Columbus Energy Resources Share Discussion Threads

[offerman] 03/10/2018 10:51

Jaffa , I think it's because we have more shares in issues, plus a lot of unforeseen problems at Goudron , it has been no where near a success that the 2017 webcast envisaged due to sand issues amongst things . It's still doing well and producing cash keeping us above water. The new equipment may help alleviate the issues and increase production.If successful then watch the share price increase. Plus any other news .I think confidence was obliterated from LGO day's and LK initial euphoria wore off a little because of Goudron issues( not his fault , the man is bloody fantastic) He's the right person for the job and he will deliver . Just more time is going to be needed which is often the case. Not a straight forward sector unfortunately .

[jaffa14] 03/10/2018 10:20

Brent Oil price this time last year $57 ish, Cerp over 7p,
Today oil price $85 ish, Cerp below 4p.
Can we go back to last years oil price please ;-)

[edgein] 03/10/2018 09:54

H Van,

True and NR also mentioned in the past hybrid injection of both gas and water. If they get close to that planned x6 baseline production per well on T-I I can imagine for as little as $600k set up they'd fancy some of that on Goudron. It'll keep things ticking over until they land the next in the sequence of acquisitions. Will it be T&T or SA? :)

Regards,
Ed.

[h van der h] 03/10/2018 09:12

all good info Edgein,
as i understand it PRD don't actually have any workforce and are paying for Fram operatives to carry out the works, operatives who will soon be CERP employees! at least until they buy fram from us.. they are just the bill payers for these pilots.. so their knowledge is our knowledge. LK did use the term Huff and Puff in relation to Goudron earlier this year.
Ironic really that the PRD rise from ipo has provided a tasty bag full of swag just itching to jump into cerp to compliment what i already have for a quick gain..supply and demand.... thats what moves the share price . and sentiment/news.

[edgein] 03/10/2018 08:21

Some interesting points made by PRD today:

"-- Initial Reservoir Engineering Assessment completed, independently validating the feasibility of the technical case for C02 EOR operations;

-- Combined scoping production rate of 300 bopd forecast for the initial two wells, which represents greater than 6 times current well production rates from these selected wells;

-- Independent estimates of daily C02 injection rates at least 35% less than management's estimates, resulting in a reduction in anticipated operating costs;

-- Start-up capital costs reduced to less than US$ 600,000, well below the Company's budgeted cash for the Pilot C02 EOR Project;

-- Surface equipment sourced and delivery times to Trinidad within the scope of the existing Project Schedule;

-- Exclusivity Period under Heads of Agreement ("HOA") with the local C02 Supplier to enter into a Gas Sales Agreement extended to 30 November 2018, to facilitate finalising commercial terms based on the new reservoir engineering assessment;

-- Incremental resources for the AT-4 Block, approximately 10% of the area of the Inniss-Trinity Field, to be targeted by Pilot C02 EOR operations estimated at 859,000 barrels, representing an incremental recovery factor of 12.3%;

-- Net-back after taxes and costs forecast to be in the range of US$10 - 12 per barrel based on an un-escalated WTI Spot Price of US$73.25 per barrel;

-- Potential for a significant upscaling to other parts of the Inniss-Trinity field based on current expectations of forecast available C02 Supply;

-- Subject to replicating a successful C02 EOR pilot in the AT-4 Block, potential exists to target between 8.12 and 15.62 million barrels of incremental resources;

-- Operational and environmental meetings held in Trinidad to progress regulatory consents and confirmation that Q1 2019 has been set as the target for first incremental production from Pilot C02 EOR operations, subject to regulatory approval."

That'll help production in early Q1, nice to have it all funded from PRD. I'm sure LK and SA will be watching closely as that could be an alternative for some of the water demand for Goudron.

Regards,
Ed.

[nexus7] 03/10/2018 00:48

From Rugby2015 Tue 17:371
-------------------------------------

Probable reasons to be positive

. WTI up 16% since August

2. Bonasse - a rig has been on there since July and LK will update on 10th

3. Steeldrum - once completed some quick, cheap production gains have been identified

4. Water flood pilot injections are going well

5. Rabbit out of the hat? Nobody knew about Steeldrum acquisition until it happened and I’m sure it will be the same for the next one. The company have said they are actively looking at other M&A I Trinidad and South America. LK wants to do a big deal ($100million) before the year end. It’s an ambition and not a guarantee but with just under 3 months to go don’t rule it out. I would expect they have investors lined up ready to go when the right opportunity comes along

6. EOY production to exceed 1000 bopd. I’m taking this as a given. LK was frustrated last year when his EOY target was just met. He will want to get back to the ‘under promise over deliver’ mantra

All IMHO, the current buy price 4.05p is nearly 20% below Schroeder’s 5p buy in and I feel this bargain will be gone for good shortly.

