Condor Gold Share Discussion Threads

[jeanesy2] 19/12/2014 09:38

You can sell no problem today. 65.5 and 67 is true spread today. Perhaps this will encourage more to buy ?

[saturdaygirl] 19/12/2014 09:29

SP

Sold some earlier averaging down a little ..

Can it go up now please ?

[serious punter] 19/12/2014 08:57

SG - T20 or were you lucky enough to get T25? Best wishes.

[saturdaygirl] 19/12/2014 08:41

Those two 10k`s were me !

[molatovkid] 19/12/2014 08:30

Our 'round figure' buyer kicks in early....loads of 5k's and 10k's been bought over the last few weeks.

[jeanesy2] 19/12/2014 08:26

A couple of nice 10k buys to start the day.

[john6185] 18/12/2014 17:26

Well the anticipated delivery crunch/default hasn't transpired yet on COMEX.I wonder how many gold and silver contracts with December delivery that Russia holds. They could say screw the us$ by triggering a delivery default the would likely vastly increase the value of their sovereign precious metal reserves.Of course they still have a lot of us t-bills. But I'm wondering what a large wounded bear does when its oil price dependent economy starts falling apart. Just speculation on what options they may have in addressing this petrodollar decline.

[saturdaygirl] 18/12/2014 17:09

Todays trading

I think you have to go back to last nights GDXJ trading , the chart formed a double bottom rising over 6% into the close .This morning the MM`s marked up CNR and other miners at 63/67 yet as the ask reached 68.3 around midday it became impossible to get a sell quote I believe till the MM`s knew which way the US would open .Once it became apparent the US was going know where the MM`s opened and dropped the bid trapping todays buyers with the bid ending at 62.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[jeanesy2] 18/12/2014 15:48

I tried a dummy sell earlier and it wouldnt quote me a price either. I can now sell within the spread although it is quite a big spread. Not sure anything has happened that would explain this unless a big sell order has been worked that we dont know about yet ?

[rfv] 18/12/2014 15:35

I have no doubt that the share price is tracking the POG. As most of us know the fundementals of this company are sound. Presently the share price will only rise if gold improves or if there is a buyout. (Look at oil stocks today exactly the same pattern) Patience needed here - the gold will not vanish.

[usmcgs] 18/12/2014 14:29

Looks like some has just been buying, selling and repeating. I have been finding it very difficult to sell within the spread and as I type it is coming down again.

This is most unlike the CNR we all love

[usmcgs] 18/12/2014 12:26

Still difficult to sell within the spread. Strange considering the amounts bought

[usmcgs] 18/12/2014 08:56

Seems to be rising relatively quickly now but won't let you sell much within the spread

[molatovkid] 18/12/2014 08:22

Whilst the drop in share price doesn't help the portfolio value, it is normally only temporary and if you have funds, it presents an attractive buying opportunity.

Either way, I think most of us are awaiting one of 3 scenarios; a takeover, we go into production - or some combination of the 2 with a partner. None of these 3 scenarios have disappeared so onward we go.

[usmcgs] 17/12/2014 14:09

Andrew

That was from Jibbo and I think it is only harebridge that cares

I am surprised we have heard nothing from MC on what is happening and when the drill will start to turn again

[sir andrew ffoulkes] 17/12/2014 10:34

Courtsey of a poster on LSE, a useful reminder:

1. There are only 45.7 million shares in issue. At the current £0.63p/share the M'Cap is just £28 million and is significantly discounted to the current NAV of £1.10 (Numis) and the NPV of £2.50p per share as per the PFS. Mark Child owns more than 9% of the company so has plenty of 'skin in the game' and Regent Pacific, an investment vehicle for renowned entrepreneurs Jim Mellon and Stephen Dattels have bought 10% of the company at £1.60p/share after conducting significant due diligence - a significant vote of confidence in the project. CNR recently received another major vote of confidence in the form of a maiden investment at 90p by the IFC, following considerable due diligence, as part of a successful fund raising which saw CNR raise $10 million, despite the current credit crunch. The IFC has made it clear that it intends to support CNR going forward and to be heavily involved in funding the CAPEX requirements for building the mine.

2. CNR has 2.33 million oz of high grade gold in one location at 3.9g/t, which is three times the industry average (1.08m oz of Indicated) and is one of very few resources of that size and grade in the world. The La India District has been increased in size by 44% to an impressive 280 km2 of highly prospective land (as shown by the geophysics results and the ongoing trenching programme). With funds in the bank a new drill programme is due to start soon with the aim of increasing the Indicated ounces in the three open pits and also to drill beneath the very encouraging trenches dug on the Real de la Cruz concession, which has the potential to be developed into another major open pit.

3. Metallurgical tests have produced an excellent recovery rate of between 92 to 98%. That compares very favourably with other low cost producers such as MML 89% and AR. 90%.

4. CNR already has the biggest resource in mining friendly Nicaragua, despite the presence of B2Gold, which is well established in the country and is also highly profitable. CNR's La India district holds at least 5 million ounces, but probably a lot more and the broker Ocean Equities has suggested that although CNR already has a 2.4 million oz resource, the company has just been 'chiselling at the tip of the (gold) iceberg at La India'.

5. The recent PFS highlighted three production scenarios which include the potential to produce over 1.2 Moz over a 12 year LOM with average annual production of 137,500 oz gold for initial 8 years. The economics detailed in the PFS are very robust:

• An IRR of 24% and a post-tax NPV of US$187 million at a discount rate of 5% and gold price of US$1,250/oz (equivalent to £2.50 per share). Exceptional all-in Sustaining Costs of US$697 per oz gold and low initial capital requirement of US$169 million (including contingency).

