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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colefax Group Plc | CFX | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 870.00 | 08:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 870.00 | 870.00 | 870.00 | 870.00 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| HOUSEHOLD GOODS & HOME CONSTRUCTION |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 23/1/2025 15:06 by pireric Absolutely fair, and the liquidity is the main thing that puts me off trying to step in and help you correct the valuation differential to fair value. But I think that will be true of a lot of investors. If this was more liquid, I'd be buying quite aggressively, regardless of some of those other factors. So for me that would be the big factor.Eric Eric |
Posted at 23/1/2025 13:30 by pireric I do find somethings it's easy to fit a valuation to a narrativeThis stock is comfortably cheaper than it was last week. That's nothing to do with the Green discount. It's due to most investors not knowing that there was a material shadow earnings upgrade yesterday. Because who gets ready access to Peel Hunt research? Hardly anyone. I've seen that before plenty of times at other stocks. Price discovery usually prevails, even if it takes weeks, and CFX has seen that plenty of times in it's own history. It's also illiquid which puts off the marginal buyer a lot of the time. Lastly, on screener, it may come across at 10x P/E, but investors then won't realise there is such a large net cash pile or that the earnings forecast is probably materially lowballed. The valuation will probably improve from here. Even 6x ex cash is very low by CFXs own history, based on the above factors. And yes maybe governance is another factor - but the market tends not to care as much when a company has deployed textbook share reductions and buybacks compared to one's that haven't Eric |
Posted at 22/1/2025 14:54 by pireric OK I am actually touch out on 100p but with some loose maths I can get to 95p+If we take a split of 58/42% on first half second half profitability. Then you get about £7.5m of PBT for FY25. Then on fx rates, each cent is about 170k of profit. The first half rate was 1.29. Let's assume 1.25 for the second half. Then that's an incremental about 170*0.5*4 cents which is about £7.85m of PBT for the year Times that by 75% for tax and you get to £5.9m of net income. Divide by the weighted share count for this financial year which looks like about 6.03m, and you get 98p. It would be 100p if it wasn't a weighted share count and you did it ok the actual run rate. Plus or minus 8p off that for a range Whichever way you dice it, 4x ev/ebit is the wrong multiple for this business. And also 3% share price rise on a 37% earnings upgrade is very miserly. Expect it to push on once the new EPS numbers hit investors screens and when they inevitably do another large scale tender offer. Would not be surprised if the company decide to cash out at some point and realise a meaningful takeover premium from here. GL to holders 2.5-3% interest on a corporate cash balance, though may not all be held in an interest bearing account. On 18m that is 450k to 540k. First half was 232k so looks pretty reasonable salver Eric |
Posted at 03/6/2024 14:01 by hornets89 Ha small world Salver - I can't imagine there's many of us in the Venn diagram of "Watford Fans" and "Colefax Investors"! |
Posted at 01/9/2023 09:04 by essentialinvestor Parsimonious!, but another wedge of equity retired. It's an easy outfor institutional investors. |
Posted at 22/7/2009 09:24 by investinggarden Avoid recommendation from Growth Company Investor |
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