Cloudified Share Discussion Threads

[daddy warbucks] 08/5/2016 15:10

Effect = reflect

[daddy warbucks] 08/5/2016 15:07

Whilst I think Churchill have been treated despicably, if we are looking at the BIT 'problems' in a wider context, I don't think you can ask the Government to jump in at the first call of asking.There are always two sides of an argument and the government can't defend someone until the facts are known. This is why we have the arbitration processes similar to ICSID.It would look bad if the government stood up for every company only to find that company was at fault or fraudulent in their actions. They would lose all credibility, even if just one case went bandit.Having said that, if governments don't stick to the rules of the game as in the recent 'default' by the ROI, then that is when they should intervene.I do believe Churchill will win this case, but we have to wait whilst Indonesia play their games. Their actions only effect badly on themselves.

[masarap] 08/5/2016 15:01

Stephen, I share your frustration although my MP is hopeful of a substantive reply from the Foreign Secretary so that may be interesting. I'll share the gist of course.

The other point is that at least the BIT has provided for international arbitration and ICSID has ruled favourably on jurisdiction because of the BIT.

[stephen1946] 08/5/2016 13:05

International treaties are put together by international countries, nobody is dragged screaming and shouting to the table to sign such treaties, but when you do it is encumbant on all signatories to obey the rules of said treaty.

Somebody intimated that if the U.K. government interferred in a tribunal bound case it would constitute an offence, that is complete nonsense, the signatories are the people who make up the treaty and they are the ones to enforce all aspects, certainly not the litigants.

This is where all these international treaties are failing, nobody is willing to lay down a marker and maybe appoint an office in government whereby officials, readily available, can be contacted to oversee any discrepancies.
Masarap's work is splendid, but neither he nor CHL have the power or the tools to circumvent the bullying and corruption which is becoming more apparent as the world gets smaller.

The U.K. government are useless lately at protecting even tourist let alone companies that invest millions overseas and are blatantly robbed.

[patviera] 08/5/2016 12:27

AndyDon't complicate thingsFirstly if bad news comes out don't bet on getting even 3p back!!So yes there is 18p of downside but 18p is 100pct of your moneySo forget about 18p..can you afford to lose all of your money?!The upside isn't infinite..it's what we settle at or what we win in a court judgementNow if that's let's say 100p then you weigh up the odds and decide how much you want to risk hereIt's not an investment here based on earnings..it's literally a betLike going into a bookie However it's calculated risk and id rather put money on this bet than any horse or football team!!Directors have bought a lot of stock so I'm going for 75pct oddsGood luck and forget about stops as this isn't that kind of stock as the real move is on an RNS!! Then could be too late

[andy] 08/5/2016 12:17

Pat,

The maximum downside risk currently is 18 points, whereas the potential upside is infinite, so the odds favour the upside.

A spreadbet with a stop or guaranteed stop may not work here as they can easily issue seemingly bad news and spike the price down to take out all the stops, then run it back up again.

I think that even if bad news were announced it would bounce off the low on the hope that CHL could do something, so probably maximum risk is around 15 points here for a long bet.

If the price goes sub 15p it will become almost compelling IMO.

[andy] 08/5/2016 12:13

Wow that's so profound!

"Debbie" should be advising Warren Buffett!

[stephen1946] 08/5/2016 11:42

Genuine answer, i will make an appointment with Santa Claus and see what his take is on this. Postscript, ireminisces, have you bothered to read any of the headers that debbie has been good enough to post for our attention?

[stephen1946] 08/5/2016 09:12

It will be very interesting if the two parties most involved in BIT corruption and industrial corruption generally are invited, so that industry in the U.K. can see the whole picture and maybe throw in few examples.
Icsid and Uncitral are both directly involved in investigating and hearing evidence from many banana republic's, not least for example, CHl and OXUS.

Not inviting a representative from icsid or uncitral would leave an enormous gap in the why's and the wherefore's. I would sincerely hope, CHL are invited being directly involved in, alleged corruption.

[theorb] 08/5/2016 09:07

If findings were inconclusive surely that would mean that there is not enough substance to the forgery claim to find CHL 'guilty', then case dismissed, carry on with the real tribunal!

[qut] 08/5/2016 08:55

What if ICSID's findings on the forgery case are inconclusive? Where does that leave things?

[stephen1946] 08/5/2016 07:23

Daddy thats a good find, but its window dressing, a chance to press the flesh, Cameron inviting world leaders, and i bet not one is involved in any sort of publicised corruption.

[daddy warbucks] 08/5/2016 06:46

I wonder if someone from Indonesia will be attending?Prime Minister David Cameron has said he wants to put tackling corruption at the "top of the international agenda" ahead of a London summit on the issue.The international anti-corruption summit - the first of its kind - is aimed at exposing, punishing and drive out global corruption.Political leaders, businesses, sporting organisations, and charities will meet at Lancaster House on Thursday.Mr Cameron says corruption is "the root of so many of the world's problems".

[qut] 07/5/2016 21:46

Is this forgery case a question of ROI proving beyond reasonable doubt that there is forgery or CHL proving beyond reasonable doubt that there isn't forgery... or something in between?

[patviera] 07/5/2016 19:28

I'm hereI'm laughing at Debbie's post"We may go up or down and a long way"Really Debbie??!!!How astute

[humblepie] 07/5/2016 18:34

sold this dog over the last week ..nothing happening till june at earliest.easiest trade going..

[debbiegee] 07/5/2016 18:34

Unfortunatly the price represents more the length of time we expect to wait rather than value for the odds here.
When you think that the price hit 78 when Indonesian partners bought in giving us initial finance to start the court case all those years ago !
We have actually never been closer but hey ho 5 weeks does not fit into a T20.
Those of us that have been here a while have witnessed it spiking and tanking and it can be very swift.
Lol mms take their bids off while they read and digest news or take their asks off and wait for a while if they think its good,and so the rally starts !
At the moment its the thought of 5 weeks but any whiff of good or disastrous news this will move a lot quicker !

[theorb] 07/5/2016 15:50

rossannan,
If CHL win the forgery case and of course the share price goes up and then settles down again as you suggest, dont forget that the 'settled down'price is not indicative of the real share price. CHL shares move quickly on relatively low volumes and the daily share price is the price of the last trade. The last trade is not necessarily indicative of a price that everyone is willing to sell at and cannot be taken as a benchmark of share value if the majority of shareholders refuse to sell at this price, hence when this share is more heavily traded the price can rise very fast as serious volume buyers know they have to pay the price.