--------------------------------------
WTI: $75.20

[offerman] 02/10/2018 11:27

Agree with everything you've said in that post Smoggy.I think it will be a positive update and as ever there will be the good the bad and the ugly which is absolutely imperative to hear rather than glossed over with rose tinted specs. Going to be a scrutinising time that's for sure. We already know the first half results which went particularly inspiring if I'm honest. What's going to be important is to see whether the new equipment brought in and tweaked will help resolve the sound issues as that could materially increase B0PD .I'm also interested to know they were on about rejuvenating 1 to 2 Wells per week and that was right back in 2017 so if they have continued in that vein that's going to be a lot of Wells that they would have tried to stimulate unless they had given up bringing any more online until they resolved the production issues of the current wells. Also will be interesting to hear about waterflood although I expect it's going to need another 3 to 6 months to get any real results from these due to the delay in getting the waterflood started. I think what will be on everyone's mind will be the gold material deal? Personally I really don't expect any announcement about that at this conjuncture as it's far too early but possibly year end or end of first-quarter.

[smoggyg] 02/10/2018 11:18

I agree offerman,something is feeding Goudron and the API suggests it is from far deeper down,I think the Venezuelan oil reservoir probably reaches far into Trinidad. A deep well at Goudron, to say 12000 ft, could shock everyone but I don't think Cerp is in the financial position to afford one. I also don't think the next 6 months losses will be as great as those just reported,mainly due to a reduction in costs from Spain. I do think though that the market cap is very high and mainly due to the Leo Koot factor and it may fall unless good news arrives. The report in 8 days is likely to be positive though.

[offerman] 02/10/2018 10:12

Morning Smoggy,It does seem like SWP is 18 to 24 months away is the game changer. Maybe the SWP shallower drills extended drills in mid 2019 may also help to boost the share price if successful. I would really like to see them investigate what lies beneath ( feeder) Goudron as I remember Leo saying that was massive and far bigger than Goudron and excellent API too.

[smoggyg] 02/10/2018 10:00

The problem here is 'lack of news' recently. I see the SWP deep wells as the game changer but that could be 2 years or more away. There should be a positive update in 8 days time though and possibly acquisition news to boost the share price at some point but Cerp does lose money,£2.45m in 6 months in the last results and its market cap is over £26m,so good news is needed. Here is a box of statistical info on Cerp.///////COLUMBUS ENERGY RESOURCES ORD 0.05P KEY NUMBERS
Latest Share Price (p) 4.00 Net Gearing (%) 2.06
Market Capitalisation (£m) 26.66 Gross Gearing (%) 17.78
Shares in issue (m) 650.29 Debt Ratio 7.21
P/E Ratio -4.36 Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.36
Total dividends per share (p) 0.00 Assets / Equity Ratio 1.22
Dividend Yield (%) 0.00 Price to book value 1.27
Dividend cover (x) 0.00 ROCE (%) -22.24
Earning per share (p) -0.94 EPS Growth (%) -347.62
52 week high / low 8.03 / 3.60 DPS Growth (%) n/a

[offerman] 02/10/2018 09:39

I have Seen a lot of shares rise recently most probably due to the recent strengthen in the oil price. However, in CERPS case this hasn't had any effect on us whatsoever with huge rise. Saying that though if there is any positive news whether it be acquisition or better than expected BOPD increase should change sentiment and coupled with the rising oil prices should give us a good uplift and a better supporting level.

[offerman] 02/10/2018 09:26

Thanks Carp

[carpadium] 02/10/2018 08:10

offer, this data is 3 years old but shows the Saudis needing over $100 pb then.

[offerman] 02/10/2018 07:51

It benefits them to have higher oil prices . There was a oil price league table of what each country needed to make money from it and Saudi I think was 80$ pbSome countries needed about 100$pb Remember Saudis flooded the market with oil with took ppb down to about 28$ They didn't want shale producing too much and having market control share. So they flooded market to curb shale as shale producers needed very high price to be sustainable . Saudis also needed higher prices but with massive cash reserves could afford to force the price lower for quite some time. But there has to come a point when the Saudis would start to run out of cash which started to happen and I know the universities over there were affected and had extra charges and bills put onto them as the kingdom started to run out of funds. Hence higher price needed and right on cue up the price goes. Only problem is the show produces will flood the market again and all repeat itself. Of course the Russians want a high oil price as that is a massive part of their GDP.

