’re seeing glimpses of that commitment via investor meet and hopefully shrewd capital allocation and we’ve just got to hope that gets reflected in the stock soon. If it doesn’t, then it’s strategic review time.

[chelseamann] 22/8/2023 09:53

the share price has been in a coma for far too long and needs something to kick start it back to life

[catabrit] 22/8/2023 09:45

Alex did buy a lot of stock in the rights issue at 60p odd. The bulk of his wealth lies in Costain shares via the LTIP so I do think he’s aligned with us. It would be nice to see him buy shares - likewise Helen - but I don’t think that’s going to move the share price What will move the share price is smart capital allocation and I know with a 99.9999% certainty that there is a significant amount of pressure behind the scenes to return capital to shareholders and a bit of a divide amongst the key shareholder base on whether that should be done via buybacks or dividends. The smart money is itching for buybacks considering how accretive it would be to our NAV / intrinsic value.

[chelseamann] 22/8/2023 08:48

I expect the results to be positive and heading in the right direction even if they report a reduced order book but what disappoints me is that in the last 12 months i have bought more shares than Alex Vaughan so it would be nice to see all the top brass putting their hands in their pockets tomorrow

[casholaa] 17/8/2023 14:16

Cata, that's pretty much it, except for things like bby 'getting hammered', was it as there is no work to bid on or that the work was awarded elsewhere? Personally, I wouldn't want Costain to waste their time energy and resources on low margins.

[catabrit] 17/8/2023 13:34

Share prices rise and fall depending on whether reality meets, exceeds or falls short of expectations. I think it’s fair to say that at 46p odd, expectations here are very low and thus any good news - on buybacks, dividends, net cash, free cash flow, margins and the order book - will be well received. Management and IR have guided for the order book to be essentially flat over the coming years and what we know is that they’re very conservative.

There’s probably a lot of stretch in that order book both on the down and the up and if I had to hazard a guess, I’d say there’s more in the latter.

Look no further than the GHD deal recently announced. Not an RNS because Costain provision for things based on certainty - not probability. There’s a lot of potential in that contract and the upside could be significant depending on who gets what.

Provided there’s no claim on the net cash, I think it acts as a firm floor on probable downside and the great thing for us is that it’s growing by £20m a year odd.

Volumes have been very weak as it’s summer and the whole U.K. small cap market is in the doldrums at the minute so I don’t think it’s wise to draw too many conclusions from the muted share price

All IMHO and I could easy be wrong.

[salpara111] 17/8/2023 13:07

Disappointing to see BBY getting hammered yesterday apparently due to the drop in the order book.
As I've said before I'm here because I expect them to announce a return to paying a dividend. If that does not happen I am worried that there will be a drop in the share price

[casholaa] 16/8/2023 10:53

Look's like they are trying to address the lack of communication outflow

[catabrit] 16/8/2023 10:50

Just had it confirmed by IR - this is the company’s first investor meet Q&A. They’re doing it because they have a lot of retail investors. I think this is a good step to addressing the disconnect in the share price vs the intrinsic value.

[roguemale1] 16/8/2023 10:44

I dont recall one no. Theres no RNS for last year at that ppoint.

[catabrit] 16/8/2023 10:36

Quick question for LT holders - is that Costain’s first investor meet presentation? I only started buying these about a year ago so missed the last H1 earnings presentation.

[roguemale1] 16/8/2023 10:16

Yep 23rd for results, 24th for the Q and A.

How about "Helen, please can you buy a few shares with your own money?"

[casholaa] 16/8/2023 10:10

HY on 23 Aug I think. Look's like a bumpy ride for the next week. Including today, that's 6 trading days.

P.S please tell me if I got the date wrong.

[roguemale1] 16/8/2023 10:07

Good results from Balfours today, no doubt underpinned by rinsing Hinkley...doesnt seem to have washed through to here yet.
Anybody submitting a question to the Q and A after interims?

[catabrit] 12/8/2023 22:21

The vast majority of stocks that trade below net cash aren’t profitable - let alone FCF generating - on an underlying business. That includes Nano. The market rightly assumes some cash burn. There are loads and loads of biotechs and others trading at below net cash but they’re way more speculative than Costain.

[catabrit] 11/8/2023 18:08

Since the rights issue and contract issues, Costain typically gaps down heading into earnings. It’s annoying but it is what it is. I think / hope that we’ll break that trend once we start proving that the business has moved on.

If the shares weren’t publicly traded and we just had the string of good and bad news that we’ve had since March, I don’t think it would be valued at £130m odd. The re-fi, contract wins, pension settlement more than offset the loss of one contract that wasn’t even in the order book and has zero bearing on 2023 targets.

I hope they tender 10-20% of the shares at 60p to get rid of this silly technical overhang so that we can power ahead to a valuation that’s more rational.

[catabrit] 11/8/2023 18:01

If this thing hits 30p again - a valuation just north of 60% of net cash on the balance sheet with underlying FCF profitability - I will personally run from Bank to Piccadilly Circus stark naked, gift my reduced NAV to woke causes and spend the rest of my days in a Himalayan monastery.

[the count] 11/8/2023 14:12

--->THAGS

Really?

So what market cap would it be at 30p?

And remind us how much cash is in the bank as well.

And are they expecting to report losses on their trading?

TC!