Columbus Energy Resources Share Discussion Threads

[garnhiem80] 25/2/2018 23:14

Sounds like you think it’s wrong to go for a 30 year concession Ross? Nothing wrong with having a discussion on what potential it could have.. even if it may not involve CERP..

Even if the concession isn’t granted, what we looking at? $150k per year over 6 years (there abouts), still better than the current position!

$500k per year saving at least with further potential for added value.. and why is it a ramp, Because It’s positive?

[arrynillson] 25/2/2018 17:49

Rossannan - Nexus has kindly reproduced a post detailing the facts relating to the offers in Spain - I know you don't like it when facts are presented as people seem more readily influenced by facts than your opinions so it's good to see the facts out there again!

No one knows what the concession will be worth if CERP are successful but it could be an attractive asset and if CERP are unsuccessful with the tender they at least improve their legacy situation in Spain.

[nexus7] 25/2/2018 16:49

Do you remember JOhn (Onceatraders)?
Here one of his last posts.

------------------------------------
onceatraders - 24 May 2016 - 08:23:03 - 59 of 484
12bn.

Spain will play a significant part in the restructuring of LGO IMHO. I cannot see it remaining on our books long term, at the very best LGO will only remain as a partial stakeholder in the future.

We only need to look at historical data to come to this conclusion. Twice in the last 4 years, LGO have had a sale / jv on the asset.

In 2012, LGO signed a heads of agreement and exclusivity for the outright sale of the Spain asset for a consideration of 8m Euros ($8.9m) to Ravi Corporate Sociedad (Spanish company. It did not go through, but the price is a indication of the assets worth when we still had 5 years remaining on the licence.

In 2014, we entered into a heads of agreement to JV (partnership) the asset at a valuation of $2.8m for a 65% stake, to Pansoinco (Italian company. Licence remaining 3 years. LGO cancelled the partnership agreement themselves, soon after the results of GY-664.

The above valuations were obviously on a higher oil price, but lesser time licence agreement. Once LGO secure a 10 year licence extension, they will be in a good position to obtain optimum valuation for any outright sale or JV.


Icacos is beyond LGO at the moment on a go it alone basis. There is a possibility of shallow well drilling, but the real prize is the significant Herrera Sandstone formation. This area would require a deep drill of 14,000ft at a probable cost in the region of $6m. The only drill done in the area close to this depth was FRM-1, drilled in 2008 to a depth of 12,301 feet, found oil shows in the Lower Cruse and Lengua formations at around 11,700 feet before the well was lost for mechanical reasons.

A JV would be the best move here IMHO. A capex funded partner to take on the deep well for a percentage of the deep licence. This would release LGO to concentrate on shallow wells at Icacos on a test production.

LGO has opportunity's beyond Goudron, but it must obviously move forward within its means. Hence the GS and re-completions/perforations plan which could lift production and maintain a income to remove risk completely.

Best regards

John

[arrynillson] 24/2/2018 09:12

Rossannan - intelligent people weigh up all the arguments before making a decision - LK has done that hence the confirmation CERP will tender for the new 30 year concession - if CERP lose to a competitor it's still a ' win ' because new concessionaire assumes many legacy issues!

[nexus7] 23/2/2018 22:11

Nothing to read this weekend? Try this one:


Page 1
STATE OFFICIAL NEWSLETTER No. 303 Thursday, December 14, 2017 Sec. III. P. 123787

III. OTHER PROVISIONS MINISTRY OF ENERGY, TOURISM AND DIGITAL AGENDA 14747

Resolution of November 27, 2017, of the General Directorate of Policy Energy and Mines, which approves the abandonment plan in the concession for the exploitation of liquid and gaseous hydrocarbons «Lora».

[arrynillson] 23/2/2018 15:15

Garnheim - I hope CERP do get a new 30 year concession as I do see value there on a ROCE basis but I'm happy for LK to make an informed judgment about future investment as he seems to listen to well reasoned arguments.

