Conder Environmental Share Discussion Threads

[habayyut] 03/3/2006 11:37

wassaper

i dont know JTCod too well, so you vouch for him? i was incidentally looking at CHNS last week and bought more CDE and SVE instead... no matter ....the buses never stop coming round. I wil get into CHNS in due course, may wait for some short termers to exit before i do.

thanks. I will try to temper my put downs to others in future. ;-O

[wassapper] 03/3/2006 11:34

Hab - yes I know you are in some good stocks. Your posts (including your put-downs) are useful! I will have a look at CNC. Just looked at the chart. I am pretty well to my max at present as I jumped on the CHNS bandwagon yesterday morning. Look out for JT Cod research. He is a wise cookie. A very good value investor.

Ramping is not the issue. If it's good we should share it!

[habayyut] 03/3/2006 11:17

wassaper

im in cde and eme too, its looking very good, also hold vog from sub 30-40p....im hevily into CNC now, results monday and they will be "well ahead of expectations" as well as increase in dividend and more profitable, yet mc is less than 20m.

Gartshore and liontrust hold huge amounts. worth looking at.

Honestly not a ramp as people like yourself helped me with cde so returning a favour. take a look , dont buy unless you want to.

[wassapper] 03/3/2006 11:09

Andy - CDE is your great spot. Thank you and well done. Think you mean EME? Luck plays a huge part - I was looking at my monitor in November and EME dropped like a stone for no reason. 10 minutes research and I piled in fairly big time all the way up to 45p. Of course I am hoping for lots of gas so I can afford to buy some more CDE! Seriously!

AEL's subsidiary gave a nice update last night. AEL still an excellent value play IMHO.

Sorry for the extended OT but do you have an opinion on Heritage? I bought a lump a few weeks back as it had similar CBM potential to EME.

[andy] 03/3/2006 10:53

papillon,

Yes well spotted, nice to see some buying at over 15p.

[andy] 03/3/2006 10:52

wassaper,

Thanks, yes see you at both.

Well done on EME BTW!

[fromtheblue] 03/3/2006 10:50

If Concorde Oil ends up with a valuation as UEN, I don't think I am too bothered about a couple of pence in the current share price It remains a punt with a fair amount of risk, but with emormous potential upside IMO. Needless to say I am prepared to take on the that risk.

[papillon] 03/3/2006 10:43

Just gone up 0.5p on two 50k share buys.

[safiande] 03/3/2006 09:15

wassapper
Thanks. The point that I was mainly addressing was to ensure that OFEX holders get fair value in any transfer given that the free float under OFEX is normally smallish. Therefore how do you fairly value the OFEX stock for equalisation purposes esp as speculators could froth up the value of the share price prior to transfer? Even more difficult when the OFEX stock is a cash shell imo. No doubt they will not wish to overprice the AIM stock to attract investment. Ultimately depends on the outcome of due diligence. Yesterday´s RNS was encouraging.Regards.

[wassapper] 02/3/2006 19:12

safi - as Andy says don't worry about the Ofex to AIM transfer. I have been through it twice and with an online portfolio you don't even feel the pain! Keep things going here Andy. I have been distracted by EME for the last couple of weeks. I am very hopeful for CDE. See you at Oil Barrel and Minesite?

[andy] 02/3/2006 18:59

Drewz, sranmal,

Thanks for posting some figures for us to consider.

I have also read that these type of assets can be purchased very cheaply, particularly if the only thing needed is some investment.

[sranmal] 02/3/2006 18:49

They'll only be paying for P1/P2 reserves I'd imagine, so with a mix of say 5 mmbbls P1, 10 mmbbls P2, and say ++30 mmbbls P3, that'd keep costs down at, say, $2 for P1, $1 for P2, and no-one pays for P3.

[hard work] 02/3/2006 18:45

Drewz,
I've read it somewhere recently that it's possible to buy Russian oil assets for $1 per barrel. If they do a deal at $2 or $3 per barrel (which for a resource of say 30m barrels would equate to $60m to $90m), then are able to convert possible and probable reserves to proven reserves, increase the size of reserves, increase production by some smart investment, add on a couple of satellite fields (for which they've already got the distribution sorted with the rail terminal), what price then?

