Columbus Energy Resources Share Discussion Threads

[the guardian] 10/2/2018 21:34

offerman, It could have been longer but I retired when I was 52. Downside was that I took up share trading and lost most of my money within a couple of years.

I think logically, which is good for engineering but not for the stock market.

Never mind, health is more important than money. Take care mate.

[offerman] 10/2/2018 20:59

Wow TG take my hat off to you my friend.. 35 years.

[the guardian] 10/2/2018 19:08

rossannan, if you look at the graph you will see that the end of December terminates with the yellow line. The graph then splits into two lines and if you count along 3 months from there, you come to the end of March which results in the figures I gave.

If you don't know how to read a graph, you could read the end of April as being the end of March, in which case it shows circa 750 bopd for the high case.

I was an engineer for 35 years, so I can read a graph!

[offerman] 09/2/2018 22:29

Ross I think 1600bopd was the high end as Garnheim said. 900low case by end of December. I'd be happy with 900-1000 year end as double today. So would hopefully reach around 9-9.5 p end December.

[offerman] 09/2/2018 22:24

My personalThought is around 650bopd

[garnhiem80] 09/2/2018 21:38

“We estimate this stimulation work is expected to provide a sustained incremental rate which would result in a year end production run rate of 550bopd and 2018 production averaging 900bopd.”

hxxps://columbus-erp.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/CERP-Re-Initiation-131217.pdf

[garnhiem80] 09/2/2018 18:48

I quite like the ‘2018 Budget - sales profile - low case’ chart too.. the one showing Goudron baseline and GY-664 production producing 550+bopd.

It doesn’t show waterflood producing great numbers straight away! But it does indicate some good performances from a few well workovers?

[carpadium] 09/2/2018 18:35

Low case end of 2018 = +60% = 900bopd.

Hi case = 1550bopd

Middle case therefore = 1225bopd

[garnhiem80] 09/2/2018 18:26

Doesn’t really matter as long as Leo meets his average 2018 target of 900bopd.

[hilly_71] 09/2/2018 17:30

Agreed TG.

I'm not getting overly hung up on production figures, but just focussing on the fact that the brokers have a target price of 26p and Schroeders have been hoovering up the shares.

[the guardian] 09/2/2018 17:17

Before you all become very disappointed once again, I would refer you to slide No6 of the December powerpoint presentation. The forecast figures for March are 580 bopd in the low case and circa 650 bopd in the high case. The forecast output begins to ramp up in the following quarter.

It may well be that we are ahead of schedule. Equally well, progress could have been hampered by another legacy issue. I therefore think that it is foolish to post an
expectation of 750 bopd by the end of March, that figure being well above the best case.

Over expectation led to a fall in share price at the end of December when the forecast target was achieved, so please consult the slides. They are on the CERP website for all to see.

[garnhiem80] 09/2/2018 16:39

Oil in place figures, historic oil production, oil grade and depths of oil pay have no comparison to RRL?

Even the poor initial production figures from pads 4/5 have a good upside with a secondary recovery plan.. on average total net pay on pads 4/5 were higher ( although larger pay was identified at shallower depths )than pads 1/2/3.

Just need to allow the CERP management team work their magic.

[arrynillson] 09/2/2018 16:14

Rosie - if you are going to compare Range water flood with CERP you should minimally acknowledge that capital expenditure wise they are quite different - Range had to drill new wells at huge expense to make their scheme work - CERP have already drilled the wells needed - the CapEx was paid for by previous shareholders - a fact most LTH are acutely aware of!

[northpole2] 09/2/2018 15:38

He mentioned it in discussions after the AGM, he had a number of other offers but liked CERP best. With a track record of running an entity in the UK for the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ie TAQA) which had 3,000 employees, 60,000 barrels per day of production and a market value of around US$2.5bn when he left, he would almost certainly have been extremely well remunerated in that role. When he joined TAQA the UK entity had 6 employees and he grew it from there! He clearly won't be earning anything like that at CERP and is only taking 50% of his fees in cash. So, let me say it is a well-researched educated guess. He clearly believes in the potential of CERP and has a wee bit more experience in the oil & gas industry to make that judgement than you have.

[12bn] 09/2/2018 15:03

Northpole2,how do you know that LK could have got 'much bigger bucks'? Are you his friend or accountant or are you guessing?

[arrynillson] 09/2/2018 14:43

Northpole2 - you are right about 12bn just guessing - anyone can do that - as to whether they are believable that depends on their record - oh dear 12bn - let down by your boastful claim not to research this share and consistent wrong calls since change of management!

[arrynillson] 09/2/2018 14:36

12bn - thought you advised readers to abandoned ship some weeks ago at 2p - have you compensated those that took your advice?

[northpole2] 09/2/2018 14:34

How do you know it is still the same flea bitten ship? You are just guessing. LK came out of retirement to seek to unlock the potential he saw in CERP, he didn't have to join and could have gone anywhere else for much bigger bucks given his track record. He clearly believes and so do the likes of Schroders. You are just guessing, as simple as that. I think it's about time you abandoned ship. "12bn is a' bailin cap'n, watch out for the huge wave when he hits that water".

[holly day] 09/2/2018 13:43

rossannan, I agree that it is not without cost, however, 2 points I'd make: 1) At CERP we are dealing with a team who are very experienced in WF. 2) I am sure Leo is taking a calculated risk with WF (after all, he is demonstrably keen to reduce costs) , hence the start with a couple of wells.

I see WF to help achieve a more stable, sustainable production to keep the till ticking over. Hence I am not overly hooked on production numbers at this stage. I agree it now all about the 'other' plans, which imo, should not be PART of a quarterly update, more a case of when the a material info becomes available.