Close Brothers Share Discussion Threads

[stoopid] 12/3/2024 21:23

Popit, Well, you crack on and buy some of the other banks you say are better. If they are so much better why do you keep posting on here?I have bought here and will take Royal London and their 6m buy as a good sign.

[popit] 12/3/2024 21:12

stoopid

The forecast eps for 2025 is 64p and that gives a PE of about 6

There are no forecasts of eps over £1 in the next 3 years and so your statement about a PE of 2 or 3 was wrong

There are UK banks though such as OSB and STB with a very low forecast PE of 3 or 4 in the next two years but CBG is certainly not one of them

These other banks also do not have the very high risk of an unknown liability

So as I said before, in comparison to some other UK banks, CBG looks expensive

[123trev] 12/3/2024 19:32

It’s crazy that the assets here are largely ignored and that this compensation culture cause so many issues now and how historic they can become no wonder the UK has become so uninvestable.

[stoopid] 12/3/2024 14:51

So Popit, as you can see, i didn't need to make up a P/E figure, I'm quite capable of working it out, unlike yourself it would appear.....

[stoopid] 12/3/2024 12:45

The EPS for 2023 is distorted by the provisions for Novitas. If you strip out the provisions for Novitas of £100m this year the EPS is more like 2021/2022 figures of 111.5/140 per share.This would give a current P/E of approximately 3. The suggestion of a P/E of 6 would mean the share price was or should be 700/800.

[123trev] 11/3/2024 10:59

Popit I think he may have been looking at some past eps there and innocently inferring a possibility indeed stock screener does have your figure and you may well be correct in your assumptions it remains a risk of course it does don’t think anyone is doubting that.

[tsmith2] 11/3/2024 10:28

filtered loon

[popit] 11/3/2024 10:10

stoopid said

"Also on a forward P/E ratio of 2 to 3 CBG look very cheap"

Where are you getting these figures or are you just making them up ?

Market Screener has a consensus forecast 2025 eps for CBG of 64p

This gives a PE of almost 6

This is far higher than the 2025 forecast PE for other UK banks like OSB or STB and these other banks do not have the very large risk of an unknown liability

CBG does not look like very good value when compared to these other UK banks

It looks expensive

[123trev] 11/3/2024 10:03

Agree totally and if this turns out to be a non issue and claims smaller than expected this will quickly fly even with a hit to total profits this year if that was it and done it’s back to business as usual but as with all things there are risks.

[karv1] 11/3/2024 08:02

For old shareholders this stock must really suck ,I'm sure in other countries they would of asked for some resignations due to the share price fall.
As new shareholders we are using this situation and bad news for a chance in a life time for a 75% discount on the share price and what could be the best paying dividend stock ever.
Excluding last few weeks this is the cheapest it been for 25 years.
The lloy statement would suggest the share price drop is overblown.

[123trev] 11/3/2024 07:19

I think the problem here is that in the original investigation of 13000 cases the ombudsman upheld around 42% of cases can’t remember exactly but sure that rings a bell. CBG felt under the current circumstances there was no need to recognise any liability in the current accounts unlike Lloyds who set aside the £450 mill which kind of accepts a responsibility in my view. I don’t think any of them could give an indication of where all this is heading but hopefully not as badly as some expect like I say staying in for the long term.

[blueclyde] 10/3/2024 18:08

That is why the FCA opened the investigation because they were getting complaints that these claims were being rejected by the companies that made the loans. They simply do not have the capacity to deal with them. The Martin Lewis has jumped on the bandwagon stirring up another 750k claims but everyone can clearly see this is turning into a huge fraud where people knew exactly what they had signed up to. Every claim is unique as it would be bespoke based on that individual's circumstances and in most cases probably benefited them to have it structured that way. Unless the FCA are going to hire thousands of people to study each claim individually to weed out the rampant fraud then this is not going anywhere. My money is on a statement from the FCA that this practice has been ended some time ago and some sort of statement on guidelines for the future. I also have want Close Brothers to provide more colour on things until the review is completed in terms of their thoughts on any exposure if any because at present the whole banking business has been zeroed in value.

[123trev] 10/3/2024 09:06

Obviously the irony here are car loans like these are much more expensive now anyway and would get much more so with a bad outcome.

[123trev] 10/3/2024 08:56

I still can’t actually get my head around how the FSA are going to actually deal with this issue the more I look into it the more complex it gets and the legality of the finance broker being held accountable seems strange when the dealers and dealerships had the final say on the rates given. Obviously they made their minds up early on but in 2017 Close Brothers were warning dealers not to use the sharp practice then you have the fact that some dealers gave much lower rates to shift the cars. Obviously some people got stung and wrongly but sorting out which ones is going to be a nightmare.

[blueclyde] 08/3/2024 15:04

I see the asset manager Mattioli Woods got taken over today for £432 million. They had 15 billion AUM. Close Brothers asset management division has 19 billion AUM. So the banking and brokerage business currently valued at 0.

[tsmith2] 08/3/2024 13:41

Morning fall was on virtually zero vol

[tsmith2] 08/3/2024 12:50

rinse a little, rise

[123trev] 08/3/2024 11:38

Bought back in earlier never should have sold just going to keep these long term if they shine again then all good and when I look at the odds I either lose a little or gain a lot and after all it’s only money lol.

[tsmith2] 08/3/2024 08:06

hoping north of £4 today

[blueclyde] 07/3/2024 21:10

Exactly. PPI was a scam because people paid for something they did not need. For the car loans people bought a car so got the use of the loan. The debate is the variable part which may have nothing to do with Close Brothers as they would not have negotiated this. So a small percentage of the total at worst. Hence why I think this is a storm in a tea cup and will gap up big time on results. Based on chronic volume you can bet that if there was anything bad in the coming results it would be showing in the price...

[riverman77] 07/3/2024 20:25

Surely the worst that could happen is they have to pay back the excess interest on any identified cases - which would be a fraction of the figures mentioned above. If the FCA demand any more then would expect Close to challenge in the courts.

[davius] 07/3/2024 20:01

> The car loan book for CBG is £2 billion so the FCA could even say it should all be
> paid back to customers

I would say that that is complete nonsense. When we were mis-sold endowment policies the mortgage companies weren't asked to return all of our loans. The question is how much overcharging was there, if any.

In the case of our endowment, we received something like 10% as a refund. A similar result for CBG would mean something of the order of £200m.

Not quite a storm in a tea cup, perhaps a shower in a puddle.

But a good opportunity, at close to £4, for a very decent return.

[blueclyde] 07/3/2024 17:29

Results a week on Tuesday. Ultimately it is going to come down to how aggressive the shares get bought between now and then because when the results are announced with further info I am expecting the shares to gap up big time. Before anyone starts if I did not expect this I would not be holding long into results. dyor ect.

[tsmith2] 07/3/2024 16:27

Could see some v good momentum next week