We're all waiting in anticipation for some numbers about Pechora..

[pips2642] 02/3/2006 14:00

This link might be of interest.

[safiande] 02/3/2006 11:53

Andy
Thanks. Spot on. My point about equalisation is covered in your statement ;-

'The hope is they will issue any additional shares at more or less the same price as the prevailing shareprice at the time, so that we don't suffer too much dilution '

In my only other OFEX - AIM transfer experience , the shareholders did not really obtain fair value for their OFEX stake as the AIM shares were not issued at the prevailing price which was down to the Company rather than the broker. Any AIM prospectus needs to be studied very closely.
Thanks for taking the time to reply. Regards.

[andy] 02/3/2006 11:25

safiande,

No our Ofex shares will simply transfer to the AIM, if and when CDE move exchanges.

Your broker will do that automatically, no need to do anything at all.

If CDE issue new shares, they will be in addition to our shares, (in effect a dilution), as there will be more shares in existence for the same company. But of course, the company will have the proceeds of the share placing, so the value will have increased too.

The challenge for CDE is then to use those funds to enhance shareholder value, and that is what the due dilligence being done now is all about.

The hope is they will issue any additional shares at more or less the same price as the prevailing shareprice at the time, so that we don't suffer too much dilution. If the deal is a good one, there is more chance of that as the institutions that take the placing will more readily pay a higher price.

I have spoken to CDE, but only know what is in the public domain, nothing more than that.

I hope this answers your question.

[safiande] 02/3/2006 11:16

Thanks Andy. By equalisation I was referring to how to transfer the stake of OFEX holders into the new AIM Company on a 1 to 1 basis without dilution or do you see them as 2 different companies i.e. continuing OFEX cash shell hunting for assets & separate AIM company(ies )if successful ? I know I'm jumping ahead far too much but you seem to know your stuff ( including chats with CDE )so I'd value your opinion. Best wishes.

[andy] 02/3/2006 11:01

plainz,

We are waiting for them to conclude, (or not as the case may be) a deal to take over Pechora Energy of Russia.

They are also running their eye over two other targets in the same area.

If they conclude that deal, they will be able to answer your question.

[andy] 02/3/2006 11:00

safiande,

I wouldn't diasgree there, I don't think there will be many new buyers at this price, maybe a few topping up, but no real new volume.

They intend to move to AIM, as I understand it, as soon as they conclude a deal and are therefore no longer a cash shell. (They had to list on Ofex under the new AIM rules for cash shells.)

Shame that CDE is already taken, maybe they should have utilised a different epic that was available on both exchanges?

I have spoken to the company, and there are no plans to offer any placing to existing Ofex shareholders due to the normal constraints of time and issuing a prospectus etc. I would imagine they are building a book now if they are close to concluding a deal for Pechora.

[plainz] 02/3/2006 10:56

What are the assets of these guys?

[safiande] 02/3/2006 10:36

Andy,
Agreed but can't see much new investment at 15p or so pending the announcement. Sp is probably overheated since 8p. If it moves to AIM ( new share structure , new name etc if only because LSE : CDE is taken ) how do you see the equalisation issue being handled in terms of the existing OFEX shareholders ? regards.

[leesonlookalike] 02/3/2006 08:52

agree Andy.... holding for long term, trusting the mgmt. Very Experienced.

Lee$on

[mmorrismikey] 02/3/2006 08:52

EB

OK thanks
MM

[andy] 02/3/2006 08:51

drewz,

Some valid points there, and I agree, caution is not a bad thing.

However, waiting until something is confirmed is ok, but I think you will find that the placing will have been done, and the opportunity to buy in cheaply may have gone also.

IMO we may not hear too much about the deal until it is done and dusted, and the price may have pulled away by then.

In holding CDE, I am making an assumption that Pechora want/need a deal, as do CDE, so the deal will be done. IMO Pechora may have a decent asset that simply needs investment. If that assumption is wrong, then clearly that wil cost me in the short term, but won't be terminal in the longer term as they will no doubt secure a deal elsewhere.

Given the experience of the management team here, I am trusting their judgement to pull off a food deal, there's not much point in them doing a bad one, as they are incentivized by performance rather than salary.

[english bigblls] 02/3/2006 08:51

No, not this one Mmorris.