[offerman] 02/10/2018 07:45

Watch shale production increase as before and bring down prices. Also the report about opec powerless to control prices is rubbish , they have been controlling fluctuations for eons .!!

[nexus7] 01/10/2018 10:46

From LGO-fan Today 09:22
-------------------------------------

RE: Interims

the other thing to note is that LK has said he would exceed 1000bopd. That to me means “peak production”, otherwise I assume he would have said 1000 bopd on average for the month of December.

For those going to attend the presentation on the 10th: it’s worthwhile asking to clarify the stated target.

Anyway, I am pretty convinced he is talking about peak production. He has set his 500bopd target (or was it 550?) last year and deliver that on a peak production basis if you recall.

So with that in mind, I am certain he will deliver the 1000bopd peak production by EOY (subject to SD-deal going ahead):
- peak production in Q3 was 648bopd
+ 250 from SD and your are around the 900bopd mark.
Add impact of measures to improve production in SD, Bonasse, Icacos and potentially WF from Goudron and you start to see why LK is so confident in delivering on exceeding the 1000 bopd by EOY.

All ImHO

[smoggyg] 01/10/2018 10:30

This is a copy of the net back Cerp gets from Petrotrin per barrel Carp,it is far less than $34,this is from the recent results.///////o Q2 peak production of 648 bopd with a steady 530-575 bopd delivered month on month

-- GBP1,030,000 incurred on capex and workover activities during 1H 2018
-- Netback per barrel of US$13.13 achieved in 1H 2018 (1H 2017: US$5.69 per barrel)

[offerman] 30/9/2018 16:42

"#CERP has been seeking access to the potentially transformational #SWP low-risk exploration opportunity for over 5 years and the restructuring now enables the Company to undertake the technical and planning work necessary to allow us to commence drilling in 2H 2019" – Leo Koot

[nexus7] 29/9/2018 21:30

Oil on Biggest Tear in Decade as Global Supply Cushion Vanishes

► Traders bracing for $100-a-barrel crude as Iran sanctions bite
► Saudis, Russians see no need to augment existing supply lines

Oil posted the longest string of quarterly gains in more than a decade as impending supply disruptions threaten to fracture a global market with little margin for error.

Futures rose 1.6 percent in New York on Friday while London-traded crude racked up its fifth quarterly advance, a streak not seen since the first half of 2008. This historical echo comes as consumers once again eye supply disruptions and worry about the availability of backup supplies, just as they were a decade ago when the benchmark hit an all-time high above $147...

[offerman] 29/9/2018 21:13

Great post Carp Valid points and yes , slightly perplexing as to why he would want more ipsc with such hefty tags. Maybe he was envisaging a change or been lead to a potential tule change that swayed him to these types of contracts? I agree though with you that it does seem a little strange. I guess all will become clear and soon..... hopefully!

[brasso3] 29/9/2018 19:45

Carp

A good post and summary about what is holding the T & T oil industry back.

[carpadium] 29/9/2018 17:51

offer, putting aside the fact that CERP are paid some $4-5 less than the prevailing WTI price, at say $49 a 30% royalty is paid to government/Petrotrin which would result in CERP receiving $34.30 per barrel.

Over $50 WTI SPT kicks in at 18% applied to the net amount after royalties paid.

As an example, @ $72, less 30% = $50.40, less SPT @ 18% = $9.07, CERP receives $41.33

So a $23 uplift in price results in CERP receiving only an additional $7.03

You may recall that interview (posted by jcg 4848) by theoilandgasyear in which Leo criticised SPT and commented on the $50-60 WTI 'death zone'. Later on in the article it puzzled me why he then said 'we are very interested in picking up additional IPSCs !

Hopefully all oil companies operating in Trinidad are keeping up the pressure to revise the SPT structure, change has been talked about for years. At some stage it has to come.

[nexus7] 29/9/2018 16:48

Supplementary petroleum tax (SPT)

SPT is chargeable on the gross income (derived from the sale of crude oil) less royalties and overriding royalties paid on the crude oil sold. The tax is computed separately in respect of land and marine operations and is a quarterly tax based on the actual gross income for each quarter.

The SPT is deductible in arriving at profits subject to petroleum profits tax.

-------------------------------
Trinidad and Tobago
Corporate - Taxes on corporate income

[offerman] 29/9/2018 11:15

Trouble is thought that everyone keeps saying we get crucified for SPT tax over i think 50$pb so we dont make that much .