It is no wonder that CNR is now being talked about as a likely takeover target as evidenced by the following link hxxp://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/florian-siegfried-seeking-less-risky-business-in-mining-m-a and also by an article in the Investor’s Chronicle in which they placed CNR second among their top pick for a takeover.•

.
6. Recent Numis comment: ‘One of the most impressive aspects of the project is the excellent infrastructure - tarred roads and power lines run through the La India concession and there's a hydro dam nearby. Walking the ground we got to see first-hand the sheer size of the epithermal vein system in the district, most of which remains untested. The potential for extensions, hidden deposits and new vein sets in an under-explored high grade system, coupled with the excellent infrastructure is extremely compelling. Add to that a supportive pro-mining government, and our parting thought was that this is a project full of tick marks not red flags'.

[sir andrew ffoulkes] 17/12/2014 09:58

IF CNR were to go on 'care and maintenance' only they'd have enough cash for 4 years. they will be spending towards further drilling and a BFS, so we are looking at 12-18 months in all likelihood.

I'm expecting several confidentiality agreements with potential suitors to be signed in H1 2015. To sell or JV has always been on the cards, we are unlikely to go it alone to a production scenario.

[wilco1000] 16/12/2014 22:31

Not a holder here and only admiring from afar but seems hard to understand the recent fall particularly given the strong recent news regarding La India.

Based on my calcs and using current cash burn, the company should have enough cash to get them to H1 2017 although outgoings could ramp up in anticipation of construction starting.

Trying to work out a reason for the fall and rarely invest if I don't know what that reason is - in this case i'm struggling! No severe political upheavals in Nicaragua as far as I'm aware, gold price is volatile but still comfortably above the AISC and the general prospects appear good. Can only assume like many other gold stocks CNR have been excessively hammered.

Any ideas on the earliest predictions for when mining will commence?

[sir andrew ffoulkes] 16/12/2014 15:50

Well said, "a Casino of the Bizarre"

[sir andrew ffoulkes] 15/12/2014 16:11

There are potentially a handful of suitors looking at CNR, we will probably see some very early stage M&A activity (ie signing of Confidentiality Agreements) with a number of them in due course. MC has already made it clear what he wants to happen with CNR (albeit he can hardly place a for sale board above us), patience is the order of the day and those who buy in the next few weeks will likely see quite substantial gains.

Interesting, CNR mentioned here:




TGR: Are there other likely takeover targets?

FS: There is another AIM-listed company called Condor Gold Plc (CNR:LSE). It just released a prefeasibility study (PFS) and updated preliminary economic assessment (PEA) for its La India project in Nicaragua. It has 2.33 Moz at 3.9 grams per ton (3.9 g/t), and that includes 1.14 Moz at 3.1 g/t in an open pit, which is very high these days. Management has skin in the game and holds 9% of the company and it is leanly managed.

With the recent financing, the International Financial Corp. (IFC) entered the picture as a strategic partner. That's a commitment that should help to further reduce political risk. In its PFS, Condor looks at a 0.8 million tons per year (0.8 Mtpa) open-pit mine with an annual production of 79,300 oz gold over seven years considering a front load capex of $110M and all-in sustaining costs of $690/oz. Then in the updated PEA there are two options to build La India. One is to include additional feeder pits for a 1.2 Mtpa plant with a capital requirement of $127M and an annual production of 96,800 oz over a 8-year mine life at similar all-in costs. The other option would include the underground resource, a $170M capex and an annual production of 137,000 oz over a 12-year mine life.

Is it going to be a higher capital cost, higher-production scenario or a lower-capital cost, lower-production scenario? The company wants to be viewed as positively as possible. It is basically saying, "This project has all kinds of optionality, it has strong financing backed by the IFC and it's close to infrastructure." Management gives me the impression that this project is for sale, but not at the current share price.

TGR: Is grade a key theme for you in these takeover deals?

FS: Grade is king at the moment. In the end, you want to own quality companies that can make money at current prices or even if we touch $900/oz gold. Because the market has almost no visibility on where gold prices are heading, everything is concentrated on grade because it protects your margins. Should we move into a higher gold price environment, the best leverage is probably with the current marginal producers. They have no room for error, so their valuations remain extremely depressed. Grade is king, at least for the moment.

[marketeer4] 15/12/2014 15:53

I have this feeling that AIM stocks are vulnerable to manipulation (viz shorting) since the abolition of stamp duty. All things come to end in good time but it is heart wrenching waiting particularly if you have a significant holding.

[jeanesy2] 15/12/2014 15:16

There sure is but who is it ?

[usmcgs] 15/12/2014 15:15

Still seems to be a 10k seller about

[rfv] 15/12/2014 15:12

Well written Andrew.

[sir andrew ffoulkes] 15/12/2014 14:26

Harebridge there are generally two types of player in the markets, traders and investors. Their strategies will be different, a trader may in fact prefer to stay out or stay short at the moment, whereas an investor might choose (knowing the long term fundamentals) to take the opportunity to gradually build a long position.

It is easy to complain when things go against you whatever strategy you may choose to follow but if you are thoroughly researched in a company (as I in CNR), you will know that fundamentally nothing is wrong and take this as an opportunity to lever your investment money to the long side pending a rise in price.

If however you don't feel CNR has any long term future or in fact any profit in it for you, either sell up and book your losses or simply sit tight and wait. Continually posting negative comments will not help your own position if anyone did in fact choose to pay attention and act upon what you say.