Columbus Energy Resources Share Discussion Threads

[carpadium] 08/7/2018 22:08

If you look at December the line finishes, the end of the 2018. You therefore have to read the vertical monthly lines as 'at the end of' that specific month.

So at the end of July it shows forecast production as somewhere between 700-1050, increasing from June's 500-720 figure. By Dec 31st the graph shows we should finish the year between >900 and >1500. I take the figure as the average for that month, should any poster be going to the AGM perhaps they could clarify.

Edit. Look at the Q1 update, Average production for March declared as 542bopd, the 'end of' March line showing the same as forecasted.

[arrynillson] 08/7/2018 21:43

Ross - let’s face it if you were the Swedish goalie you’d be telling us Arry ‘slab head ‘ Maguire’s header from the corner was ambiguous!

[the guardian] 08/7/2018 21:40

To me, the graph reads 700 - 1050 bopd at the end of June. However, there is confusion as to whether this is supposed to be an average daily production over the course of the month or if it is simply a spot figure which means that the average will be smaller.

The dip in the graph is an arbitrary allowance for outages and to be honest, I don't understand why it is shown in a specific month.

At the end of the last quarter, I was told by management that we had achieved a spot figure of just over 600bopd on the final days of the quarter.

[carpadium] 08/7/2018 20:17

Glad you think so Brasso.

[carpadium] 08/7/2018 20:16

Evening offer, don't think you'll be far out with Q2 production. Hopefully touch 600.

As for eoy a producing M&A deal between now and then could bury guidance targets.


7.00am tomorrow hopefully!

[brasso3] 08/7/2018 20:12

Carpadium

CERP is valued at a premium to TXP and TRIN based on P2 reserves and production. That premium is due to the caliber of Leo Koot.

[carpadium] 08/7/2018 20:09

Brasso, like it or not shareholders get quarterly reports. Last quarter they detailed each of the three months production and we should expect likewise for Q2. We therefore should see what they have achieved in June alone, a mere ten days in the past by the time we get the info.

Premium? What premium? We may have had at >6p but at the present share price I don't think so. If there's the smallest trace it's probably down to the known M&A expectations, an excitement missing from most companies. But then, they don't employ a dedicated M&A Director.

[brasso3] 08/7/2018 19:46

I think the market wont be happy waiting another 3 months to find out where things are. CERP has a lot of expectation already included within the price due to the Koot factor. If the marker seems to lose that confidence then the premium will be taken away. Similar things have happened with PPC (Peter Levine) and PMG (Tom Cross) in recent years.

[carpadium] 08/7/2018 19:33

No, not of today. By the end of Sept, Q3, 780-1180 to be on course.

[brasso3] 08/7/2018 19:20

Ok its seems we are coming from different points of view.

Agreed, Q2 should be averaging 500 - 600 BOPD. I am sure they will comment on current production(post period) when they give an update so as of today they need to be around 700 - 1050 BOPD.

[carpadium] 08/7/2018 19:16

Hang on!

We, at least I, am talking Q2 figures. July figures are part and parcel of Q3.
You'd hardly expect July figures to be part of next weeks update!

[offerman] 08/7/2018 19:15

Evening CarpI think we will have around 500-560 average for 2nd qtr results At least it's going the right direction.Don't forget upcoming announcement M&A incoming shortly so that will be an addition hopefully for 2nd half of the year . My year end bopd prediction is 800-850 bopd

[brasso3] 08/7/2018 19:02

Carp

Its looks quite clear to me.

June - 500 - 720 BOPD
July - 700 - 1050 BOPD

Each increment on the graph represents the start of each month.

[carpadium] 08/7/2018 18:58

Brasso, that's the same presentation as I've just highlighted. I still cannot see any expectation to the levels you quote within that data.

I stick with CERP's 500-720 and if they come within that framework they are not misleading anyone.

[brasso3] 08/7/2018 18:39

Carp

I took those number from the Dec 2017 presentation (page 6):-

[carpadium] 08/7/2018 17:39

Suggest you all look at the production forecasts for the end of June again.


LOW case 500, HIGH case a shade over 700 (allowances made for unplanned shutdown)
Taken from their Production 2017 actual and 2018 forecast.

If you take their illustrated 2018 Budget sales profile this shows 550-720.

Tell me where please an end of June '18 forecast states 700-1050Bopd.

[offerman] 08/7/2018 10:11

Absoloutely bang on TG

[offerman] 08/7/2018 10:10

Could be brasso but maybe near term news that's promised will underpin share price despite poor production results

[the guardian] 08/7/2018 09:04

Brasso, correct.

If the company cannot meet its targets then it should revise them at the earliest opportunity, saying why they will not be met and what will be done to meet the revised targets. Sitting tight lipped for 3 months is not the answer.

I hope that the M&A is pretty well underway because unless there is something to support the sp, it will fall significantly. Leo cannot boast about what is going to be achieved in the year ahead because of the skills of he and his team and then fail to deliver. Recipe for disaster.

[brasso3] 08/7/2018 08:35

If they don't hit the 700 BOPD lower case then I expect this will be sub 4p. The market will not be kind to missed targets.

[offerman] 08/7/2018 08:30

Morning BrassoPersonally I can't see that and those targets being missed , however with the recent M&A deal clue announcement is imminent that then might offset the sluggish bopd performance . Bopd might increase depending on the upcoming deal . Looking forward to three RNSs over the next two weeks. And one presentation by LK on 17th - Quarterly Update - M&A announcement - AGM Then LK malcy spot in 17th

[brasso3] 08/7/2018 07:27

According to CERP forecast, production should be 700 - 1050 BOPD by the of this month. Surely an update this week?