Costain Share Discussion Threads

[wolfofhounslow] 16/4/2023 20:42

Hi disco, there will be an impact!!Whether we like it or not

[disc0dave45] 16/4/2023 20:02

M6 works are to continue until completion and the M56 works have been delivered.What future SMP alliance works have they tendered for?

[sikhthetech] 16/4/2023 19:52

Casholaa
"Hopefully they'll pay us to put things back as they were"


The govn has said existing SM stay so no contracts to put things back. The impact is on future pipeline. What other projects will be axed or postponed to save money?.

[wolfofhounslow] 16/4/2023 19:39

There will be massive impact on future pipeline of contracts for costain!!

[catabrit] 16/4/2023 17:49

I like spooky.

[casholaa] 16/4/2023 17:39

Cheaper in the long run to put things back as they were. Hopefully they'll pay us to put things back as they were as the traffic deaths occurred on stretches already completed.

[owenski] 16/4/2023 16:15

Guaranteed the government always wastes tax payers money.... They save 100m in a project by spending 200m on shutting it down.

[casholaa] 16/4/2023 14:38

The Government has to leave motorways in a safe state for users. They'll have to pay to undo their motorway smartness... The Government will be smarting from this come election time

[spooky] 16/4/2023 14:33

Some of you guys really are desperate for the shares to go down. Are you short are just eager buyers dreaming of a lower entry point?

[sikhthetech] 16/4/2023 13:55

gregpack
"I think the wider point is here which you are missing is not smart motorways per se. It is the govt pulling back infrastructure spend and boasting about the savings."

Exactly. It's not just Smart Motorways.

There you go, current projects getting cancelled.


sikhthetech - 19 Mar 2023 - 21:39:36 - 2480 of 2732 Costain - COST
Catabrit,

"In a challenging market, you want stability and predictability of revenue. Costain and other infrastructure companies tied to big projects have this. None of the current projects are going to get switched off tomorrow."

I agree in a challenging environment companies want and need stability and big projects.
That's my point though, parts of HS2 have been delayed and cancelled. So in this challenging environment there is no stability and predictability.
<...>


sikhthetech - 19 Mar 2023 - 14:44:17 - 2471 of 2732
The banking crisis is snowballing, started with smaller US banks and now Credit Suisse..

With the banking crisis, govn having to cut back, inflationary pressures, I think there will still be further turmoil in the markets. I wouldn't like to be in banks, house builders, hospitality, or construction at the moment.

[thags] 16/4/2023 12:48

Does anyone know how to attach a chart to this thread, can't seem to figure it out

[thags] 16/4/2023 12:46

I'm seeing a pullback to the 47-48p area then resistance turns support and we move on up again according to the chart. Bearish divergences have been building and playing out now. So 47-48p may be a good area to take a position or add to one

[disc0dave45] 16/4/2023 12:19

Having read the BBC article it does indeed look like there will be zero impact on current contracts - as for their future contracts, hopefully they will confirm.

“The construction of two stretches of smart motorway from junctions six to eight on the M56, and from 21a to 26 on the M6, will continue as they are already more than three quarters complete.”

[disc0dave45] 16/4/2023 12:13

The only current works connected with the SMP (Smart Motorways Programme) that's mentioned in their AR 2022 is as follows:"With the SMP Alliance, our work delivering the M6 junction 21a-26 smart motorway upgrades continues, and we delivered infrastructure for cameras to detect stopped vehicles, and safety improvements to the central reserve on M62 junction 25-30."So how much works outstanding on the M6 J21a-26 ?IMO the works won't simply be halted but possibly completed, or I'm guessing there will be some liquidated damages / compensation clauses in the contract so perhaps not a major concern - hopefully the business will confirm at some point.

[disc0dave45] 16/4/2023 11:55

GregCan you please confirm what current (and live) smart motorway contracts Costain are involved in, thanks.Does anyone really know what the impact will be?From what I've looked at Costain's smart motorway works included sections of the M1 and M6 which look to have already been completed (going on the estimated timeframes and award of contracts but I'm no expert).

[gregpeck7] 16/4/2023 11:36

Costain are associated with smart motorways . I don't think there will be an share price collapse but I do think there will be a negative reaction Monday in the 3 to 8 percent type range

[casholaa] 16/4/2023 11:23

Errr... I see things yet a different way. Once we are given the actual reason for cancelling these things, it might well be that the Government will have to pay to undo some stretches of motorway smartness

[catabrit] 16/4/2023 10:52

I agree Greg but it’s no different to the order book mate. Are ‘more’ orders / contracts better? Or is ‘quality’; of order book what matters? I don’t know? Combination of the two perhaps?

Everyone thinks more is better but that’s not necessarily the right conclusion. People can get fat and lazy and take crazy risks in a bull market when the main customer is spending like mad.

Personally, I think it’s great that the pie is getting more scrutiny. It means tax payers are going to get more value for money and the players focusing on the schemes that should get built, will get paid.

The more worrying thing in Costain’s case (potentially) is that the government starts inching away from its digitisation strategy or makes some big cuts to the management consultancy work it seeks. That’s something we obviously need to look out for.

Net net we’d all probably prefer a pie that’s getting bigger but I just don’t think it’s as simple as “government is cutting back, sell Costain and other infrastructure providers”. Perhaps some others that are bigger and more richly valued will suffer the most. Or others that have bid on dubious schemes. It’s hard to say.

[gregpeck7] 16/4/2023 10:27

I think the wider point is here which you are missing is not smart motorways per se. It is the govt pulling back infrastructure spend and boasting about the savings. That's a change.

[casholaa] 16/4/2023 10:07

I could never see the point in sm's given that driverless cars are on the way. If they can switch people on smart meters to prepayment electronically, they can surely tell the car at what speed to go.

[gregpeck7] 16/4/2023 09:26

I don't hold so not overly bothered but if you Google costain and smart motorways there's a lot of matches for various contracts

[owenski] 16/4/2023 09:06

Lead contractor on what exactly, just asking.

New 'SM's are cancelled, some existing upgrades are still going ahead ie M6. Road improvement schemes are still going ahead.