[garnhiem80] 23/2/2018 14:39

Would not having a concession put restrictions on this..

hxxp://www.enos-project.eu/sites/operational-storage-field-site/hontomin/

Potentially could revive the local economy.. its the moral responsibility of CERP to do what’s right for those that it truly effects. It may mean securing a new concession for someone else to take on.

[garnhiem80] 23/2/2018 14:11

Any idea what the La Lora concession covers, Would it also permit an exploitation permit for other activities?

Not looking for a ramp.. more so, who other would be interested in a 30 year concession! CERP wants it gone after all.

[holly day] 23/2/2018 12:12

arrynillson, I think we both agree that Leo is currently fully focused on Trinidad. The mere fact that he hasn't written off Spain shows he has done some due diligence to hang in there. The key for me is that he has done all he can (barring external factors) for the time being as we await the gov't to come out of their eternal siesta! but I am pleased that whilst it is currently a dormant field, Leo has taken the steps to reduce costs. I'd say Ritson should be ready for his P45.... another saving!

[garnhiem80] 23/2/2018 11:55

Is that on the basis that no other company shows interest during the tendering process?

From what I can see, going for a new concession opens up more options for added value, than not going for it at all. :)

[arrynillson] 23/2/2018 10:58

Holly Day - you are right to be cautious about NR projections for Spain but it's clear that although Leo wasn't enthusiastic about Spain he has weighed the arguments and is now on board with the attempt to generate value from this asset - I merely quoted the projected 1500 bopd figure because NR had documented it and Leo would, almost certainly, have read it and probably discussed it with Neil.

If they were looking at restoring circa 100 bopd, the figure you mentioned in your post we should all be looking to strap on parachutes!

[the guardian] 23/2/2018 10:36

holly, it would be pure guesswork to make any sort of prediction. As you say, the waterflood programme was to be brought forward by six months and so it would be nice to see some hard evidence that it is going to plan. Normally, a company would inform shareholders when the permits are applied for but I am not sure if CERP will do this.

[holly day] 23/2/2018 10:18

So, of the 4 bits of news (apart from a quarterly update), Spain has well and truly gone on the back burner. With WF, BOLT and SWP related news still awaited, do peeps think we might hear about one of those before end of March? The idea of extra money from Schroders/placing was to accelerate the programme(s).... The WF was brought forward by at least 6 months. I wonder if we'll hear about that in a separate RNS?. Unlike Spain, Trindad authorities seems more proactive. Are we seeking any more approvals?

BTW Arry, I'll keep my tongue dry until I hear from Leo!. There was a lot said by Ritson, but delivery?....

[the guardian] 23/2/2018 07:15

The API and the EIA can never agree on inventories, even though they use the same source figures. It's all smoke and mirrors, which is why the press have to make changes to their predictions and comments almost on a daily basis.

[nexus7] 23/2/2018 00:23

Oil Jumps as Surprise U.S. Supply Drop Dispels Shale Boom Fears

→ Nationwide crude inventories fell by most in five weeks: EIA
→ Cushing storage at lowest since 2014 as crude exports surge

Oil surged to the highest in two weeks as American supplies unexpectedly shrank and exports surged, dispelling fears that a new shale boom will leave the country awash in crude.

Futures advanced 1.8 percent in New York after a government report showed U.S. crude stockpiles slid 1.62 million barrels last week, the largest draw in five weeks. That contrasted with a 2.9 million increase estimated in a Bloomberg survey ahead of the release...

[offerman] 22/2/2018 22:02

Thanks Arry

[arrynillson] 22/2/2018 21:20

TG - thank you for your kind words - helping to educate 12bn is a major part of my community service but it's pleasant sometimes to stray from the nutters thread and exchange views in a more civilised manner!

[the guardian] 22/2/2018 19:22

arry, thank you for your contribution to this bulletin board. You have my utmost respect.

[arrynillson] 22/2/2018 18:21

Holly Day - I have found the figures NR projected in the offer for the concession extension to the Spanish Government - 5 million euro investment to generate 1500 bopd - hope you manage to pick your tongue off the floor - now you know why I'm enthusiastic!