Colefax Share Discussion Threads

[salver2] 22/11/2024 21:47

Very good article on Colefax on The Mikro Kap by David Katunaric

[salver2] 24/10/2024 07:14

They fell well short on the buyback-unsurprising as wasn’t attractive enough for existing shareholders

[salver2] 22/10/2024 10:52

To me these buybacks are great for existing shareholders (as long as you don’t sell your shares -at end of year 2025 they should have about 22 million in bank less 5 million in buyback-so you are left with approximately a 44.8 million market cap Co with 17 million cash -so Colefax is valued at 28 million plus cash approx 6-7 times earnings post tax -extremely low I would say for such a business-I won’t be selling at this price

[hornets89] 22/10/2024 09:32

A 10% buyback here, only uses £5m so carrying significant cash on the balance sheet still. (cash was £17.8m as of April and they've had half a year of cashflow since then).

I hope they're actually earning a decent rate of interest now on this cash as it would be material to earnings.

I do wonder what their long term plans are.

Valuation remains very attractive unless earnings go off a cliff, which I don't expect.

[salver2] 26/9/2024 11:08

A reasonable AGM statement here -on about 8 times earnings plus cash -pretty cheap for a luxury business

[hornets89] 22/8/2024 09:58

900p paid this morning

[velocytongo] 21/8/2024 13:18

Thanks for the heads up. It’s v often to buy this share in reasonable volume so good to be able to add to an existing position.

[salver2] 21/8/2024 09:07

I notice since the results there has been a persistent seller of around 1000 share lumps which have been working the price down slightly but have been well absorbed- I’m expecting a tender offer or buyback in next few weeks

[hornets89] 31/7/2024 08:27

Yes nice robust results, and a promising outlook I think.

Another tender offer soon?

Still a bit mystified at how little interest income they receive on their cash holding, would make a difference.

[salver2] 31/7/2024 07:29

I thought an excellent result in the circumstances-relatively better than Sanderson Design and others in the sector-very tightly managed company

[davebowler] 29/6/2024 13:20

HTtps://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/stockwatch-why-i-think-these-two-shares-are-good-value-ii532127?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=

[hornets89] 03/6/2024 14:01

Ha small world Salver - I can't imagine there's many of us in the Venn diagram of "Watford Fans" and "Colefax Investors"!

[salver2] 31/5/2024 13:10

So am I lived in Northwood and went to school in Watford

[hornets89] 31/5/2024 10:52

Good spot - yes I am!

[salver2] 31/5/2024 10:28

Yes I agree as they are a very conservative company ( a good thing)- although a larger dividend might not go amiss - with your handle are you a Watford supporter?

[hornets89] 31/5/2024 09:55

Ah I see. Honestly I think that's way too low (and indeed their estimate of FY 24 seems low too, at 73.9p EPS. Lets say a weighted average of 6.5m shares x 73.9p = £4803500. They already reported £3.28m in the interims).

Doesn't matter too much I guess.

Wow, love that long term hold! Fair play!

[salver2] 31/5/2024 09:28

Yahoo finance put down next years eps at 58 p ( lower than this years 70- 80 eps( about 6.22 m shares x 58 ( about 3.7) - have held this stock since 1998 and have about 148000 shares spread over 3 accounts which must make me the largest shareholder I suppose outside institutions and management - they were 69 pence in 1998 unfortunately I sold a large slug at about 2 pounds nearly 20 years ago- should have kept them!

[hornets89] 31/5/2024 09:01

Agreed, you've got to think there are decent cost savings to be made if it were taken over/merged and therefore it's very attractive to an acquirer one day.

Can I ask where you've seen this estimate for £3.7m post-tax profit? Is that for FY 25? Seems low.

[salver2] 31/5/2024 07:23

I agree with the above comments and cand understand the low interest income- should be around 700k a year- it’s risen nicely lately and on next year’s earnings estimates ( around 3.7 million after tax - (which I think they will beat ) 8.5 times earnings stripping out cash .A very well run profitable outfit trading too cheap in my opinion- I keep expecting some sort of corporate action here - maybe a merger with Sanderson??

[hornets89] 30/5/2024 11:42

Hi guys, I've been building a position here, I absolutely love the valuation.

Strip out the cash and you're looking at 5/6 PE. Just ridiculous for a mature firm with a good name that has been capable of growth (but admittedly in a difficult macro spot right now).

No doubt there's more pressure from institutions for more tender offers so can see the share count reducing again by a big chunk. Plug in some very modest profit growth over the next few years, and a reduced share count, and I think we can see a much higher return than people expect.

The point above about the interest income is absolutely correct though. Did anyone ever get any answer about why it was so low? Interest income on their cash levels should be non-trivial at 5% rates...

[woozle1] 11/2/2024 12:09

If the interest is that low it would imply either (i) treasury management is poor or (ii) that net cash balances are only high at period end.

[salver2] 30/1/2024 15:27

I agree with all your comments Jane , the management usually under promise and overdeliver and I suppose it suits them to have the share price ridiculously low to buyback another large slug later in the year -this share should in my opinion be north of £10 a share -a post tax earnings figure of around 5.5 million plus around 20 million cash at the end of the year at 8 times earnings would make them just over £10 a share

[jane deer] 30/1/2024 14:52

Salver 2

I agree with you. Strip out the cash (£17m) and the PE looks around 4 times FY24 (maybe lower). My only two concerns are: 1) the weakish outlook statement for FY25, although management always seem to be cautious; 2) I cannot understand how interest earned can only be £40k on an average cash balance of c£20m during the half year - that implies they are getting around 0.4%pa interest. I would think they should be getting 10x this amount.